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August Discussion/Obs


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36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much rain have you had YTD and since May 1?

 

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

4.4 in the woodyard since May 1st what do you got?

6.62" here since then

May - 1.50"

June - 3.86"

July - 1.12"

Aug - 0.14"

 

50% of July's rain came on 1 day (July 14th)

60% of June's rain came in a 6 day span. (June 6-13)

50% of May's rain came over 3 days. (May 2-4)

 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

:lmao:

We know you don’t look at model data and rather mock data you don’t agree with, but numerous models have decent anomalies at 850mb this weekend.  Doesn’t mean jacket weather, just a break.

Here’s Euro:

9981FEF5-8618-4930-9570-21B329EE5DA3.thumb.png.ad9aec7e258606f12e11e4aee5966e39.png

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The ensembles are sort of done with the torch after Thursday.  Just nice August weather after that.

We can argue if they are right or wrong but they all say the same thing Day 5-9.

EPS:

81F6F1E6-A2F4-4F30-99A0-91694D5DA63D.thumb.png.d94ea5a0185f52d48d5784ba06abfbd6.png
 

The GEFS…

BA269D39-265D-4791-B872-259F888CC317.thumb.png.5a2cc54435e1270879342fb9fa4a6bc9.png

And why not the Canadian ensembles too?

DA7FE0BF-6F9E-4FA7-A00C-8DAE55C7550A.thumb.png.a6a2623cb0f0da4ad3d57aef1410a20a.png

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We know you don’t look at model data and rather mock data you don’t agree with, but numerous models have decent anomalies at 850mb this weekend.  Doesn’t mean jacket weather, just a break.

Here’s Euro:

9981FEF5-8618-4930-9570-21B329EE5DA3.thumb.png.ad9aec7e258606f12e11e4aee5966e39.png

Blues don’t mean chilly which he seemed to insinuate. Weekend in SNE looks like 80-85 and 60 ish at night before we redew early week and beyond. How is that campfire and long sleeved wx?

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The ensembles are sort of done with the torch after Thursday.  Just nice August weather after that.

We can argue if they are right or wrong but they all say the same thing Day 5-9.

EPS:

81F6F1E6-A2F4-4F30-99A0-91694D5DA63D.thumb.png.d94ea5a0185f52d48d5784ba06abfbd6.png
 

The GEFS…

BA269D39-265D-4791-B872-259F888CC317.thumb.png.5a2cc54435e1270879342fb9fa4a6bc9.png

And why not the Canadian ensembles too?

DA7FE0BF-6F9E-4FA7-A00C-8DAE55C7550A.thumb.png.a6a2623cb0f0da4ad3d57aef1410a20a.png

You do realize if that happened that shows a cutoff to our SW which would pump up high dews but keep days under 90 with south flow. That is not a cold nW flow pattern.  You can’t look at blue colors and think it’s cool dry 

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17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

6.62" here since then

May - 1.50"

June - 3.86"

July - 1.12"

Aug - 0.14"

 

50% of July's rain came on 1 day (July 14th)

60% of June's rain came in a 6 day span. (June 6-13)

50% of May's rain came over 3 days. (May 2-4)

 

2.32” Mayorch 

3.39” JuneAce 

2.81 Julorch 

.34 Augdewst 

4 summer months all below normal ( Aug TBD) and Morch and Napril were both BN precip 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You do realize if that happened that shows a cutoff to our SW which would pump up high dews but keep days under 90 with south flow. That is not a cold nW flow pattern. 

Model data averages 2-M temps around normal, GEFS a bit cooler.

No one is saying it’s cold, but after this stretch, this is a noticeable change that the public will notice.  Hopefully dews stay up for you my man.

I’m also not even sure it happens but on a science forum we have some data saying a change is going to happen.

These are 2-M temps days 5-9 averaged.

B84B956C-87B6-4DB7-BF6F-D45824C22B5E.thumb.png.26bf7dae7de6ba4a8a0916fac364f1a5.png

65874FEA-3D99-43BC-BC55-B1EE8401DC06.thumb.png.91b815f2be697d1d9f056eb1ca6c9c11.png

 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Model data averages 2-M temps around normal, GEFS a bit cooler.

No one is saying it’s cold, but after this stretch, this is a noticeable change that the public will notice.  Hopefully dews stay up for you my man.

I’m also not even sure it happens but on a science forum we have some data saying a change is going to happen.

These are 2-M temps days 5-9 averaged.

