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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Maybe some iso stuff CNE/NNE?  wind field is kinda crappy though.

I trust the machines. 

Seriously though, these have been pretty helpful at IDing time periods to watch for. Because of the random forecast creation of these probabilities, it's not like the SREF where large probabilities may be dominated by one variable (like CAPE). This is what it is using for inputs.

"These include surface-based CAPE and CIN, 10-m winds (U10, V10, UV10); surface temperature and specific humidity (T2M, Q2M), precipitable water (PWAT), accumulated precipitation (APCP), wind shear from the surface to 850 and to 500 hPa (SHR850, SHR500), and mean sea level pressure (MSLP). For Day 1, three additional predictors are supplied: surface relative humidity (RH2M), lifting condensation level height above ground (ZLCL), and surface to 850 hPa storm relative helicity (SRH)"

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On 7/12/2022 at 5:44 PM, dendrite said:

Here’s a COC pic. Enjoy.

image.png

 

On 7/12/2022 at 5:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This will be fun to verify .  We salute you.

 

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We tried to tell'em

16546.gif

Not bad. Some remember that as 30s and 40s but beer will do that.  Guess we learn yet one more time that modeling often wins over sweat lodge vision-quests.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

:lol: You can only bang your head into a wall so many times.  Just the inability to have an actual discussion about obs/models will drive anyone mad that actually likes meteorology.

I mean there's stretches where we debate how humid it was when dews are averaging in the 60s, but when we're arguing 48 vs 70 seemingly every day it becomes hard to read and a waste of effort. It's finally coming this time though. I'm ready for a little 90/70 for a few days. It makes me feel alive.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I mean there's stretches where we debate how humid it was when dews are averaging in the 60s, but when we're arguing 48 vs 70 seemingly every day it becomes hard to read and a waste of effort. It's finally coming this time though. I'm ready for a little 90/70 for a few days. It makes me feel alive.

Not the first time in the past few weeks that someone, even a lurker, has made a comment about the lack of any desire to have an actual meteorological discussion on here.

Hope it doesn’t come off as being a d*ck but the head in the sand stuff makes it like why even bother discussing trends and models.

The heat and dews are coming, modeling agrees on that for the first time all summer there isn’t a cP shot out of Canada modeled after a couple hot days.  This upcoming stretch will have some legs with heat/humidity that we haven’t seen yet.

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28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean there's stretches where we debate how humid it was when dews are averaging in the 60s, but when we're arguing 48 vs 70 seemingly every day it becomes hard to read and a waste of effort. It's finally coming this time though. I'm ready for a little 90/70 for a few days. It makes me feel alive.

I wouldn't be surprised if that's an 83..87/ 68...73 type of week.  I'm not getting a whole helluva lot of solar insolation vibe out of that synoptic appeal.  Looks like morning debris ..then hazed sultriness with distant booms capping high potential.   Definitely Mon/Tue...

Thur/Frid  ( for now ) look like the best chances for fart on the neck days.

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Check out this GFS surface synopsis ...18z Wed, 974 years from now... Note, 582 hydrostatic heights over such a large envelopment. That's f something to behold ...even if it is likely the GFS daydreaming.  By the way, ...for the first time ever the UK office has officiated a forecast for London taking the higher temperature to 40 C, purely as a metrical/objective forecast projection.  

There's a little known global wave spacing -related telecon that when it is cold(hot) in NW Europe, it tends to be that way over the eastern U.S.  Not sure if that works in the summer, though.  But it "might" not be a coincidence that we are heating up this next week at least in "some" fashion, as it fits the 104 on Tuesday.  But man... 101 then 104 for London, Mon and Tue?   wow..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know how to do the GIFs so it would be better looped but the GFS tickles our fannies with EML plumes.

image.thumb.png.1de274295ec95d6b737158c38f398b77.png

Yeah..mentioned earlier, while no direct W/SW heat plume assaults down stream, there are these kind of non-committal ejecta that offer more of a indirect/mixing with continental cook.   It's hot...but 'how much so' 

The 850 mb heat isn't also associated with a deep EML either but ...that 'side swiping' is similar in this context.

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