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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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No kidding…
you know the euro has never liked a clean ridge to date, re that mid ext range 

And in fact the GFS isn’t altogether very clean either.  They both it keep building these over/top high-pressure systems that drill cold llv flow into the foundation of the higher heights. It’s an aspect oft seen in spring handling … great! We get to butt bang April’s in the same year… 

The sun is feeble and getting feebler by day.  This late in the sol season … a SE-NE equation of state flow injecting under ridging overhead … you don’t get two be warm from ridging over head. Fleetly different universe up there

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Rivers and creeks are running extremely high after 6"+ fell last Friday over the mountains and foothills up here along with whats falling today over some of the same areas.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Gray ME
1057 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

MEZ008-009-013-014-020-021-025-026-182300-
/O.EXA.KGYX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-221019T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Franklin-Southern
Somerset-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-
Including the cities of Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, Rangeley,
Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua, Long Pond,
Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman, Farmington,
New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Athens,
Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra, Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Greene,
Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls,
Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo,
Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin,
Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle,
Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, and Waldoboro
1057 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, west central, and
  western Maine, including the following areas, in south central
  Maine, Kennebec, Lincoln, Sagadahoc and Southern Somerset. In
  southwest Maine, Androscoggin. In west central Maine, Central
  Somerset. In western Maine, Northern Franklin and Southern
  Franklin.

* WHEN...Through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Storm drains and
  ditches may become clogged with debris and fallen leaves.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Saturated soils from recent rainfall and additional locally
    heavy rain forecast through tonight.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Radar says yes 

Tallest cocorahs report is 2.87" at Pownal, about 15 miles north of PWM.  There's pretty good density of recorders in that part of the state, though a small but intense cell from last night's TS show might've snuck between all the stations.

Had 1.23" thru 7 AM, with 45 minutes of dog-scaring thunder (none particularly close), from 1:45 to 2:30 AM.  At least another 1/2" since with RA- and mid 50s currently.  This storm plus 3.37" from last week's has October above 5", though there's still a few more tenths to hit the 5.63" average.  Wettest month since July of last year.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No kidding…
you know the euro has never liked a clean ridge to date, re that mid ext range 

And in fact the GFS isn’t altogether very clean either.  They both it keep building these over/top high-pressure systems that drill cold llv flow into the foundation of the higher heights. It’s an aspect oft seen in spring handling … great! We get to butt bang April’s in the same year… 

The sun is feeble and getting feebler by day.  This late in the sol season … a SE-NE equation of state flow injecting under ridging overhead … you don’t get two be warm from ridging over head. Fleetly different universe up there

Euro/GFS trying to create a closed low beneath the building ridge. Wonder if that signal gets stronger as we get closer. 

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6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Tallest cocorahs report is 2.87" at Pownal, about 15 miles north of PWM.  There's pretty good density of recorders in that part of the state, though a small but intense cell from last night's TS show might've snuck between all the stations.

Had 1.23" thru 7 AM, with 45 minutes of dog-scaring thunder (none particularly close), from 1:45 to 2:30 AM.  At least another 1/2" since with RA- and mid 50s currently.  This storm plus 3.37" from last week's has October above 5", though there's still a few more tenths to hit the 5.63" average.  Wettest month since July of last year.

I was going by the stations on weatherunderground, but I'm sure some big totals existed in a narrow area.

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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z  GFS has the raging nor’easter off a single closed isohypses up to eastern seaboard now too

Can't help but wonder how this abundance of baroclinicity due to the jet fuel SSTs around the hemisphere is going to play out this cold season. Should be fun if we can introduce some arctic airmasses into the fray. Maybe celebrate the 30th anniversary in style.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can't help but wonder how this abundance of baroclinicity due to the jet fuel SSTs around the hemisphere is going to play out this cold season. Should be fun if we can introduce some arctic airmasses into the fray. Maybe celebrate the 30th anniversary in style.

A colder version please.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just edge it east 100mi and we'd be nude for days.

I've been less upset at breaks up with long term relationships compared to that storm. What a rip your heart out event that was for me. All the hype from media, NWS, my parents telling me this would be a storm they had growing up etc. And watching 6" of paste melt while 6 miles NW had 18"

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42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can't help but wonder how this abundance of baroclinicity due to the jet fuel SSTs around the hemisphere is going to play out this cold season. Should be fun if we can introduce some arctic airmasses into the fray. Maybe celebrate the 30th anniversary in style.

Yeah.  Could be fun.  Of course… let’s  get the pattern right. I mean if it turns out to be some kind of compressed shit show flow so fast nothing can really mix or anything it doesn’t really matter. We’ll end up with that dry mild winter everyone has self soothing horse blinders for. 

Recall, we did talk about this in the tropical thread though but how the low ACE might make things interesting in that regard - hypothetically speaking

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I actually have to extend that 20" contour further northeast to near Ray's current location (Groveland coop had over 20" from that event). I noticed it a few years ago but never updated it.

 

Also have to extend it SE past my current area. The really tight gradient is near Walpole/Franklin.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah.  Could be fun.  Of course… let’s  get the pattern right. I mean if it turns out to be some kind of compressed shit show flow so fast nothing can really mix or anything it doesn’t really matter. We’ll end up with that dry mild winter everyone has self soothing horse blinders blinders for. 

Recall, we did talk about this in the tropical thread though but how the low ACE might make things interesting in that regard - hypothetically speaking

Yea, baroclinicity only helps if the upper levels allow the system to avail of it.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

December1992_snowfall_revised.PNG.4c7fd25f83ea97ce8e0e91e7ccfd04d8.PNG

 

Almost Halloween....time to give Scooter nightmares.

We’ve obviously beaten this horse 1000 times over the years but I still can’t get over that snow shadow in the Connecticut River Valley… I mean can you imagine if that storm hit with like 1.5°C colder through the column?

I mean even if that thermally requires a slightly lower PWAT we’d still be talking about astronomical stack heights.  We wouldn’t have had those big gaps like that in lower elevations either. some of course.

Yup as awesome as that storm was -one of the greats of all time

……it left something on the table. They all do. Although actually… I’ve always thought that December 23, 1997 as having the highest efficiency I’ve ever seen. Which is interesting because I don’t even know if that registers in a lot of people’s personal annals.

Went from a 3 inches of wet snow ending as light drizzle in the interior forecast to 23.5 inches of powder… Doing so in pretty much less than six hours… Skirted by a large area that easily got an excess of a foot with pretty much the same forecast in place…? Certainly that is a strong argument for maximizing efficiency and really for all intents and purposes NOT leaving anything on the table

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