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2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

No rainfall yet here today.  Was not far away just to my north.  Hoping for at least .25" - .50" overnight to prime the soil so to speak.  New batch of showers blossoming on radar over eastern PA and moving slowly ENE.  Nothing imminent for my area but hopefully something can meander through overnight.

The activity over eastern PA relates to an outflow boundary in the area.  I have received 0.15” from it so far.  Right now the area to be for heavy rain in looks to be in the southern area of SI and adjacent central NJ.

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Under partly to mostly sunny skies, parts of the region saw temperatures surge into the lower 90s. High temperatures included:

Baltimore: 91°
New York City: 90°
Newark: 92°
Philadelphia: 91°
Washington, DC: 91°

A somewhat cooler than normal and wet period now lies ahead. That period will likely extend through Thursday.

A significant rainfall is likely from tomorrow into Wednesday. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall appears likely with locally higher amounts.

The ongoing intense heatwave will continue into Wednesday (and Thursday at some locations) in the West. Today's preliminary high temperatures included:

Burbank, CA: 110° (tied record from 1984) ***Potential new all-time low of 83°***
Camarillo, CA: 106° (old record: 93°, 1961) ***tied September record***
Casper: 100° (old record: 96°, 1998) ***new September record***
Cheyenne: 94° (old record: 93°, 1960)
Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 122°, 2020) ***Record 4th 120° or above temperature in September***
Great Falls: 94° (tied record set in 1998 and tied in 2001 and 2003)
Lander, WY: 99° (old record: 94°, 1995 and 2019) ***new September record***
Long Beach, CA: 109° (old record: 107°, 1988)
Pocatello, ID: 97° (old record: 96°, 1998)
Reno: 104° (old record: 102°, 2020) ***new September record***
Salt Lake City: 102° (old record: 98°, 1950, 2017 and 2019)
Sheridan, WY: 102°

Casper's previous latest 100° temperature was August 12, 2018.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +16.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.186 today.

On September 2 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.586 (RMM). The September 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.709 (RMM).

 

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Attaching some wx underground #'s, verifying digital output since about Noon/4.  

All seems on target for widespread 1/2-4" rains today-Tue night (iso 7) and again next Sun-Mon (except not indicating iso max amount at this time). Am not buying any model delays for late next weekend and or shunting to our west.  Front should crawl eastward through here late next weekend with high PW in excess of 2". 

 

While I've only had 0.05 in this part of Wantage, you can see the variability up to 2+" in the available data at this resolution for PA/NJ, NYS-CT. Have also seen /decent amounts near Perth Amboy, under 3/4". Credit to Weather Underground. 

I'll add some CoCoRAHS 24 hour totals around 10-11A/Monday. 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-09-04 at 8.06.46 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-04 at 8.11.36 PM.png

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WAR is really flexing some muscle here as it builds in front of Earl all across the se, middle Atlantic, and up to about us here in the NYC Metro. Precipitation likely to under perform through tomorrow night and temperatures likely to over perform. I'm not even so sure how well coastal areas will do on Tuesday at this point. Central Park got their 25th 90+ of the season probably looking at 1-4 more. 

WX/PT

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2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

WAR is really flexing some muscle here as it builds in front of Earl all across the se, middle Atlantic, and up to about us here in the NYC Metro. Precipitation likely to under perform through tomorrow night and temperatures likely to over perform. I'm not even so sure how well coastal areas will do on Tuesday at this point. Central Park got their 25th 90+ of the season probably looking at 1-4 more. 

WX/PT

The coast crisps. Expect little to nothing here 

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44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

On board early here…heavy rain 

I picked up a little over a half inch with a heavy downpour earlier this evening. Got lucky since most areas didn't get much. It was a nice watering for the garden.  Glad I got that early since there's no guarantee that monday night into tuesday will deliver. NAM just cut way back on the amounts as Stormlover74 just showed. It's just 1 model run and I'm not saying 0z NAM will be right about the event being disappointing, but it certainly wouldn't be shocking if that happens since almost every potential heavy rain event has fallen apart during this horrible drought.

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Upton’s AFD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1045 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... For Mon...a bit of a mid lvl dry punch is progged to move in from the south. In addition, dynamics are limited, and instability is likely to be fairly low with mainly bkn-ovc skies. Even if the 5000ft cu deck isn`t solid, the subtropical jet is expected to produce a thick cirrus canopy. Water vapor shows the subtropical Pacific tap into the system. As a result, the modeling has backed off on pcpn amounts and this seems reasonable attm. Fcst indicates 20-50 or so pops thru the day, with the best chances across the north on the periphery of the h7 dry nose. Divergence around the h2 jet lvl will allow for pcpn to focus invof a slow moving boundary Mon ngt and Tue. This will be the area to watch for hvy rainfall totals. The models have been consistent with the signal, but not with the exact timing and placement. All areas should see substantial rain with the favorable jet dynamics, but the flooding rains are expected to be more narrowly focused. With the timing still in the Mon ngt-Tue period, along with the continued model uncertainty (and nwd trend in the NAM), will continue highlighting the risk with the HWO and not issue a watch attm. 

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1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

WAR is really flexing some muscle here as it builds in front of Earl all across the se, middle Atlantic, and up to about us here in the NYC Metro. Precipitation likely to under perform through tomorrow night and temperatures likely to over perform. I'm not even so sure how well coastal areas will do on Tuesday at this point. Central Park got their 25th 90+ of the season probably looking at 1-4 more. 

WX/PT

Most useless WAR ever. Can't even send Earl west. 

I'm also pretty convinced we go from summer to winter again sometime in early November. Like 80s to 30/40s type of deal. 

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