B84B956C-87B6-4DB7-BF6F-D45824C22B5E.thumb.png.26bf7dae7de6ba4a8a0916fac364f1a5.png

65874FEA-3D99-43BC-BC55-B1EE8401DC06.thumb.png.91b815f2be697d1d9f056eb1ca6c9c11.png

 

Im Not arguing it’s not a furnace with 90’s like we’ve had. BOS just averaged 90 degrees over the last 3 weeks for their first time in recorded history.  So anything less is going to be cooler. It looks to me based on ens it may…. ( may) turn into a warm , humid wetter pattern mid and late month . A cutoff to our SW in Augdewst means warmth and humidity and storm chances. That said,  I do not think for a second it is going to turn wet and rainy . Droughts tend to change so called “ modeled looks” 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2.32” Mayorch 

3.39” JuneAce 

2.81 Julorch 

.34 Augdewst 

4 summer months all below normal ( Aug TBD) and Morch and Napril were both BN precip 

You wet. I had half that in July.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Im Not arguing it’s not a furnace with 90’s like we’ve had. BOS just averaged 90 degrees over the last 3 weeks for their first time in recorded history.  So anything less is going to be cooler. It looks to me based on enslikr it may…. ( may) turn into a warm , humid wetter pattern mid and late month . A cutoff to our SW in Augdewst means warmth and humidity and storm chances. That said I do not hug for a second it is going to turn wet and rainy . Droughts tend to change so called “ modeled looks” 

No argument on any of that.  This weekend into early next week the trough axis is right over us… but then retrogrades westward as we go through next week which would support larger scale SE flow.  Eventually by like Aug 18-20 it’s in the Ohio Valley.  Good ‘cane look too, sucking up the coast.

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You’ve only had 4.40” since May 1st or June 1st?

Around 12” here since 5/1.  West side of Mansfield in Underhill looks to be leading the state of VT with 16.5”-17.5”.

Oops add 1.6  for may.

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Model data averages 2-M temps around normal, GEFS a bit cooler.

No one is saying it’s cold, but after this stretch, this is a noticeable change that the public will notice.  Hopefully dews stay up for you my man.

I’m also not even sure it happens but on a science forum we have some data saying a change is going to happen.

These are 2-M temps days 5-9 averaged.

B84B956C-87B6-4DB7-BF6F-D45824C22B5E.thumb.png.26bf7dae7de6ba4a8a0916fac364f1a5.png

65874FEA-3D99-43BC-BC55-B1EE8401DC06.thumb.png.91b815f2be697d1d9f056eb1ca6c9c11.png

 

Back broken. The heat and dew folks got their month. Back to men in suits...

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Nice, I think I described it the same earlier.  Swirling gusty winds, wasn’t like true straight line winds.

Not one rumble of thunder either. Hit a peak rate of 8.35”/hr. 
 

And as I type this a rumble rolls in the distance to the E. 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You wet. I had half that in July.

Yeah right … wet . I’ve had a soaker. While not mowing in weeks ( first time I’ve skipped a week since 2005 when I moved here) and shrubs dying while you mow and plant . You’ve had more rain in last 30 days than here. I looked at stations in S Wey . I couldn’t look at yours because you don’t have it online . But I know what your area has had last 4 months and it’s close to here averaged out . A little less 

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

No argument on any of that.  This weekend into early next week the trough axis is right over us… but then retrogrades westward as we go through next week which would support larger scale SE flow.  Eventually by like Aug 18-20 it’s in the Ohio Valley.  Good ‘cane look too, sucking up the coast.

That we both can agree on. That’s a cane look and I have been very adamant and bullish.. I think this year we get a direct hit into SNE. Waters are furnaced . Runaways WAR backs right up to and waaayyy west of us which opens the door. Add in a Midwest trough and North Atlantic blocking and 38 special is playing on all our airways 

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Blues don’t mean chilly which he seemed to insinuate. Weekend in SNE looks like 80-85 and 60 ish at night before we redew early week and beyond. How is that campfire and long sleeved wx?

Yep.  Posting daily pics of cumulus from the tables at day with kumbaya at night after heady topper, but claims to love hoodies in July.  Strange. 

 

Was at in sugarbush this weekend and everyone loved the warm evenings.

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3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yep.  Posting daily pics of cumulus from the tables at day with kumbaya at night after heady topper, but claims to love hoodies in July.  Strange. 

 

Was at in sugarbush this weekend and everyone loved the warm evenings.

Record numbers of people eating outside filling tables on patios in sun with no umbrellas  before inside fille up .drinking beers at outdoor tables at breweries all weekend .. only taking pics indoors when hitting bathroom with temps in 90’s and dews in 70’s. Everyone wanted to be outside . 

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