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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:
A cold front...actually more of a dewpoint front...will move
eastward into this hot unstable air mass Thursday afternoon and
evening. Wind fields aloft will strengthen as a weak mid-level
trough moves through as well, with 30-40 kt of deep layer shear.
Surface-based CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and MLCAPE of up to 1500
J/kg indicates plenty of instability. One thing lacking for
severe weather will be relative lack of height falls. But model
vertical motion is strong and the instability and shear should
be sufficient for the development of strong to severe
thunderstorms from as early as 11 AM or Noon and lasting into
the mid-evening hours.

The CAMs indicate potential for broken line segments with the
main focus across CT and western and central MA, where updraft
helicity swaths are focused. Damaging wind appears to be the
primary severe threat, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out in those areas. The least threat is in RI and southeast MA,
where the majority of the day should be dry, but remnant
showers and thunderstorms may move through late in the day or
evening.

I’d take this and run with it 

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5 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Date night. Gaucho’s in Manchester

My high school girlfriend's birthday happened to be the date of the Pats Snow Bowl game (obviously didn't know what it would turn into at the time, but I digress). So I turned it into making her dinner at home so the game could be on. Gotta score some points and get what you want at the same time.

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2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

My high school girlfriend's birthday happened to be the date of the Pats Snow Bowl game (obviously didn't know what it would turn into at the time, but I digress). So I turned it into making her dinner at home so the game could be on. Gotta score some points and get what you want at the same time.

I was at that game, good times! 

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If NAMNEST is right I may want to hang around Boston. I can convince my girlfriend by taking her to the Bruins shop and buying her a Charlie Mcavoy jersey. She's a Florida Panthers fan (probably 1 of 7) but she likes Mcavoy and has said she has a feeling I'll be buying her a Mcavoy jersey some day. I initially said no b/c if I'm buying a jersey for someone it's me...but this may be worth it. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

If NAMNEST is right I may want to hang around Boston. I can convince my girlfriend by taking her to the Bruins shop and buying her a Charlie Mcavoy jersey. She's a Florida Panthers fan (probably 1 of 7) but she likes Mcavoy and has said she has a feeling I'll be buying her a Mcavoy jersey some day. I initially said no b/c if I'm buying a jersey for someone it's me...but this may be worth it. 

NAMNEST has higher dews guessing thats's whats causing better convection 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

If NAMNEST is right I may want to hang around Boston. I can convince my girlfriend by taking her to the Bruins shop and buying her a Charlie Mcavoy jersey. She's a Florida Panthers fan (probably 1 of 7) but she likes Mcavoy and has said she has a feeling I'll be buying her a Mcavoy jersey some day. I initially said no b/c if I'm buying a jersey for someone it's me...but this may be worth it. 

About 90% Chance it’s not worth it near Boston 

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HRRR has been pretty consistent with some decent activity in Connecticut. You can tell though how the lack of forcing is a bit problem because it doesn't really sustain the activity. Good CAPE and decent lapse rates help get things going but lacking the forcing to keep everything going. Kinda like pulse-type but not necessarily as shear is sufficient. 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

If NAMNEST is right I may want to hang around Boston. I can convince my girlfriend by taking her to the Bruins shop and buying her a Charlie Mcavoy jersey. She's a Florida Panthers fan (probably 1 of 7) but she likes Mcavoy and has said she has a feeling I'll be buying her a Mcavoy jersey some day. I initially said no b/c if I'm buying a jersey for someone it's me...but this may be worth it. 

Save the gas and order the jersey online.

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

HRRR has been pretty consistent with some decent activity in Connecticut. You can tell though how the lack of forcing is a bit problem because it doesn't really sustain the activity. Good CAPE and decent lapse rates help get things going but lacking the forcing to keep everything going. Kinda like pulse-type but not necessarily as shear is sufficient. 

Hope so. I am near IJD. I am generally far enough NW that we definitely get more Tstorm activity than the coast, but am I far enough West to get in on this today and tonight? Hard to say.

Forecast this morning looked less enthusiastic than it did yesterday, which is not a shocker given this year so far. 
 

They are saying IJD will be about the dividing line between haves and have not chances today and tonight. 

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Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

Hope so. I am near IJD. I am generally far enough NW that we definitely get more Tstorm activity than the coast, but am I far enough West to get in on this today and tonight? Hard to say.

Forecast this morning looked less enthusiastic than it did yesterday, which is not a shocker given this year so far. 
 

They are saying IJD will be about the dividing line between haves and have not chances today and tonight. 

It's also possible the HRRR may be overstating it :lol: 

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1 minute ago, radarman said:

nice to have the Goes-16 1 minute data online... If you stare it long enough you might convince yourself a TCU is developing this afternoon

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso1&product=vis

 

getting some nice looking clouds around here already reminds me of a Florida morning 

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2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

NWS point and click has removed t-storms from my forecast completely. Lol can’t win 

RI and SE MA has never been a thunderstorm haven. Yes you do get them sometimes, but many years I remember only getting 2 good storms the whole year. 
 

I noticed a huge difference when we moved to Interior CT. I feel like, In a long term sense, the line dividing haves and have nots is drawn from Colchester CT almost directly to Woonsocket, or even Millville…and runs NNE from there but I am not as sure about where it sits in MA because I’m less familiar, except to say Braintree is a no-no.

Inland RI and Inland SE MA see noticeable favor for snowfall compared to the coast. But I’m afraid that for thunderstorms, the rules are more strict and involves more of an East/West factor than the snow line does. 
 

With snow usually the south coast always is screwed, but Boston might do OK! But with thunderstorms, not so easy, those storms will be long-dead before they get anywhere near Boston. And sometimes even the south coast is favored for Tstorms compared to Providence county, if you are far enough west. I would be Southbury CT is always better than Providence Country RI for Tstorms.

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 DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front crossing the
   central Appalachians, with a lead pressure trough extending
   southward roughly along the Champlain/Hudson Valleys.  A steady
   increase in the CU field is noted, as temperatures warm into the low
   80s resulting in widespread 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

   A gradual increase in storm development is expected over the next
   couple of hours, as additional heating/destabilization occurs. 
   Updrafts will be aided by favorable speed shear, amidst moderately
   strong/roughly unidirectional flow with height on the southeastern
   side of the southwestern Quebec upper low.  As such, storms will
   become increasingly capable of producing damaging wind gusts --
   initially in a more localized manner but become more widespread with
   time as storm coverage increases and convection grows upscale
   locally into small clusters/lines.  Initial WW issuance is expected
   within the next hour, extending from the eastern New York into New
   England.
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1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Man…Montreal must be the Canadian version of Oklahoma City 

They do get a lot of thunderstorms up here.  I feel like even here there are a lot of days I’m seeing stuff move across S.Quebec.

And if you’ve ever driven up there, it’s as flat as Oklahoma and huge miles long fields.  Moisture pooling up the St Lawrence River Valley giving them a solid jolt.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2022

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-027-220000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0479.220721T1540Z-220722T0000Z/

MA
.    MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKSHIRE            ESSEX               FRANKLIN
HAMPDEN              HAMPSHIRE           MIDDLESEX
WORCESTER
$$
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