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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My deck needs repair, but taking that out and doing a patio. Just makes more sense for us. 

Yea. If you can walkout to the backyard then I find decks to be overkill. Patios work better and are more cost efficient, and easier to maintain. Decks should really be reserved for homes that are raised from the backyard.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Amazingly strange how we had heavy echoes overheard but barely any rain. 

Odd, same here.. a whopping .10" so far. It actually looks fairly descent to the southwest, so maybe more convective cells move in with heavier downpours

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I just checked a bunch of wunderground sites in the UK.  I found a number of stations  in the 100 to 102 range.  This one is the hottest I found:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ILONDO321

It shows a high so far of 105.4.

Others I have seen pushing 103:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IOXFORDS33

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IHUNTI10

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ILEOMI3

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22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. If you can walkout to the backyard then I find decks to be overkill. Patios work better and are more cost efficient, and easier to maintain. Decks should really be reserved for homes that are raised from the backyard.

I wish, I would prefer a patio over the deck, but we take what we have for now...probably only have another 10 years on the current deck, so we have some time at least..  

20220718_100630.jpg

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This more than less echoes what Ryan and I were mentioning yesterday...

   ...Northeastern CONUS...
   Scattered thunderstorms should form from midday through early
   afternoon over western/northern parts of the outlook area and spread
   eastward/northeastward, offering scattered damaging winds, with at
   least a few 50+ kt/severe gusts possible.  A few tornadoes also may
   occur, especially over northern parts of the outlook area in the
   eastern NY/western New England region.

   A seasonally strong superposition of rich low-level moisture with
   increasing large-scale ascent and favorable deep shear (ahead of the
   ejecting northern trough segment aloft) will support convective
   organization across the region.

At the time, I was thinking more short duration huge rain rates.. but, yeah..

I'm not liking satellite trends though... I was thinking there was some chance we'd end up even 15 or so % less ceiling and allowing insolation through, but the recent/morning trends are slammed shut.   Not sure this system has enough of those mechanics to do much other than heavy rain, without more instability/sfc to mid lvl lapsing.  The activity along the S coast appears associated with diffused warm boundary... and there is a climo precedence for morning w-frontal smudge, then lull, then ?  

Day's are long... the southern edge of the miasma is thinning N ( perhaps more so then moving N) over N NJ ...Long Island, so we could end up with dim sun marginal help mid afternoon just by 'gunkology'  Not to discredit the efforts of the forecaster.. but he's on to mentioning, "..outflow/differential-heating boundaries..", whereas for now, the d(insolation) is pretty close to 0 from ALB to TAN across the area.

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NAM numbers... 12z

Hottest day of the year falls on climatology - that's a bad luck omen for winter!  

 (No, I'm kidding - but that outta get the panicky winter-event codependents sniffing their armpits for comfort...)

But these 12z numbers for Wednesday July 20 are impressive!   850 mb temperatures over LGA to Logan are +19 .. +20C.  The T1 at Logan at 18z is 32C at roughly 300 feet( 980 mb).  The slope temp probably LIM--> around 34C (93 F)

This could have been 34 --> 36C for nastier high of 96F (rounding notwithstanding), but ...the 700 mb RH values are between 65 and 72%, which by convention assumes partly cloudy.  I suspect that is the limiting factor.  The 12z Wednesday morning hydrostats are roughly 574 dm in the area, but they surge to 578 ( almost 580!!) by 00z.  That means that the model is calculating heat input into the system, particularly because there isn't appreciable +d(dp).   So the expansion of the thickness came most likely from diurnal heating.   Take increase(decrease) cloud coverage and the temp probably adjusts - which is intuitive anyway..ha. 

Anyway, these numbers in the region suggest 95, which is the 'unofficial' big heat threshold.   But,... the real impact of which ...the DPs in the area are 70+ ...so we'll likely need headlines in the area posted if these NAM numbers get more ..support/confident.  I should note, the 00z Euro was also 94-96F across all of interior eastern Mass ...down to NJ.. so, yeah...it's not alone on Wednesday's climo crowing. 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Screen porch ftw here.  We had a deck. For almost 20 years and rarely used it.  We use the screen porch almost daily from May to September.   Shaded. No bugs.  

Yep, few things better than drinking coffee out on the screen porch in the morning with birds chirping away.  Great for the cats too, who sit transfixed by rabbits, chipmunks, etc.  Too buggy in these parts for the deck.  A typically windy spot on the coast might be tolerable.

