Tatamy Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 50 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: So close yet so far You are not kidding. I have a station at a family members house in Cherry Grove (east of RM). There has been no rain at this station since 7/5. The streak ended today and I recorded 0.01” with the cell pictured above. It fizzled out on radar once it started to move east from RM. As others have noted there seem to be a lot of places that cannot get any rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Better than nothing but not a whole lot here on si... 0.29" on the west shore and 0.45" in Meiers Corners section. Did fall short of 90° though at 88°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Lol the areas that needed the rain the worst got none 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Kinda disappointed with the overall storms so far. Was hoping area wide pounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 In a 3 hour period there are 4 working fire calls, 3 of them within the past hour... in Nassau County Several possible lightning strikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Suns out strong...up to 90 again...81 was the low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 0.08” in north-central Suffolk. Sun’s out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 It will be variably cloudy and somewhat cooler tomorrow. Temperatures will generally remain at or above normal through the remainder of the month. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +4.92. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.612 today. On July 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.417 (RMM). The July 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.504 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 I am good with the high heat. This past week was enough for me. I would be happy with 75-80 and low dews until November. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Not a drop in Somerset This heat is as useless as dry/cold We literally received about two drops on my window early afternoon and nothing else today. Sun shining now so not looking good for some relief to plants and lawns here. I even washed my car yesterday for the first time in a month - hoping to trigger a rain event. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said: We literally received about two drops on my window early afternoon and nothing else today. Sun shining now so not looking good for some relief to plants and lawns here. I even washed my car yesterday for the first time in a month - hoping to trigger a rain event. :-) I'm going outside right now to water. Have to keep my tomatoes and other vegetable plants going in this terrible parched environment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Got 0.55 inches of rain in staten island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 23 minutes ago, psv88 said: I am good with the high heat. This past week was enough for me. I would be happy with 75-80 and low dews until November. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Cool summers like we used to get before 2010 are a thing of the past. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 Near normal and cool years bolded Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 2021….+1.1….+1.2 2020…+2.6….+2.9 2019…+1.5…..+1.8 2018…+1.7……+1.8 2017…..+0.2….0.0 2016….+2.5….+2.5 2015….+1.4…..+0.8 2014…..-0.1…..-0.1 2013….+1.2…..+1.3 2012…..+1.7…..+1.7 2011…..+2.2…..+1.8 2010….+3.9…..+3.4 2009….-0.6…..-0.6 2008….+1.2……+1.4 2007…..+0.3…..+0.6 2006…..+1.7……+1.6 2005…..+2.6…..+3.3 2004…..-0.3….-0.6 2003…+0.4….+0.4 2002…..+1.6….+2.3 2001…..+0.7…..+0.6 2000…..-1.2…..-1.3 1999…..+2.7…..+2.9 1998….+0.7…..+0.7 1997….-0.3……-0.8 1996…..-0.6….-0.4 1995….+1.4…..+1.8 1994….+1.5…..+1.8 1993….+1.4…..+1.3 1992….-2.0…..-2.3 1991…..+1.8…..+1.7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 .43 inch of rain here, 86 degree high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Thanks for the detailed responses to my questions about NYC, would it perhaps be correct to assume that the temperatures are more affected on the warmest days and those with light winds? I would think stronger winds might mix the air more and reduce the effect of the tree cover? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Watches can be just about all dropped at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Finally some needed rain before here in Brooklyn. It's still really hot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 0.28" rainfall in N. Smithtown today. Min/max 76/83 through 7:20pm. Current temp 79° F July total rainfall through 7/25 is 2.50" A little dry, but not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: Thanks for the detailed responses to my questions about NYC, would it perhaps be correct to assume that the temperatures are more affected on the warmest days and those with light winds? I would think stronger winds might mix the air more and reduce the effect of the tree cover? We had a mix of days this heatwave with lighter and stronger winds. But NYC temperatures were in line with the South Shore sea breeze sites from JFK to ISP. So the high temperature cool bias has been pretty consistent across multiple patterns. I can still remember the old heatwaves like July 1977 when Central Park was one of the warmest sites. There are many more examples like the one below between recent years and before the mid to late 90s. Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 NJ HARRISON COOP 102 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 98 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 97 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 96 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 96 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 96 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 96 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 96 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 96 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 95 NY CENTERPORT COOP 95 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 95 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 95 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 95 Monthly Data for July 1977 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NY WEST POINT COOP 101 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 101 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 100 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 100 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100 NY SCARSDALE COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 NY SUFFERN COOP 99 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 99 CT DANBURY COOP 99 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 99 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 99 CT GROTON COOP 99 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 98 NY CARMEL COOP 98 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 97 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 97 NY MINEOLA COOP 97 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 97 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 97 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 97 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 97 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 96 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 96 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 95 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Watches dropped for all but ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 7/25 BLM: 94 New Brnswck: 93 PHL: 92 EWR: 92 ACY: 91 TTN: 91 LGA: 89 TEB: 87 NYC: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We had a mix of days this heatwave with lighter and stronger winds. But NYC temperatures were in line with the South Shore sea breeze sites from JFK to ISP. So the high temperature cool bias has been pretty consistent across multiple patterns. I can still remember the old heatwaves like July 1977 when Central Park was one of the warmest sites. There are many more examples like the one below between recent years and before the mid to late 90s. Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 NJ HARRISON COOP 102 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 98 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 97 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 96 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 96 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 96 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 96 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 96 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 96 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 95 NY CENTERPORT COOP 95 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 95 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 95 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 95 Monthly Data for July 1977 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NY WEST POINT COOP 101 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 101 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 100 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 100 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100 NY SCARSDALE COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 NY SUFFERN COOP 99 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 99 CT DANBURY COOP 99 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 99 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 99 CT GROTON COOP 99 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 98 NY CARMEL COOP 98 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 97 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 97 NY MINEOLA COOP 97 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 97 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 97 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 97 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 97 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 96 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 96 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 95 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 There also seems to be a more wide spread list of 100 degrees readings in 1977 and the 2022 list seems to be just the eastern N.J. area around Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 Gfs has 100s August 8th. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 Missed the rain and for those in the miss, the next shot is Thu am as heat buildsback thu/fri. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 Will see if the warmer spots continue the heatwave Tue/Wed where its borderline for 90s. But with clearing and combined with recent dryness - could see the warmer spots continue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 at least we all knew this was a bust when we looked at radar this morning. the spc needs its own northeast division 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 some select Newark and Central Park max temps thru the years... date....Newark...NYC... 6/15/1994...101.....96 6/21/1953...100.....97 6/22/1988...101.....98 6/27/1966...101...101 6/30/2021...103.....98 7/01/1963...100.....98 7/03/1966...105...103 7/04/1949...105...102 7/08/1993...105...100 7/10/1993...105...102 7/14/1954...102...100 7/15/1995...104...102 7/18/2012...104...100 7/22/2011...108...104 7/27/2005...101.....97 7/31/1954...102...100 8/05/1944...102...101 8/09/2001...105...103 8/26/1948...103...103 9/02/1953...105...102 9/11/1983.....99.....99 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 85 here today for the high, heat wave over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: Gfs has 100s August 8th. It's coming. Yes I posted a map like that late last night then this morning's run dropped it and 18Z brought it back. But it is very much in the time-frame during which the GFS is extremely poor and not to be relied upon. I posted to the map just to show what 100 degrees and the 3 H's would look like but we're nowhere near there yet. If the maps keep showing that and if other models jump on board, we will definitely have reason to talk it up some more and I do think it's possible that that may happen at some point in the next 8 weeks. Even though this current heatwave has ended in NYC we're still very much in an above normal temperature pattern. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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