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14 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Winters are super warm and summers are cloudy and cold. Really bizarre situation but kind of fits the bill of what to expect. When your air-mass is constantly advecting from the ocean there is no chance of massive heat domes. That means the Northeastern US is one of the most resilient in the world towards climate change.

But we will pay the price in other areas like the precipitation and tropical cyclone department.

 

Excessive precip and tropical systems  are definitely on the horizon. We are loosing that cool water buffer more and more. Those strong SW flow heat events actually do more to upwell cool water. It’s the constant onshore flow that allows out coastal water temps to soar. 

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With the stiff Northwest wind and lack of sea breeze for the last week Long Island reporting stations seem to be the warmest departures in our area  Except for Newark of course.

Newark+ 2.7

Caldwell+1

Teterboro-.7

Jfk +1.2

Islip +1.3

Farmingdale +2

Lga-.02

Cpk+.1

Hpn+.7

Bdr+1

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The extended EPS for the start of July looks similar to the July forecast issued on June 5th. Rockies ridge with another ridge east of New England. If this pattern verifies, then the strongest heat in July relative to the means will be to our west. 
 

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0D9FF8CF-984E-45DA-ADA3-A6377A94E1A0.thumb.png.3c3471169d0894ccf9d9d3f18bdae5cf.png


July Euro forecast issued on June 5th


A731CCFC-0996-4427-B898-E227E0C84B97.thumb.jpeg.cd0ff280f051734f400082da1a49a101.jpeg

 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

models honing in on a dumping for someone....2-3 inches in spots but still waffling east/west

 

Euro favors Philly to NYC

1656244800-d1JNHwzZv0U.png

I'm pretty well under half of normal for the month and this shows all too well that it might happen again. It has the cutoff for really good amounts about 5 miles east of me. Watch me get an inch or less again while along and to the west of the Taconic, 5 miles west, stays at or above average. 

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Cooler air will again push into the region. The unseasonably cool weather will continue until after midweek before warmer air returns.

Meanwhile, parts of the North Central United States and South saw record heat. Records included:

Duluth: 93° (old record: 88°, 1995)
Galveston: 97° (old record: 94°, 1875 and 1933)
Houston: 102° (old record: 101°, 1902)
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 100° (old record: 98°, 1933)

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +22.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.998 today.

On June 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.870 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.980 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (0.5° below normal).

 

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Maybe no heat waves for the foreseeable future but I’m sure the high due points will be here eventually so it’ll feel like it’s hot. 
 

On top of that I’m sure at some point this pattern is going to flip, I know we get stuck in stuck patterns but eventually it breaks down, maybe it’s too late but who knows. I’d be wanting it to break down soon instead of a heatwave in the fall.

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2 hours ago, dave0176 said:

Maybe no heat waves for the foreseeable future but I’m sure the high due points will be here eventually so it’ll feel like it’s hot. 
 

On top of that I’m sure at some point this pattern is going to flip, I know we get stuck in stuck patterns but eventually it breaks down, maybe it’s too late but who knows. I’d be wanting it to break down soon instead of a heatwave in the fall.

Well the warm patterns usually win in this climate.

But if this were November and I was looking for signs of the season ahead, I would say the core of the seasonal temps would be to our west and we would get shafted.

 

Of course its June and all of our summers are Humid and Hot as of late so it will arrive eventually.

But as I sit here with Montana-like summer temps on my back patio with all the windows open and no bugs…Im pretty happy with the current forecast.

69F at 9 pm

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22 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Well the warm patterns usually win in this climate.

But if this were November and I was looking for signs of the season ahead, I would say the core of the seasonal temps would be to our west and we would get shafted.

 

Of course its June and all of our summers are Humid and Hot as of late so it will arrive eventually.

But as I sit here with Montana-like summer temps on my back patio with all the windows open and no bugs…Im pretty happy with the current forecast.

69F at 9 pm

Definitely with you on the bug situation.

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29 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Well the warm patterns usually win in this climate.

But if this were November and I was looking for signs of the season ahead, I would say the core of the seasonal temps would be to our west and we would get shafted.

 

Of course its June and all of our summers are Humid and Hot as of late so it will arrive eventually.

But as I sit here with Montana-like summer temps on my back patio with all the windows open and no bugs…Im pretty happy with the current forecast.

