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Looks below normal next 10 days, but not necessarily bone dry.  I can see nw flow thunderstorms sinking into our area this Monday-Tuesday. In part depends if 500MB ridge is MO-TN, or over the northeast as per the GEPS.  Dont know for sure, but I am not taking the models at face value next week and thereafter.

 

Attached: CoCoRaHs past two days, and past 10 days.  Also HPRCC past two weeks percent departure from normal. Click for more detail. 

 

All storms this afternoon only benefitted Catskills portion of the NYC watershed (still a little less than 10% below normal overall) eastward to northern two thirds CT

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Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 6.59.38 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 7.00.14 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 7.36.47 PM.png

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Clouds gave way to afternoon sunshine. In response, the mercury rose into the lower and middle 80s. Tomorrow will be another warm day, but much cooler air will begin to filter into the region afterward. The coolest air mass so far this season will cover the region on Friday. However, the early autumnal chill will be short-lived. Noticeably warmer air will likely return early next week. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience 90° or above temperatures at the height of the warmth.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +19.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.603 today.

On September 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.314 (RMM). The September 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.243 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.1° (1.9° above normal).

 

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The models are really facing off as to whether or not the European/GEPS western Atlantic ridge together with the part of the western ridge will build in over the northeast next week. GFS, GGEM, GEFS, EPS now in the "no" camp and then you have the Euro and GEPS in the "yes" camp. The "no" camp seems to put us back into June 2022 pattern with enough blocking that WAR stays east and the western ridge stays west and we get some warmth of short duration and a number of cold front passages. I am leaning "yes" but confidence is not high. It just takes a lot this late in the season to get us into the duration of heat that the European model has been suggesting the passed 2 runs.

WX/PT

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The next 8 days are averaging  74degs.(66/83) or +5.

Month to date is  73.8[+1.6].         Should be 73.9[+2.9] by the 22nd.

Reached 86 here yesterday.

Yes, but the ENS. just has general BN pressure along the whole EC at that time.       In the running, I guess:

1664064000-t3BPiDwVlLA.png

Today:  78-84, wind nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 64 tomorrow AM.

64*(74%RH) here at 7am.       66* at 9am.     70* at 11am.        79* at 3pm.      80* at 3:30pm.      Reached 81* at 5pm.        77* at 8pm.

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33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea it looks like the models are backing off for the real warmth over the next week here in the northeast. Looks mostly 70s and 80s for the next week or so, for daytime highs.

Makes sense...that was an extreme solution-days of 90's....

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65 / 56 here and a gorgeous stretch of weather the next 2 days.  Dry, bright sunshine, window open weather through Fri (9/16). Warmup 9/16 as rigge builds back into the east.  Latest runs focus the ridge more south and into the Mississippi Valley so the blast of furnace like heat which was projected north of the area now is aimed into the area.  So with that heat potential starting Sun (9/18) through Fri (9/22) especially in the warmer spots..  Peak heat has 850s in the ?18c range by Tue (9/20) and Wed (9/21) / Thu . 

 

Beyond that front is being seen by later next week Fri (9/23) into next weekend. Overall warm end of the month and last 10 days.  Ridge returns by start of next month n the way beyond - watching tropical antics as well.

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35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Makes sense...that was an extreme solution-days of 90's....

Think we still see 90s especially in the warmer spots Tue- Thu period, stray one on Mon off chance.  Ridge balloons in the TX / OK area and surge of heat building into the Plains pushes into the area by Tue / Wed.   Beyond there by next Fri 9/23 strong front and cooler next weekend as its being forecast now.  

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51 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Think we still see 90s especially in the warmer spots Tue- Thu period, stray one on Mon off chance.  Ridge balloons in the TX / OK area and surge of heat building into the Plains pushes into the area by Tue / Wed.   Beyond there by next Fri 9/23 strong front and cooler next weekend as its being forecast now.  

I doubt it at this point. I think the latest maps are more showing low-mid 80s with perhaps one day of mid 80s to near 90 (looks like the 21st). Then the pattern seems to revert to the June pattern of keeping the warmth and the heat to our west and we actually do get into more of a autumn-like pattern with a series of cold fronts. I'm not saying we will have seen the last days of the warmth/heat for the season, but we're close to it and maybe the se ridge or a piece of the western ridge pops in for a day sometime in October. 

WX/PT

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS really firing up the tropical threats

Quite a fun run after the autumn-like treats of 00Z. The way to get a hurricane up the coast, put an upper low over the upper mid west, build WAR on top of the hurricane blocking it so it can't' escape, and have enough ridging under it to allow it to gain latitude. And here you go. Now prior to the madness, GFS does build WAR back in from the south and east giving us a day or two of 90+ heat. GGEM is a little diffferent but not much. We wait for King Euro to speak.

WX/PT

gfs_z500_mslp_us_41.png

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Things to look for this afternoon. Over the summer, the EPS was the leading model in forecasting the heat. It beat the operational Euro by a lot. If we're going to get that ridge to build in, the chances are we'll have to see it forecast on the EPS and the European model. The Euro may be a run cycle or two later in showing it but as of now keep in mind, the EPS does not really show a good WAR building in. That will probably have to change and it's something to look for. The GEPS does show the ridge building in but this season, the GEPS has had a tendency to lock in solutions which adjusted abruptly at closer range. So IMO the EPS is most important to watch for at this time.

WX/PT

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