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NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023


bwt3650
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Not going to say it hasn't "torched"  here...but it didn't turn out as bad as I thought. By all means, it was not good. I just thought the temps were going to be higher. I think we had 1 day in the 50s. Lots of 40s and 30s and even a dusting of snow overnight. The rain sucked, and overnight lows staying above freezing- I guess those were the two worst take-aways

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3 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Not going to say it hasn't "torched"  here...but it didn't turn out as bad as I thought. By all means, it was not good. I just thought the temps were going to be higher. I think we had 1 day in the 50s. Lots of 40s and 30s and even a dusting of snow overnight. The rain sucked, and overnight lows staying above freezing- I guess those were the two worst take-aways

Yeah we’ve certainly had meltdowns like this if not worse before. Usually those come alongside long periods of snowy weather- we haven’t had that much of that, but winter has a long way to go. 

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On 12/30/2022 at 7:00 PM, powderfreak said:

Hope everything works out Mreaves, and wish a fast recovery.

 

On 12/30/2022 at 10:59 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Feel better Mr Eaves

 

On 12/31/2022 at 1:52 AM, weathafella said:

Hope you get well quickly mreaves!

 

On 12/31/2022 at 10:58 AM, CoastalWx said:

Yes, hope you feel better mreaves!

Thanks for the well wishes everyone. I’m feeling much better now. Seems like December was a blur, bracketed by a kidney stone at the begin inning and the resultant infection at the end. Just a mess. Sort of like how this winter is playing out. 

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A few days back I saw that the depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake hit the two-foot mark, so I’ve added this year’s data to my plot of dates for snowpack hitting 24” each season.  I find this data useful because reaching that depth at the stake is decent estimate for when the initial off piste/tree/backcountry skiing begins in the Northern Greens on appropriately maintained slopes.  It’s not a perfect metric because the composition of the snowpack plays into it as well; a snowpack that is 24” of fluff isn’t quite going to cut it, whereas a super dense pack will allow you to get by with less.  I wouldn’t say this season’s mid-December snowpack was super dense, but it certainly beat out the need to reach the 24” mark at the stake.  Winter Storm Diaz was the clear tipping point, with even some fairly steep off piste terrain getting into play as of December 17th, and the local snowpack had only hit about 20” at that point  The mean date for hitting 24” at the stake is December 14th based on the current data set, so having the off piste skiing get going on the 17th isn’t actually too far off from that, even if the actual 24” depth wasn’t hit until the 27th.

While reaching that 24” snowpack depth on the 27th of December is certainly later than average, it’s a bit more notable this season because it’s the earliest it’s been in four seasons.  I’ve highlighted this in the plot by coloring the data points for the past three seasons in red, while the data point for this season is labeled and in green.  We’ve definitely had a run of slow Decembers in the past few seasons with respect to getting the local mountain snowpack going, and the plot clearly shows this.  So if anecdotally it’s felt like getting off the manmade snow has taken forever the past few seasons, that’s actually been the case.  We weren’t just on the later side of average in recent years - the dates for the past two seasons were well past 1 S.D. beyond the mean, and even 2019-2020, the best of the bunch, was right at 1 S.D beyond the mean.

Here are the dates for reaching 24” at the stake for the past four seasons, and what the stats say about their relative occurrence:

2019-2020: January 2nd (bottom 16% of seasons)

2020-2021: January 17th (bottom 4% of seasons)

2021-2022: January 7th (bottom 11% of seasons)

2022-2023: December 27th (bottom 25% of seasons)

In any event, it was nice to get a break from that infamous trend this season, even if things were still later than average.  Getting that date back into December and into the holiday week was a substantial change (and the off piste skiing actually took off ahead of the holiday week due to its composition as I noted earlier, so that made the change in date even more evident).  This was definitely one of the best holiday ski weeks in a while, with some really good skiing through just about all of the period.  That’s pretty impressive considering that there wasn’t much snow at all during the first half of December.

The snow data here at our site tell a similar story to what the mountains experienced.  December snowfall at our side was 30.6 inches, which is definitely below average, but a bit of a highlight because it was the most snow we’ve seen in December in five seasons.  That again speaks to just how slow Decembers have been with respect to snowfall in recent years.  It’s pretty remarkable that we got to even that level of snowfall, because almost all of it happened in the second half of the month; the first half of December brought only 3.3 inches of that total.

