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November 2022


Stormlover74
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Stronger SE Ridge on Euro and CMC so Nicole tracks further west with heavier rains across the area. But there is an intensity difference between the two models. The Euro has less wind and the CMC more. A deeper low pressure will pull in more cold behind it like the CMC has. The OP Euro may be too weak since the Euro control is stronger with higher winds.

 

6C05FEFC-E22D-4318-9B05-F6BF19184A79.thumb.png.d98269a52b342718069ba949914bb71e.png

1CD6158A-2197-44A6-844F-7EC18D4679A1.thumb.png.e76dcf8038a8dadcdac78abd75eef454.png


Euro control stronger like CMC


A639F9C9-2E67-43C3-A609-016ACA8FA420.thumb.png.652d3c63cf924e6cca32ef345fb4625c.png

 

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The next 8 days are averaging   56degs.(50/63) or +7.      Nov. 14-23 are averaging  44(38/49) or -2.

Reached 68 here yesterday.

Today:   70-75, wind w. to n., clearing skies, 48 tomorrow AM!

68*(92%RH) here at 6am.      67* at 8am. (actually 67-68 since midnight.)      70* at 10am.         71* at 10:15am.    72* at 10:30am.     73* at 11am.       74* at 11:30am.      75* at 1pm.       76* at 1:30pm.    Reached 77*(37%RH) at 2:30pm>>>>>held here for 1hr.45mins., RH down  to 29%.          70* at 7pm(24%RH).       65* at 9pm.     62* at 10pm.

NICOLE Wind Swath Gusts shows path:

1668243600-b25d7A6viUs.png

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Clear skies (higher) 850 MB temps near 12-14C.  Believe there will be some 80 degree readings around the area today.  Northeast flow cools it down Tue / Wed before warmer SW flow Thu / Fri.  This coming weekend we'll see how much of the tropical fetch can merge with approaching front.  11/13 - 11/22 Looks mainly chilly - brunt of cold is east but surge of the chill comes in by the 18-19.  Last week of Nov moderates more towards or above normal

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Stronger SE Ridge on Euro and CMC so Nicole tracks further west with heavier rains across the area. But there is an intensity difference between the two models. The Euro has less wind and the CMC more. A deeper low pressure will pull in more cold behind it like the CMC has. The OP Euro may be too weak since the Euro control is stronger with higher winds.

 

6C05FEFC-E22D-4318-9B05-F6BF19184A79.thumb.png.d98269a52b342718069ba949914bb71e.png

1CD6158A-2197-44A6-844F-7EC18D4679A1.thumb.png.e76dcf8038a8dadcdac78abd75eef454.png


Euro control stronger like CMC


A639F9C9-2E67-43C3-A609-016ACA8FA420.thumb.png.652d3c63cf924e6cca32ef345fb4625c.png

 

The cold for next week is crazy and such a shock to the system.  Think the whole area finally goes below freezing next week, Chris?

 

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10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Clear skies (higher) 850 MB temps near 12-14C.  Believe there will be some 80 degree readings around the area today.  Northeast flow cools it down Tue / Wed before warmer SW flow Thu / Fri.  This coming weekend we'll see how much of the tropical fetch can merge with approaching front.  11/13 - 11/22 Looks mainly chilly - brunt of cold is east but surge of the chill comes in by the 18-19.  Last week of Nov moderates more towards or above normal

First 32 for NYC and the entire area next week?

 

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14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was another day of incredible warmth for November. Records tumbled in many parts of the Northeast.

Records included:

Binghamton: 71° (old record: 70°, 1978 and 1950)
Boston: 76° (old record: 73°, 1938, 1948, 1959, and 2015)
Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 71°, 2015)
Buffalo: 74° (old record: 73°, 1948 and 1956)
Burlington: 76° (old record: 75°, 1948)
Caribou: 71° (old record: 66°, 2020) ***First November with 2 70° days***
Concord: 75° (tied record set in 1948)
Hartford: 76° (tied record set in 2015)
Houlton, ME: 71° (old record: 69°, 1938)
Islip: 74° (old record: 69°, 2015)
Manchester, NH: 77° (old record: 75°, 2015)
Millinocket, ME: 71° (old record: 68°, 1938)
New Haven: 74° (old record: 69°, 1948, 1959, and 2015)
New York City-LGA: 75° (tied record set in 2015)
New York City-NYC: 75° (old record: 74°, 1948 and 2015)
Providence: 75° (old record: 72°, 1948, 1959, 1994, 2015, and 2020)
Richmond: 82° (old record: 81°, 1975)
Rochester: 72° (tied record set in 1948 and tied in 2005 and 2015)
Syracuse: 80° (old record: 74°, 2005)
White Plains: 74° (old record: 72°, 2015)
Worcester: 72° (old record: 71°, 2020)

Tomorrow will be another very warm day. A few places could approach or reach 80°. However, a cold front will bring cooler weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week. Beyond mid-month, there are some emerging signals that Atlantic blocking could try to develop.

Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with a November 1-7 average temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average).

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was -17.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.482 today.

On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.726 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.792 (RMM).

 

It only hit 70 at JFK yesterday-- today will likely be half a dozen degrees warmer or more

 

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13 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

As a prelude to expected warmest week of Nov 1-7, can confirm from my tracking that Oct 31-Nov 6 now has new records, mean max of 70.0 is a tie, mean daily 63.50 and mean min 57.0 break existing records. This is based on the provisional values for today, the mean daily and mean min are probably safe if the current reported min of 66 falls a few degrees. (58 for the tie mean minimum)

Also the minimum of 64F on 5th broke the daily record of 63F set in 1938 and today's (6th) now confirmed value ties the record 66F from 2015 (several have already posted that 75F is a new daily record max, yesterday and today add two to the former total of 29 days of 75+ in November at NYC). The monthly record high minimum was 67F on Nov 2, 1971. 

 

The Nov 1-7 period will likely come out a lot warmer than that

 

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