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s been light drizzle here for hours. Not sure how we’re going to see any severe here today with these conditions? 

Yeah ... I posted too long of a read an hour or so ago - I tend to agree with asking the question.

I "think" what may happen just looking at the sat and then day-dreaming ... there may be some eruption of activity over N-PA over to SE NY later this afternoon, as there is an axis of thinning sky cast creeping up to that region associated with diffused warm boundary passage.   "If" so...that activity would then smear ENE across the area as decaying rains ... but falling through a PWAT anomaly that may help rain rates..

But as far as severe... heh.  I don't think this has the mechanical/synoptic forcing necessary to do much without CAPE - also a hypothesis being tested

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Seems like a fairly wet day. 

Might not be a widespread severe event day, but maybe the kind of day where the river might get higher tonight, and there will be some claps of thunder. 
 

The QPF maps are interesting. I don’t have nearly the amount of experience looking at warm-season storm maps that I have had watching cold season storms approach with model runs etc. I noticed what looked like all-over-the-place QPF over SNE for the next 48h block of time, with the RAP and GFS looking Juiciest. But some maps looked like they had a hole or void over us. I don’t know what I am doing when looking at those though. 
 

It has been moments of light rain so far this morning, but a much stronger cell has been taunting an approach to the S coast of CT. 

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Under the radar kind of oddity to this day... as it then moves into Tuesday thru Thurs...

Firstly, we have the first pan-dimensional heat wave likely occurring spanning these next three days - we haven't focused on that earth shattering tear-shedding inspirational natural specter (I know... heh).  But yeah.  One day of which may be 'big heat' threshold.   Not bad for an overall +PNAP flow structure across the continent...

But ... the under the rad-ism is, how often do we have any semblance of a severe threat, however presently fleeting that appears to be..., and then go INTO a heat wave from that circumstance, around our region of the country?

That's rare for us.  We get our severe by heat obliteration events - or almost always have.  It really woulda been cool to see someone get the severe and then sore to 92/72 tomorrow.   That'd be some mock-Dallas antics there...

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Under the radar kind of oddity to this day... as it then moves into Tuesday thru Thurs...

Firstly, we have the first pan-dimensional heat wave likely occurring spanning these next three days - we haven't focused on that earth shattering tear-shedding inspirational natural specter (I know... heh).  But yeah.  One day of which may be 'big heat' threshold.   Not bad for an overall +PNAP flow structure across the continent...

But ... the under the rad-ism is, how often do we have any semblance of a severe threat, however presently fleeting that appears to be..., and then go INTO a heat wave from that around our region of the country?

That's rare for us.  We get our severe by heat obliteration events - or almost always have.  It really woulda been cool to see someone get the severe and then sore to 92/72 tomorrow.   That'd be some mock-Dallas antics there...

Just the fish in LI Sound getting the special marine warnings...of course they won't care about the 92/72 tomorrow.

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26 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Seems like a fairly wet day. 

Might not be a widespread severe event day, but maybe the kind of day where the river might get higher tonight, and there will be some claps of thunder. 
 

The QPF maps are interesting. I don’t have nearly the amount of experience looking at warm-season storm maps that I have had watching cold season storms approach with model runs etc. I noticed what looked like all-over-the-place QPF over SNE for the next 48h block of time, with the RAP and GFS looking Juiciest. But some maps looked like they had a hole or void over us. I don’t know what I am doing when looking at those though. 
 

It has been moments of light rain so far this morning, but a much stronger cell has been taunting an approach to the S coast of CT. 

Wiz just smashed a spider with his Bruins jersey.

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27 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Just the fish in LI Sound getting the special marine warnings...of course they won't care about the 92/72 tomorrow.

Day dreams ftw -

Nice TCU build up over NW NJ in that 'seam' where the denser overcast opened up like we envisioned. 

That's probably going to cut loose in there.   That'll then propagate down stream this afternoon as heavy rain - I suspect.  

It's 78/72 here with pittering rain and urine puddles ... gross.   The sky has that day-glo brightness to it, so it's allow some modest insolation to the ground. 

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Re the flood threat... meh, I spoke about it yesterday but one of my assumptions isn't panning out too well.   Cell movement velocities ... too fast. 

Yes, where these 50 DBZ strafe over the air'll turn blue-gray choking water board intensity but these this activities is haulin' ass.  

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