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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Western Florida has been very lucky with storm surge. Hurricane Charley 2004 was a 150 mph Cat 4 and the small size limited the storm surge. Hurricane Irma would've had a tremendous surge but hitting Cuba, then the Keys as well as the odd angle it approached the coastline gave many areas a reverse surge.

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9 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Anyone know what the longest thread is for an invest prior to becoming a TD?  Gotta think this is getting there.

Not me, but I will say this may be the thread that everyone has been waiting for since last year. Maybe it is the thread with the longest wait time between storms that gets our attention even before a name. ;)

 

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12 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

We're gonna be east of FL by the 6z runs if this continues 

 

632d0648eb2fa.png

That looks ugly, might still be a tropical storm when it hits Cuba if that verifies.  It has 36 hrs of very favorable conditions but if the initial low is weak and disorganized it won't be able to take advantage.

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

That looks ugly, might still be a tropical storm when it hits Cuba if that verifies.  It has 36 hrs of very favorable conditions but if the initial low is weak and disorganized it won't be able to take advantage.

 

Its fairly rare in these circumstances when the system has not formed yet that any global models outperform the hurricane models or HWRF significantly on track at 4 or 5 days....I'd continue to lean towards something hitting FL north of RSW as of now

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wouldn't bet on it missing the US, but could envision some meltdowns if that occurs.

 

Ultimately if it missed the US it would probably never have been much of anything regardless...at least as far as most on this forum rate storms...it would probably be a Cat 2 at best when it hit Cuba because if its hooking that quick it would not have been over water in the Caribbean long enough to become a 3 4 or 5 

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its fairly rare in these circumstances when the system has not formed yet that any global models outperform the hurricane models or HWRF significantly on track at 4 or 5 days....I'd continue to lean towards something hitting FL north of RSW as of now

Yeah just keeping fingers crossed the 18Z Euro and Icon are wrong about the intensity.    They had some issues with Harvey in 2017 and Delta in 2020.  Both those storms took off pretty fast.

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7 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

Anyone within 100 miles of Tampa shouldn’t be shocked this is gonna maybe hit the OBx r miss Fl completely. Nothing ever comes near Tampa…ever 

My mom and dad moved there when my dad retired after 46 years with Sears, the last bunch being a regional manager. He did extensive interviews and research as to the safest place in Florida from hurricanes. Everyone said the Tampa area so he bought property and had a home built on the edge of Spring Hill. He chose Florida as being free from income taxes and plenty of good places to golf. Mom wasn't as happy moving from Pennsylvania and children and grandchildren. 

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