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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

83/70  Severe thunderstorm Warning and Tornado Warning just to my SW.

Constant distant thunder.  My webcams should capture it going through here pretty soon

www.bridgewaternhweather.com

SW NH the new tornado alley!

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17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

83/70  Severe thunderstorm Warning and Tornado Warning just to my SW.

Constant distant thunder.  My webcams should capture it going through here pretty soon

www.bridgewaternhweather.com

looking better and better thanks for the cam looks to be ground zero soon

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from NWS chat:

(2:02 PM) NWS Boston-Joe Dellicarpini: Starting to see storms form into a line from western MA into western CT. Airmass over this region is looking favorable for storms producing wind damage, although there is a relative min in downdraft CAPE. Also interesting to note that many of the composite indices show some potential for a tornado - however 0-500m SRH is fairly low (<95) and LCLs are above 1000m which are negative factors (and fairly important). Bottom line is we see increasing potential for wind damage with these storms as they head toward central MA and through northern CT in next few hours.

If llv helicity were a primary limiting factor that would argue for the channeling effect of the valley to take on more importance.  The LCLs could still be problematic especially to produce a strong tornado out of a discrete cell.  Once the shift into linear mode occurs I'd expect them to drop but then you're more looking for a QLCS type spinup unless you got a break in the line/embedded supercell.

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2 minutes ago, radarman said:

from NWS chat:

(2:02 PM) NWS Boston-Joe Dellicarpini: Starting to see storms form into a line from western MA into western CT. Airmass over this region is looking favorable for storms producing wind damage, although there is a relative min in downdraft CAPE. Also interesting to note that many of the composite indices show some potential for a tornado - however 0-500m SRH is fairly low (<95) and LCLs are above 1000m which are negative factors (and fairly important). Bottom line is we see increasing potential for wind damage with these storms as they head toward central MA and through northern CT in next few hours.

If llv helicity were a primary limiting factor that would argue for the channeling effect of the valley to take on more importance.  The LCLs could still be problematic especially to produce a strong tornado out of a discrete cell.  Once the shift into linear mode occurs I'd expect them to drop but then you're more looking for a QLCS type spinup unless you got a break in the line/embedded supercell.

in templeton now was going to head south but storms are looking better to the west.. hoping to get lucky here

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mcd1535.gif.9a852f135010ce634be39faecc1844b9.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1535
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

   Areas affected...New England

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...

   Valid 211807Z - 212000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will continue
   across the western and central parts of WW 479 this afternoon. The
   severe threat is expected to move eastward into parts of Maine over
   the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic imagery shows a cluster of strong to
   severe storms from northern New York extending eastward and
   southward across western New England. The strongest storms are
   located in west-central New England along an axis of moderate
   instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg.
   Amid the larger cluster, a well-developed supercell is ongoing in
   western New Hampshire. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in
   the 40 to 50 knot range according to the RAP, will continue to
   support supercell development. Supercells should be capable of wind
   damage and perhaps a brief tornado or two. However, the latest HRRR
   suggests that convective coverage will continue to rapidly increase.
   This will favor linear development along the instability axis. This
   line is expected to become increasing organized and move into
   western Maine within a few hours. The stronger parts of the line are
   expected to be associated with wind damage.

   ..Broyles.. 07/21/2022
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When the bulk of it passed through here (Washington Depot, central Litchfield County in western CT) there was a period of heavy rain, lots of lightning stikes shown on the lightningmaps.org map, but only one near enough to shake the house, brief power fluctuation, but not much in the way of wind.

Still raining, but the edge of the rain is approaching quickly (according to the radar).

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Shussh!  I'm like a kid in a candy shop, want severe but no damage.  Matt Noyes and Danielle are my neighbors, have a weekend place up here.  He is glued to my cam's right now

Might be some dimes in there under the core.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Gene, are you able to capture that video and speed it up? Sure looks like a rain foot surging out ahead of the core, downbursty.

Noticed that on the middle cam over the water. It's coming in pretty quickly even at regular time.

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