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October 2022 OBS/DISC


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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s not good . Huge GFS humper . Anything that shows drought .. he drops trow :stein:

He had a whole lot of friends on here right along with him for several months.

It’s good to see the awakened folks realize it was futile. Mother Nature loves her averages… except if it has to do with cold :lol:.  But moisture, it’ll even out.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

He had a whole lot of friends on here right along with him for several months.

It’s good to see the awakened folks realize it was futile. Mother Nature loves her averages… except if it has to do with cold :lol:.  But moisture, it’ll even out.

Meteorologically woke?

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4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Nope. Turns out my 4"x4" post that I planted in a bucket of cement 10yrs ago finally rotted. Wx station went tumbling down.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Ouch, that does stink.

 

2.85" in the 8 incher.  I usually don't use it for non-frozen, but - let's be honest - this is the most liquid it'll see all winter.

Screenshot_20221014-210205_Gallery.jpg

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I always laugh when folks say can you imagine if this would have been all snow? I go yeah, If my aunt had balls she would have been my uncle too.

Not sure if that's in response to my post, but I understand why you can't make that comparison.  T'Was a (poor) attempt at self-depicting humor.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It might change sure. Was just stating what they currently show. I have a feeling mid—late Nov and especially December are the only good winter months

Weeklies look interesting but not sure they’re cold.
Anyways just commenting on next two weeks. Looks like we go into Novie without 32F. We mow and grow.

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The modeled larger synoptic evolution, as we head into week 2, is beginning to remind me of a similar evolution that took place between about October 26 through November 11, 2020.   Not an exact analog, but bears a lot of similarity nonetheless.  

I'd even caution, the signal may merely be fought by biases in either the Euro or American sources, in the present model trends - both of which would tend to damp the scale/dimensions of eastern N/A mid latitude ridging at a D8 - 13 range as their normal tendencies.  Long words for, 'this could smooth toward a warmer episode.'

It's a specter that's been in that time range now for like 4 or 5 days ...really since it first came over the outer temporal horizon of the guidance, and as we get closer...if it started to look more like this ...

image.png.5171eda9fac4c6b90991e8b05dfe4e68.png

.... I would not be surprised.    

 

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