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June 2022


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The last 5 days of June are averaging  78degs.(70/87) or +4.

Month to date is  70.5[-0.8].       June should end at  71.8[-0.2].

Reached 86 here late---but had trouble holding 80 with the PM sea breeze.

Today: 83-88, wind w. to s., m. sunny, 69 tomorrow AM.

72*(90%RH) here at 7am.      74* at 9am.        76* at Noon.       77* at 2pm.       Reached 81* at 7pm.        

 

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Newark is on track for another 95°+ high temperature today. So Newark currently has 5 days of 95°+. This is the 2nd highest on record by June 25th. But this is the first of the years with no heatwave by June 25th. The first heatwave could finally arrive between June 30th and July 2nd if the Euro is correct.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Jan 1 to Jun 25
First Heatwave
1 1988-06-25 6 6-12 to 6-16
- 1984-06-25 6 6-7 to 6-11
2 2022-06-25 5 0
- 2021-06-25 5 6-5 to 6-9
- 1994-06-25 5 6-17 to 6-19
- 1987-06-25 5 5-29 to 6-1
- 1945-06-25 5 6-14 to 6-18
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Another hot one on tap with more low / mid 90s perhaps one of the hotter spots in Central / Northeast NJ can top 97.  Front arrives overnight into Mon (6/27).  We'll see how much we can score from showers and storms, it had looked like a possible soaker earlier. 

Beyond there, cooler Tuesday (6/28) and warming 6/29 (likely uppers 80s shy of 90 but outside chance of one of the hotter spots can start a 90 stretch). 

Thu (6/30) June closes hot with the start of the seasons first heat wave/ hat trick, for most, especially in the heat locations.  Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) heat peaks we see >18c 850s perhaps near 20C before a cold front comes through Saturday overnight (7/2) into Sunday (7/3).  Models have a kinder, drier and sunnier July 4th now, with 80s and great weather. 

Beyond that (7/5)- guidance a bit hazy as to weather (whether) the Rockies ridge build and sends trough and frequent storms into the north east or the flow and heights are a bit flatter and we are warm with storm chances and pieces of heat come east by 7/6-7/8.  Time will tell.

 

Hot in the city today.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark is on track for another 95°+ high temperature today. So Newark currently has 5 days of 95°+. This is the 2nd highest on record by June 25th. But this is the first of the years with no heatwave by June 25th. The first heatwave could finally arrive between June 30th and July 2nd if the Euro is correct.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Jan 1 to Jun 25
First Heatwave
1 1988-06-25 6 6-12 to 6-16
- 1984-06-25 6 6-7 to 6-11
2 2022-06-25 5 0
- 2021-06-25 5 6-5 to 6-9
- 1994-06-25 5 6-17 to 6-19
- 1987-06-25 5 5-29 to 6-1
- 1945-06-25 5 6-14 to 6-18

Show how strong that heat from the Plains/Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and central Gulf was.  Only the strong blocking buffeted the sustained version of that into the region.  Great stats as always BW.  The record heat in Europe and Gulf coast that hit this year had also tied or beat records in years where we were very cool /wet in June.  We'll see where July takes us. Stormy or more dry and brief heat interludes or more sustained pieces coming east.

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15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Show how strong that heat from the Plains/Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and central Gulf was.  Only the strong blocking buffeted the sustained version of that into the region.  Great stats as always BW.  The record heat in Europe and Gulf coast that hit this year had also tied or beat records in years where we were very cool /wet in June.  We'll see where July takes us. Stormy or more dry and brief heat interludes or more sustained pieces coming east.

It’s interesting how LGA has been more an extension of the cooler trough in New England this month. While EWR has been more in line with the heat just our SW in the Mid-Atlantic.  So Manhattan has been the dividing line between the 2 regional patterns this month.

This summer is starting out with EWR having warmer temperature departures than LGA. We saw a pattern like this last summer. It’s a reversal from LGA having the higher departures from 2018 to 2020. So our stations are very sensitive to prevailing wind directions since they are located so close to the Atlantic and LI Sound. 
 

JJA 2022 so far

EWR…+1.5

LGA….-1.3

JJA 2021

EWR…+2.5

LGA…..+0.7

JJA….2020

EWR….+2.4

LGA…..+4.2

JJA….2019

EWR….+1.3

LGA…..+2.0

JJA……2018

EWR….+1.3

LGA……+2.6

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20 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Summer weather despite lots of proclamations  about wet and no heat. Seeing 95 now for Friday

 

Question..whats the deal with rain on Monday..is this scattered stuff in the morning?

People talked about no sustained heat.... 

Allsnow talked about the rain a month or 2 ago when it rained more...

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24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We still get 90s despite a New England trough. Imagine if the trough were gone. We'd probably hit 100+ at EWR easy. 

Definitely, though this trough has come with lower fees which allows highs to soar when we have full sun and anything but onshore flow.   

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We still get 90s despite a New England trough. Imagine if the trough were gone. We'd probably hit 100+ at EWR easy. 

Toledo, Ohio had a record high of 100° this week. So far Newark only has a June monthly high of 96°. This is the coolest on record for all the 100° June years in Toledo. Most years Newark also made it to 100° in June. So this is an unusually amplified omega blocking pattern for this time of year.
 

Time Series Summary for Toledo Area, OH (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Newark Highest Max  Temperature 
1 1988 104 101
2 2012 103 99
3 1934 101 100
4 2022 100 96
- 1952 100 102
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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

Summer weather despite lots of proclamations  about wet and no heat. Seeing 95 now for Friday

 

Question..whats the deal with rain on Monday..is this scattered stuff in the morning?

12z RGEM shows a pretty good line of showers/storms moving through during the afternoon tomorrow. HRRR looks pretty good too. It has gotten very dry out there, so hopefully these models will be correct about us getting a decent amount of rain tomorrow.

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A cold front will move across the region tomorrow with showers and thundershowers. It will bring a decisive but short-lived end to this weekend's heat.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +27.55 today. The old daily record was +25.02, which was set in 2009.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.646 today.

On June 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.817 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.699 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.1° (0.9° below normal).

 

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26 minutes ago, binbisso said:

What a glorious weekend! Temps right around 90* with heat indices  below actual temperatures.  If I'm not mistaken the highest heat index was at Newark yesterday 92*.  Not all 90゚ days are the same

It wasn't oppressive at all. In fact tomorrow will probably feel worse

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

What a glorious weekend! Temps right around 90* with heat indices  below actual temperatures.  If I'm not mistaken the highest heat index was at Newark yesterday 92*.  Not all 90゚ days are the same

We might get a heat advisory day next weekend. First heatwave probable 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. Showers and thundershowers are likely. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 83°

Philadelphia: 84°

Tomorrow be fair but somewhat cooler than normal.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 83.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 85.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 86.7°

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The last 4 days of June are averaging  75degs.(67/84) or +1.

Month to date is  70.9[-0.6].      June should end at  71.4[-0.6].

Reached 81 here yesterday.

Today: 73-78, wind w. to n., rain/TS from 10am-4pm, 64 tomorrow AM.

72*(89%RH) here at 7am.

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First time that MSP reached 100° in June with Newark staying under 100° since 1985.
 

Time Series Summary for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Newark 
1 1934 104 100
2 2011 103 102
3 1985 102 89
- 1931 102 96
4 2022 101 96
- 1988 101 101
5 1956 100 99
- 1933 100 99
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