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Rtd208
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Strongest warm pool on record for this time of year east of New England. That spot is turning into a hurricane magnet recently with Danielle an the forecast for Earl. Pretty impressive record SST warmth surrounding the small area of La Niña cooler SSTs.

 


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The next 8 days are averaging  73degs.(67/80) or +2.

Reached just 82 here yesterday.

Today:  79-85, wind s. to e.(breezy), variable clouds, rain late-Flood Watch starts.

************  NBM, CMC, EURO, SREF are 1.0"-1.5".         GFS  and ICON are 4.0"! **********

EARL seems  safely UP UP & AWAY:

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74*(88%RH) here at 7am.      77* at 9am.       80* at 11am.     still  80*  at Noon.     Reached  81*(7&%RH) at 2pm-feels  like 86*.      75* at 8pm.

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Today may be the last shot in a while at upper 80s to around 90 for the warm spots in NJ. Unusually  strong -NAO for early September will cool things down going forward. So expect more comfortable highs in the 70s this week before 80s return by next weekend. 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and cooler.  Rain and thunderstorms are likely, especially later today and tomorrow. A general 1.00”-2.00” of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. Southern New England will see a general 1.5”-3.00” rainfall with some higher amounts. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Central New Jersey southward will see warmer temperatures. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 81°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 87°

Somewhat cooler than normal conditions are likely through Thursday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 79.9°; 15-Year: 80.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.4°

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

It seems to me the models are trying to resolve where the heaviest rain/traning sets up but we really won't know that until it's occuring. 

If you look at this run and the position of the stationary front it appears that the Euro is focusing on both the position of the front itself along with terrain influences in this region.

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1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

If you look at this run and the position of the stationary front it appears that the Euro is focusing on both the position of the front itself along with terrain influences in this region.

We are just going to have to wait and see how things set up today into tonight. Regardless I think everyone sees at least 1-1.5" of rainfall. Where the highest amounts occur is the big question. 

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74 / 69 with some sun poking through.  Majority of the steady rain to fall late today and Tue (9/6) - into Wed (9/7) looking like a solid 2+ for most spots. 

Rockies ridge locked in ad the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west this coming weekend.  Drier but still cool Thu (9/8) more humid onshore / southerly flow by this Friday (9/9) and into the weekend. 

Front is slow to clear by early next week and cutos off west of the region, likely comes through at some point next Tue (9/13) / Wed (9/14) perhaps more heavy rainfall .). 

 

Longer range Rockies ridge pushes east into the plains and GL by mid month and overall warm / with building heights for the second half of the month.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Today may be the last shot in a while at upper 80s to around 90 for the warm spots in NJ. Unusually  strong -NAO for early September will cool things down going forward. So expect more comfortable highs in the 70s this week before 80s return by next weekend. 

 

 


 

 

 

It will be interesting to see and track, but the Rockies Ridge may be forced east by the middle of next week and setup more ridging towards the end of next week / next weekend (mid month) timeframe 9/16.

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Labor Days of the past

EWR

High / Low (rain)
 

9/6 2010: 80 / 56
9/5 2011:  85 / 72 (T)
9/3 2012:  78 / 72 (0.08)
9/2 2013:  83 / 72 (0.14)
9/1 2014: 92 / 74
9/7 2015: 95 / 65
9/5 2016:  86 / 58
9/4 2017 : 82 / 58
9/3 2018 : 95 / 76
9/2 2019 : 77 / 70 (1.19)
9/7 2020 : 79 / 65
9/6 2021 : 86  /  70

 

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

We are just going to have to wait and see how things set up today into tonight. Regardless I think everyone sees at least 1-1.5" of rainfall. Where the highest amounts occur is the big question. 

I agree with Tatamay on this one . I’m thinking oragraphic lifting will have an influence for the folks in the hills. There will be some lollies there for a few.

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Added CoCoRaHs sample for the past day. 

I'll have to withdraw CT as possible miss on heavy rainfall (only 1/2"). E LI still in the low chance mix for 1/2 or less???   Usually there are bands of exceedingly heavy and surprisingly light. 

As discussed by others earlier,  surface convergence will be a big driver on where exactly widespread 1-4" occurs. I still like our NYC subforum for this and now it looks like the rains will continue into Wednesday due to the position of the surface low and inflow.

Interesting that modeling through 06z/5 is focusing heaviest R+ north of I80 while largest PW of near 2" is modeled near I78 south.  I could be wrong but it may end up that ultimately biggest rains I80 south Tuesday into Wednesday where a bit greater instability and higher PW as well as potential for surface convergence via front and better e-se gradient inflow in that area. 

7" max seems to me to be a confident outlook for a tiny portion of our subforum. Where?  I saw some modeling expressing potential for isolated 10" in CT. The idea... someone should receive excessive near 7" rainfall. 

Through 12z/5 here in this part of Wantage only 0.21, but digital radar and wxunderground obs as well as CoCoRaHs support narrow bands of 1-3" already occurred through 12z/5. 

Sunday-Monday looks pretty big to me as well as midwest CF arrives...possibly stalling for a while with PW of 2+" nosed into the region along the east coast.  That's low priority compared to what is at hand. 1004A/5

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro, GEM, and HRRR now keep the axis of the heaviest rains north of l-78. So this could be another case of the SE Ridge/WAR flexing closer to storm time. It will be interesting to see how this turns out. 

the 12z nam is coming north with the second wave of rain on tuesday which helps us

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4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the 12z nam is coming north with the second wave of rain on tuesday which helps us

The second batch of of heavy rain may be our best shot as per the 12z HRRR. But there may be a bit of a dry slot for spots between the two areas. Hard to know until nowcast time. Maybe the models are overdoing the dry slot and we get more of a filled in look joining the band to the north and south.


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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The second batch of of heavy rain may be our best shot as per the 12z HRRR. But there may be a bit of a dry slot for spots between the two areas. Hard to know until nowcast time. Maybe the models are overdoing the dry slot and we get more of a filled in look joining the band to the north and south.


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It's our only shot imo

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