27DEC22A.jpg.4dc6102d63b3fe37b0e91a8ab9d0858e.jpg

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1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

A few days back I saw that the depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake hit the two-foot mark, so I’ve added this year’s data to my plot of dates for snowpack hitting 24” each season.  I find this data useful because reaching that depth at the stake is decent estimate for when the initial off piste/tree/backcountry skiing begins in the Northern Greens on appropriately maintained slopes.  It’s not a perfect metric because the composition of the snowpack plays into it as well; a snowpack that is 24” of fluff isn’t quite going to cut it, whereas a super dense pack will allow you to get by with less.  I wouldn’t say this season’s mid-December snowpack was super dense, but it certainly beat out the need to reach the 24” mark at the stake.  Winter Storm Diaz was the clear tipping point, with even some fairly steep off piste terrain getting into play as of December 17th, and the local snowpack had only hit about 20” at that point  The mean date for hitting 24” at the stake is December 14th based on the current data set, so having the off piste skiing get going on the 17th isn’t actually too far off from that, even if the actual 24” depth wasn’t hit until the 27th.

While reaching that 24” snowpack depth on the 27th of December is certainly later than average, it’s a bit more notable this season because it’s the earliest it’s been in four seasons.  I’ve highlighted this in the plot by coloring the data points for the past three seasons in red, while the data point for this season is labeled and in green.  We’ve definitely had a run of slow Decembers in the past few seasons with respect to getting the local mountain snowpack going, and the plot clearly shows this.  So if anecdotally it’s felt like getting off the manmade snow has taken forever the past few seasons, that’s actually been the case.  We weren’t just on the later side of average in recent years - the dates for the past two seasons were well past 1 S.D. beyond the mean, and even 2019-2020, the best of the bunch, was right at 1 S.D beyond the mean.

Here are the dates for reaching 24” at the stake for the past four seasons, and what the stats say about their relative occurrence:

2019-2020: January 2nd (bottom 16% of seasons)

2020-2021: January 17th (bottom 4% of seasons)

2021-2022: January 7th (bottom 11% of seasons)

2022-2023: December 27th (bottom 25% of seasons)

In any event, it was nice to get a break from that infamous trend this season, even if things were still later than average.  Getting that date back into December and into the holiday week was a substantial change (and the off piste skiing actually took off ahead of the holiday week due to its composition as I noted earlier, so that made the change in date even more evident).  This was definitely one of the best holiday ski weeks in a while, with some really good skiing through just about all of the period.  That’s pretty impressive considering that there wasn’t much snow at all during the first half of December.

The snow data here at our site tell a similar story to what the mountains experienced.  December snowfall at our side was 30.6 inches, which is definitely below average, but a bit of a highlight because it was the most snow we’ve seen in December in five seasons.  That again speaks to just how slow Decembers have been with respect to snowfall in recent years.  It’s pretty remarkable that we got to even that level of snowfall, because almost all of it happened in the second half of the month; the first half of December brought only 3.3 inches of that total.

27DEC22A.jpg.4dc6102d63b3fe37b0e91a8ab9d0858e.jpg

It’s down to 13

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10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s down to 13

Lol yeah but the data points are for the first time it does it.  You think that one in October stayed above 24”?  Many of these years went back below afterwards.  It’s linear on average but not in reality.

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Lol yeah but the data points are for the first time it does it.  You think that one in October stayed above 24”?  Many of these years went back below afterwards.  It’s linear on average but not in reality.

That guy seems to live for posting negative comments in any New England thread he can find. It gets pretty tiresome. 

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That guy seems to live for posting negative comments in any New England thread he can find. It gets pretty tiresome. 

He’s obnoxious because it appears he actually has some weather knowledge, but only lives for the trolling high of the response…and isn’t humorous or enjoyable like some others.


.
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5 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:


He’s obnoxious because it appears he actually has some weather knowledge, but only lives for the trolling high of the response…and isn’t humorous or enjoyable like some others.


.

Pf brought them here unintentionally by challenging them with facts. Every post is apparently now trolling the whole winter because of something one poster said.  Thankfully we can all stand it because we dont live or die by every inch of snow like our se new england friends.  We get snow even when no one else does. Sure it's been bad for us too, but we will get ours. Trolls like qq, only want to get qq from us which if you know what qq means is hilarious.  Sorry, qq, nobody is qq'ing. 99% of the people in this thread do love snow, but wont be as butthurt as your obsession is, so keep trying.

 

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I mean the reality is the snow stake at Stowe has 12” and has had only 3 lower marks at this date in history .
 

Things can turn around fast but I don’t think that needs to be included in every post like folks need some pep talk . 

It’s been a bad season for snow pack outside a few days after that big system . Mentioning This shouldn’t be depressing or Cause folks to lose their cool . It’s simply reality and it’s ok . 

Looks like Europe has had an even worse season ...Which Is certainly notable 

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NAM products make things interesting for NVT and the mountains of Western Maine with the Thurs-Friday system and the flow looks good for some fake snow right into the weekend. Could be sneaky good in NVT especially Saturday and Sunday. 

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NAM trending in the wrong direction it seems, HRRR more bullish with the surface temps. Gonna depend on how quickly that cold air at the surface bleeds south. I was planning on smuggs this weekend but if this keeps trending I might audible to loaf.

