osfan24 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18z GFS is pretty much a total swing and miss on the arctic front/pre-Christmas storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18z GFS is pretty much a total swing and miss on the arctic front/pre-Christmas storm idea. Still has plenty of runs left to correct, until then 9 days out and it will be back by 00z runLike how the Gulf is shaping up Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 18z GFS is pretty much a total swing and miss on the arctic front/pre-Christmas storm idea. Many more iterations to come. It can only get better from cold and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 18z GFS is pretty much a total swing and miss on the arctic front/pre-Christmas storm idea. We get a dusting! No taint! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Euro and CMC have same look so that is comforting for the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We get a dusting! No taint! You do on that run. I do not. It’s ok I feel good about it. At least it’s cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You do on that run. I do not. It’s ok I feel good about it. At least it’s cold. Shit at least give me some rain followed by a flash freeze or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18z GFS splits the 50/50 low and sends a piece of energy back over Ontario This happens in a lot of big east coast snowstorms.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 WB 18Z GFS… at least Christmas is cold…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Shit at least give me some rain followed by a flash freeze or something. Only we could have what appears to be a frigid Christmas but still better than average chance of it being green…or brown. Bah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Amped said: 18z GFS splits the 50/50 low and sends a piece of energy back over Ontario This happens in a lot of big east coast snowstorms.. It was *this* close to producing a massive Miller B early on the 24th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 What happened to letting this storm pass to see how it affects next week and beyond? This is a pretty big beast I'm sure it's messing with the models performance down the road 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS… at least Christmas is cold…. Now that is some cold. Just need the snow to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 With windchills…most exciting thing about the 18Z WB GFS. Close only counts in horseshoe games. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Kind of an ideal look leading up to an east coast snowstorm, other than a chunk of the PV is coming with it lol. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Kind of an ideal look leading up to an east coast snowstorm, other than a chunk of the PV is coming with it lol. if we cant get snow for that 500mb chart...might as well quit the hobby and watch the washington wizards 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: if we cant get snow for that 500mb chart...might as well quit the hobby and watch the washington wizards 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Man! That GEFS is like a picture frame of what we need for snow! Let's see continued improvement and one of the OPS runs is gonna spit out a big dog! Just hope we get the full benefits! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Kind of an ideal look leading up to an east coast snowstorm, other than a chunk of the PV is coming with it lol. The last few cycles have left that shortwave up in the Yukon, which is cutting off our PNA ridge. Not sure entirely what that entails for us or what we’d want… taller PNA ridge would help our storm dig farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 32 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What happened to letting this storm pass to see how it affects next week and beyond? This is a pretty big beast I'm sure it's messing with the models performance down the road I bet we get more clarity come Saturday to Monday as the current storm that is coming tonight clears out of the way and the models see the new pattern. We have to see where the baroclinic zone sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The last few cycles have left that shortwave up in the Yukon, which is cutting off our PNA ridge. Not sure entirely what that entails for us or what we’d want… taller PNA ridge would help our storm dig farther south. I'm thinking maybe that wave drops SE and becomes the trigger for the following coastal storm around the 27th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 There we go. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 the 50/50 popping up thanks to the increasingly strong block really helps you guys. this is a tremendous storm signal if the blocking forces it underneath, there’s basically no ceiling to this setup haha 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: There we go. Is that good? I feel like I have no idea what looks good anymore. That looks like an off shore fish storm to me with a WAR to the NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 A little offshore but nice to see a signal at this range for a coastal with plenty of cold in place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: There we go. #CAPEStorm2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: A little offshore but nice to see a signal at this range for for a coastal with plenty of cold in place. Impressive precip signal too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: #CAPEStorm2022 Exactly....Eastern shore signal. I think CAPE should start his own forum for coastal areas and off shore oil rigs. LOL j/k 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the 50/50 popping up thanks to the increasingly strong block really helps you guys. this is a tremendous storm signal if the blocking forces it underneath, there’s basically no ceiling to this setup haha We’ve definitely gotten nice trends on the Atlantic side the last 24 hours or so. More mixed out west it seems. I’d love for that ULL to dig for Memphis, but haven’t seen any sign of that. Still time for large changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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