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November 2022


Stormlover74
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I have a fair amount of experience with LE chasing and also trying to avoid heavy stuff because I needed to get somewhere.  I typically have been in and around the tug because I had a camp east of there.  Basically you can be unlucky and lucky at the same time: lucky to be in the band you came to see, unlucky because there are times when you just cannot drive.  I have an HD truck which is pretty much set up with snow in mind and it usually comes down to viz issues. Cant see, cant drive.  The truck will move no problem (within reason) but not if I go into a ditch or something because of viz its game ova.  

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1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

I am actually really excited for this. Even being in Monmouth county I think with it coming down as hard as it looks like it may, it should be at least our first wintry precip here this season.

Yep looking forward to maybe seeing something. And welcome back. I haven't seen you post the past few winters 

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Does anyone know some 5”/hr or higher snowfall rates we’ve had in the region? maybe March 2018 #4, February 2013, and January 2011? Are there any others?

In MMU, maybe January 2021; March 6, 2018; Maybe January 2016; December 30, 2000; February 8, 1994.

I’m sure others around this wide region could say Boxing Day.


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6 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Does anyone know some 5”/hr or higher snowfall rates we’ve had in the region? maybe March 2018 #4, February 2013, and January 2011? Are there any others?

Try the former largest ever NYC snowstorm of December 26, 1947 which had a period of 4"-5" of huge flakes you could choke on if you breathed them in.       That storm had minimal conditions and little wind......just about 26" of vertically falling snowflakes.

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51 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Does anyone know some 5”/hr or higher snowfall rates we’ve had in the region? maybe March 2018 #4, February 2013, and January 2011? Are there any others?

it was one of the big winters of 13/14 or 14/15 but we had a storm here that dropped 6 inches in one hour at BDR in Feb.    It was the year that March ended up cold and dry...

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1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

Does anyone know some 5”/hr or higher snowfall rates we’ve had in the region? maybe March 2018 #4, February 2013, and January 2011? Are there any others?

A snow squall on 12/24/13 dropped roughly 5” in Central Suffolk in about 40 minutes, a rate of 6-7” per hour. Unfortunately this is somewhat unofficial since ISP only recorded 1.7”, I was northeast of there.

I’d never seen snow accumulate that rapidly.

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A major lake effect snowstorm is raging in western New York State. Through 4 pm, Buffalo has seen 13.9". However, just south of the city, excessive snow has fallen. Excessive snowfall has also fallen downwind of Lake Ontario. Snowfall amounts include:

Blasdell 2 SW: 48.0"
Elma 3 SW: 48.0"
Fort Drum 1 SSE: 42.0"
Hamburg 1 NE: 43.0"
Orchard Park: 54.0"

Back in the New York City-Philadelphia region, flurries and snow showers are possible tonight before midnight. Afterward, a cold weekend will follow with the season's coldest air pouring into the region by the end of the weekend.

Generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week before it turns briefly milder.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +11.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.313 today.

On November 16 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.693 (RMM). The November 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.753 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.4° (1.4° above normal).

 

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8 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

They appear to be weakening but we could certainly see something in our area 

Activity is moving very rapidly to the east.  Snow squalls currently in the Stroudsburg area near the Water Gap.  Squall also moving through the Reading area.  From radar I would guess that you would get no more than 5-10 minutes of snow in a burst when these move through.

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