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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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12z NAM likes the idea a little better ...

An important factor's going to come down to how much we can add to CAPE via insolation. The T1 at Logan is 23C at 18z tomorrow... That's a bump over previous runs...and suggests there's some correction potential to warm more.  It's looking real real gunky though... 

Even without that, where activity still manages to ignite I suspect the rain rates proliferate tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

About the only aspect I use the NAM for ( ...other than gawking at winter QPF numbers when it's yankin' people's chains with it's NW coastal storm bias...) is convection initial conditioning.  It's always had a sneaking decent job in that one area. 

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We may get a bit of a break last week of July before it warms again. Definitely a summer pattern. I’m sure it will rain at Mt Mansfield every day though.

Well looks to me like SE Canada heights may not be pumped much , I don’t see heights In Atlantic  east of New England Getting too high (I recall many 594 ridges there in summers ) so it seems like AN next week with dews but then more or less the usual 1f AN with more manageable dews possible the week after and no guarantee what happens the week after as SE Canada and NW Atlantic still May have predominantly lower heights 

I mean do we have any idea how heights looks in SE Canada 1’st week in August 

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I would guess the biggest thing the lower heights in SE Canada have given most of New England the first half of summer is lower than normal real feels (heat index) even if big 4 are a bit above normal as we’ve baked in low dew sun (except Taunton apparently) I think the idea that this summer has been comfy overall  (prior to today) so far could be born out by looking at the real feel Temps that account for low dewpoints. If those are even kept and measured / charted. The coc phenomenon 

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34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well looks to me like SE Canada heights may not be pumped much , I don’t see heights In Atlantic  east of New England Getting too high (I recall many 594 ridges there in summers ) so it seems like AN next week with dews but then more or less the usual 1f AN with more manageable dews possible the week after and no guarantee what happens the week after as SE Canada and NW Atlantic still May have predominantly lower heights 

I mean do we have any idea how heights looks in SE Canada 1’st week in August 

At times it may be like 85-90 with high dews, but it’s pretty warm to me. I’m sure some 90-95s thrown in too.

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FIT's hygrometer needs calibration ...or at minimum a check. 
Today is a good righteous reason to check that station.. There is no wind appreciable enough to argue mixing idiosyncrasies/ and geography, yet EEN, ASH to BED... ORH ...pretty much everyone in the triangulum that surrounds FIT has a DP of 64, while FIT is 57.

I am located 10 miles as the ruler line goes from that station site, and all home stations are 68 to 72 ... and it feels more sultry than 57 by a goodly margin.   Now even owing to the local garden/rural effect and accounting for that, FIT seems to me to be a modest to at time egregious negative outlier. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

FIT's hygrometer needs calibration ...or at minimum a check. 
Today is a good righteous reason to check that station.. There is no wind appreciable enough to argue mixing idiosyncrasies/ and geography, yet EEN, ASH to BED... ORH ...pretty much everyone in the triangulum that surrounds FIT has a DP of 64, while FIT is 57.

I am located 10 miles as the ruler line goes from that station site, and all home stations are 68 to 72 ... owing to the local garden/rural effect and accounting for that, that ( even) that seems to me to be a modest to at time egregious negative outlier at FIT. 

Yup…running about 4F too low on average right now.

image.png

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Speaking of dews here is something interesting for my location.

I just went back and looked at the graph of my dews for 2022.  I have only hit 65F dews 6 times this calendar year.  I have hit a 70F dew twice, for about an hour each time.  Statistically I don't know if this is some type of record for my location but it has sure been a comfortable summer.   The uncoming dews will feel like a steam bath.  Our electric rates increase 32% on August 1rst so lets get the muggies out of the way so I will be able to keep the AC off by then.

 

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24 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Stein wins again here. Looks like the KASH got soaked but not a drop here.

Got rain on NE side of town here  . Feels like summer in New England in ASH,  not S Georgia  thankfully . I.E Weak “beef” this tofu is replaced by NY strip Tue-Fri

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Just now, CT Rain said:

Tomorrow's severe threat looks decent. Plenty of low level/deep layer shear. Wouldn't be surprised to see a spinner or two in New England. 

I got bunned above for daring others.. .heh.

yeah, like the shear profiles and the low LCL thing/overlay

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