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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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11 minutes ago, radarman said:

6/6/10?   But no... other than the meh lapse rates, this is not that.  Or maybe there was a totally meh event on 6/1/10 also that I'm forgetting

I think that was a moderate risk that day, and almost nothing developed. Cape was like 1000 j/kg,  skinny though, ml lapse rates were horrid and cloud cover prevented much destabilization. 

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1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

I think that was a moderate risk that day, and almost nothing developed. Cape was like 1000 j/kg,  skinny though, ml lapse rates were horrid and cloud cover prevented much destabilization. 

There was one cell that ripped down I-90 and caused wind damage in Boston and Revere but that was it. 

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17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I think that was a moderate risk that day, and almost nothing developed. Cape was like 1000 j/kg,  skinny though, ml lapse rates were horrid and cloud cover prevented much destabilization. 

Except for the mod risk, that description is almost generic for us... Par for the course.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Satellite does show some breaks out at the CT/NY border. We’ll see if something can materialize.

Mesoscale Discussion 1511
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

   Areas affected...portions of northern VA...MD...DE...eastern
   PA...NJ...southern NY into western MA/CT

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...

   Valid 182032Z - 182200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging gusts will remain the main hazard across severe
   thunderstorm watch 473.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms continue along the I-95
   corridor this afternoon from near Washington D.C. to the NYC
   vicinity. Some of these storms have produced near-severe measured
   wind gusts as well as sporadic wind damage. This activity will
   continue to pose a threat for damaging gusts the next few hours.
   Occasional weak rotation has been noted at times as well, especially
   with storms further north across NJ/NY where low-level shear remains
   stronger compared to further south. 

   Some modest airmass recovery has been noted to the north of WW 473
   toward Albany, NY. Cloud breaks have allowed temperatures to warm
   into the mid/upper 70s and MLCAPE values around 500-750 J/kg are
   noted. Visible satellite imagery indicates some agitated CU beneath
   broken upper level clouds. As large-scale ascent continues to
   increase and a prefrontal trough shifts eastward through late
   afternoon/early evening, additional strong to severe convection may
   develop from eastern PA into NJ and southern NY. If additional
   convection develops and becomes organized further north, a watch
   expansion may be needed across parts of the Albany CWA.

   ..Leitman.. 07/18/2022
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