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Temperatures reached 70° or above in many parts of the region this afternoon. Tomorrow will be another warm day.

The remainder of the week will see milder temperatures. Highs will mainly reach the middle and upper 60s. The temperature could reach or exceed 70° during the peak of the warmth. However, more cold air could arrive during the weekend with the cool weather continuing into next week.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +13.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.395 today. That broke the daily record high of +2.508, which was set in 2008.

On October 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.141 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.944 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.0° below normal).

 

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For what its worth: Some 2022 NWS evaluation of tracking for IAN, and note the overall 2021  season stats.

So this one was not so good for the GFS (2022).

Please see attached..2021 first.  Ian second.  I did not attach intensity stats so as to keep this a little simpler.  This presentation may have already appeared on the American Weather Mid Atlantic forum.

Screen Shot 2022-10-11 at 9.55.10 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-11 at 9.57.05 PM.png

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 72°

Slightly cooler air will arrive to end the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 65.8°; 15-Year: 66.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 67.4°; 15-Year: 68.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.7°; 15-Year: 69.6°

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The next 8 days are averaging  60degs.(54/66) or +2.

Month to date is  56.7[-4.8].     Should be 58.1[-2.0] by the 20th.

Reached 69 here yesterday.

Today:  68-72, wind w. to s., increasing clouds late, 57 tomorrow AM.

Under 1" tomorrow.     After BN period 18-22, watch for a record in the 80's near the 26th.

The Flip comes near the 22nd:

1665554400-XBN3U6HIF3M.png

57*(75%RH) here at 7am.       62* at Noon.      Reached  65* at 3pm.        62* at 8pm.

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This was the 4th coldest October 1-11 at Newark on record at -7.1 and 54.2°.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 11
Missing Count
1 1935-10-11 51.5 0
2 1965-10-11 53.8 0
3 1938-10-11 54.0 0
4 2022-10-11 54.2 0
5 1996-10-11 54.3 0


 

1E41C340-9AC0-4FF0-A1FE-386E4FB49907.thumb.png.d667ee8f5640d438487ee6efa20489d8.png

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Another mostly spectacular day ahead with partly sunny and seasonal upper 60s/low 70s.  Thu (10/13) front comes through and rain come through in the afternoon.  Perhaps the brunt of the heaviest rain is north of the area. By Fri (10/14) its dry and sunny with a very pleasant weekend on tap.  A reminder how key those rains were to open the month.  Chill down 10/18 - 10/22 before redge builds into the EC - still not certain this wont be a ridge that has more rain with it,but overall warmer than normal look 10/23 / last week or so of the month.  I do think we fall short of any more 80s but we shall see.

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20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam holds off rain til tomorrow evening now

Yes and most all of the latest guidance is "meh" on amounts.  We'll see but I'm not expecting a widespread 1"+ type event.  More typical CF type passage for this time of year.  Guidance not especially robust although some parameters are favorable for locally heavy convective type storms especially NNJ.

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Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with periods of rain. Some locations could experience a thunderstorm. It will be mild with temperatures rising into the middle and upper 60s. The mild weather will continue into the weekend.

However, more cold air could begin to arrive late in the weekend. Early next week could turn much cooler.

Out West, Portland reached 80° for the 8th time this month. The previous October record was 6 days. That record was set in 1952 and tied in 1980 and 1991.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +21.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.318 today.

On October 10 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.330 (RMM). The October 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.143 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.0° below normal).

 

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11 hours ago, MANDA said:

Yes and most all of the latest guidance is "meh" on amounts.  We'll see but I'm not expecting a widespread 1"+ type event.  More typical CF type passage for this time of year.  Guidance not especially robust although some parameters are favorable for locally heavy convective type storms especially NNJ.

We don't really need so much rain anymore. Half an inch is just fine.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and mild. There will be some periods of rain and perhaps a thunderstorm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 67°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 70°

Much cooler air will move into the region early next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 65.5°; 15-Year: 66.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 67.0°; 15-Year: 68.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.3°; 15-Year: 69.2°

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Good Thursday morning everyone,  Think it may be an interesting next 5 days around here with isolated 4" amounts somewhere in the NYC subform. My best guess is w CT.

In sum: Modeling is poor along the east coast for qpf ending the 6 hrs at 8AM this morning. As you saw Tatamy with 0.23.  Here in Wantage 0.03 and still raining. ATL area wasn't handled very well by the models this morning either (all considerably bereft of qpf).

For qpf between now and 12z Friday I will follow HRRR, HRDPS, RGEM.  Just not sure why GFS has been stuck so far west... and so it's part of the options, but not one that I favor. 

Sunday-Monday: looks interesting to me as modeling is trying to take some short waves (or a single short wave?) and carve out quite a cold closed low aloft in NYS/e Great Lakes somewhere. Ahead of that has be a pretty good pulse of WAA. That should yield widespread rain here, some of it heavy for a few hours...maybe more so NJ/LI/southernNew England?

 

 

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66 and cloudy, rain , showers nearby.  Perhaps the Yankee game may be possible.  Front and rain clears by Fri pm.   Overall dry and great weekend.  Upper 60s/ low 70s and partly or mostly sunny.  Chill down arrives by Tue (10/18) evening as sharp trough pushes the coolest of the season so far with frost and freezes for many especially inland areas outside the city/coast.   Tue / Wed stuck in the low / mid 50s.  Moderate by Thu (10/20) then warmer next Fri (10/21) and weekend.  

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