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11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

0.78" rain here as of 1PM and we've had some good downpours since.  Total for October through 1PM 6.07".  Had 4.36" in September, 2.89" in August, 2.53" in July and 3.44" in June.

It was "dry-ish" over the summer, but really not very droughty IMBY.  I know the south shore was a different story.

Thankfully we’ve made a good comeback down south. Several downpours today. Guesstimate just under 1”. That’s what she said…..

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Although the ongoing system has generally produced less rainfall than modeled, a few locations saw more than 0.50" of rain. Through 5 pm, Philadelphia had picked up 0.72" today. Islip had received 1.16".

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. Additional showers are possible. Wednesday will be another warm day.

With the MJO having come out of Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures.

November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +22.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.664 today.

On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.535 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.386 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.2° (0.7° below normal).

 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although the ongoing system has generally produced less rainfall than modeled, a few locations saw more than 0.50" of rain. Through 5 pm, Philadelphia had picked up 0.72" today. Islip had received 1.16".

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. Additional showers are possible. Wednesday will be another warm day.

With the MJO having come out of Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures.

November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +22.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.664 today.

On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.535 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.386 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.2° (0.7° below normal).

 

Looks like November will flip back to warmer than normal, Don?

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and drizzle. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 71°

Cooler air could return late in the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.7°; 15-Year: 63.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.8°; 15-Year: 64.0°

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s the way it currently looks. Whether it turns colder late in the month remains to be seen.

I'd rather that wait until December, a mild November followed by a cold December is a really good sign for winter isn't it?  I wonder if October will finish right near normal?

 

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20 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

NOAA doesnt like this winter at all :(

Not that that means much

Our locals like Lee Goldberg explained that enso only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather.  He compared how different the 20-21 and 21-22 la ninas were from each other.

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Our locals like Lee Goldberg explained that enso only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather.  He compared how different the 20-21 and 21-22 la ninas were from each other.

 

Right. La Nina comes in different forms. In our area I’ll take it over an El Nino anyday

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