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Man the January thread is brutal right now, hate to see it. I know I'm about the only one who cares but HRRR and 3k still selling a nice little event for western into north-central Maine overnight. HRRR still the most bullish on surface temps, no surprise there. It's too bad 850s are so torched or this could've been a nice overrunning event down into the foothills. Loaf actually looks to be hanging on ok, a lot better than northern VT it seems atm and the weekend there will be salvaged by this system it seems. 

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Man the January thread is brutal right now, hate to see it. I know I'm about the only one who cares but HRRR and 3k still selling a nice little event for western into north-central Maine overnight. HRRR still the most bullish on surface temps, no surprise there. It's too bad 850s are so torched or this could've been a nice overrunning event down into the foothills. Loaf actually looks to be hanging on ok, a lot better than northern VT it seems atm and the weekend there will be salvaged by this system it seems. 

Trending the wrong way up here, but maybe we do ok on the upslope.


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2 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Man the January thread is brutal right now, hate to see it. I know I'm about the only one who cares but HRRR and 3k still selling a nice little event for western into north-central Maine overnight. HRRR still the most bullish on surface temps, no surprise there. It's too bad 850s are so torched or this could've been a nice overrunning event down into the foothills. Loaf actually looks to be hanging on ok, a lot better than northern VT it seems atm and the weekend there will be salvaged by this system it seems. 

Still 7" at the stake, and GYX has us getting a surface-brightening 1-3" overnight into tomorrow.

Stats for 2022:

Avg temp:  43.03   +1.3  Both max and min were +1.3

Precip:  48.38", a mere 0.36" BN.  Thru August we were 5" BN with 9 of the past 11 months BN, then 4 straight AN months made up nearly all the deficit.

Snow:  Calendar '22 had 78.8" while 21-22 had only 67.1"

Though 2022 was pretty meh on average, it had its moments:
Jan 22: -29°, tied for 7th coldest (6th at the time) records back thru May 17, 1998.
Jan 27: -30°, tied for 5th coldest.
May 14:  90°, earliest to reach that mark, and hottest for the year.
Oct 14:  3.30", 7th greatest one-day precip.
Dec. 16-18:  22.0", 3rd greatest snowstorm.  (24.5" 2/22-23/09; 24.0" 12/6-7/03)
Dec. 23:  3.25" precip, including 2.84" RA after SN/IP start, tied for 8th greatest and unseating 12/25/20 for December's greatest one-day precip.

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16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Still 7" at the stake, and GYX has us getting a surface-brightening 1-3" overnight into tomorrow.

Stats for 2022:

Avg temp:  43.03   +1.3  Both max and min were +1.3

Precip:  48.38", a mere 0.36" BN.  Thru August we were 5" BN with 9 of the past 11 months BN, then 4 straight AN months made up nearly all the deficit.

Snow:  Calendar '22 had 78.8" while 21-22 had only 67.1"

Though 2022 was pretty meh on average, it had its moments:
Jan 22: -29°, tied for 7th coldest (6th at the time) records back thru May 17, 1998.
Jan 27: -30°, tied for 5th coldest.
May 14:  90°, earliest to reach that mark, and hottest for the year.
Oct 14:  3.30", 7th greatest one-day precip.
Dec. 16-18:  22.0", 3rd greatest snowstorm.  (24.5" 2/22-23/09; 24.0" 12/6-7/03)
Dec. 23:  3.25" precip, including 2.84" RA after SN/IP start, tied for 8th greatest and unseating 12/25/20 for December's greatest one-day precip.

Awesome recap, thanks for sharing your data. I don't remember the late Jan. freeze so that was interesting to see. Keith Carson posted this yesterday FWIW. Looking forward to getting out of the crap regime we've been stuck in the last 3 years. 

 

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2 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Awesome recap, thanks for sharing your data. I don't remember the late Jan. freeze so that was interesting to see. Keith Carson posted this yesterday FWIW. Looking forward to getting out of the crap regime we've been stuck in the last 3 years. 

 

Agreed on the 3 crummy winters.  2019-20 was heading for a ratter but was rescued by 22" after the equinox (including 3.2" in May) to finish at 95% of average.  The next winter finished ahead of only 2015-16 and last winter was 20th of 24, a bit behind losers like 2001-02 and 2011-12.

Warmest 6 years (and coolest 2):
44.25   2010
44.00   2021
43.91   1999
43.44   2006
43.19   2012
43.03   2022

39.45   2019
39.99   2007

Average is currently 41.72.

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On 1/3/2023 at 10:31 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like Europe has had an even worse season ...Which Is certainly notable 

I'm just catching up on this thread.  Have you seen what was going on in Europe the past few days?  Unbelievable warmth.  Not just a warm spell but epic for them.  The heat this summer and now this.  Of course weather and climate are different and I have not looked at how warm 2022 is going to come in but just seems like global warming is happening faster than ever..

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