69F at 9 pm

Usually I'd have seen lightning bugs by now but nothing

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7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Excessive precip and tropical systems  are definitely on the horizon. We are loosing that cool water buffer more and more. Those strong SW flow heat events actually do more to upwell cool water. It’s the constant onshore flow that allows out coastal water temps to soar. 

I would trade tropical cyclone hell for extended heat domes. Area is not like it used to be cannot handle large storm surges because of background SLR. It is my understanding that one significant TC could wipe us out if coinciding with the tides. :o

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The beat goes on….this will be a summer without heat 

Don't be so sure. For now yes there's no heat in sight. But remember, 1955 started out very very slowly in terms of heat and featured a blocking pattern like we've had this June. And they ended up with 14 90+ days in July and 10 90+ days in August. Frankly, if the pattern does flip, you can reverse that for this summer (if the pattern flips) and make it 10 in July and 14 in August, then add a few in September. It *could* happen, not saying that it will.

WX/PT

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1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Don't be so sure. For now yes there's no heat in sight. But remember, 1955 started out very very slowly in terms of heat and featured a blocking pattern like we've had this June. And they ended up with 14 90+ days in July and 10 90+ days in August. Frankly, if the pattern does flip, you can reverse that for this summer (if the pattern flips) and make it 10 in July and 14 in August, then add a few in September. It *could* happen, not saying that it will.

WX/PT

Agree. I personally hope for a cooler summer, but met summer just started. Can’t September even have our hottest temperature?

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Since the subject came up, in terms of all-time records valid now for NYC 1869-2022, the shortest turnaround times between primary records (high max, low min) appear to be these:

3 days _ 80F Oct 20 1969 to 32F Oct 23 1969 (and 31F 24th) _ 5" snow in Toronto on Oct 22nd during that transition.

3 days _ 25F Apr 9 1977 to 90F Apr 12 1977 ... a similar event took place the previous year, but 25F on Apr 12 was not a record low, while 91F on Apr 17th was broken in 2002, 96F and 92F the next two days remain records. 

4 days _ 96F June 23-24 1888 (both records) to 54F, 52F June 28, 29 (both record lows)

4 days _ 89F May 13 1956 (and high min 69F) to 39F May 17 1956

__ double transition in 1890 __ (see 1967 below, similar sequence a bit later in March-April)

5, 9 days _ 67 F Feb 27 1890 to 7F Mar 7 1890 (nine days) then back to 71F in five days Mar 12 1890

5 days _ 76F Mar 23 1923 to 13F Mar 28 (and 10F Mar 29) 1923 (also record lows 31st, Apr 1st)

5 days _ 39F Oct 7 1954 to 86F Oct 12 (also record high minima Oct 1-3 for a four-day initial downward plunge before the five day rise) ... this all followed by Hurricane Hazel Oct 15 1954.

6 days _ 27F Nov 6 1879 to 76F Nov 12 1879 (at the time three consecutive record lows  all still valid, followed in six days by four record highs, the last three have all since been broken)

6 days _ 96F May 27 1880 (third consecutive daily high) to 48F June 2 1880

6 days _ 99F June 25 1943 to 52F July 1 1943.

___ This had been a four day transition from 98F on 27th which lost its record standing in 1966 (101F)

7 days _ 88F Sep 28 1881 to 35F Oct 5 (87F Oct 1 had been a record at the time, broken in 1927 88F, so this had also been a four day transition -- Oct 1 1881 still holds the high minimum record of 72F ... there was another record low of 36F on Oct 6 then a temporary record high on Oct 8th (80F) which lasted until 1916 (84F)). 

7 days _ 95F Sep 22 1914 to 42F Sep 29 1914. Another record high 83F Oct 11th later broken by 1949 (85F). 

7 days _ 101F July 18 1953 to 57F July 25 1953. (July 17th 100F also a record high)

8 days _ 91F Oct 10 1939 to 35F Oct 18 1939

8 days _ 51F June 13 1953 to 97F June 21 1953. (June 20 also 97, not a record though)

10 days _ 41F May 25 1925 to 99F June 4, 1925 (94F June 3 was one short of 1895 record)

10 days _ 98F Aug 10 1949 to 55F Aug 20 1949 _ 11th was 99F but that was not a record (102F in 1944).

--------------

There are also some short transitions that involve secondary records (involving high min or low max sometimes with primary records, sometimes with each other).

The shortest interval applies to Mar 8 to 10 1987 which went from record high max (76F 8th) to record low max (28F 10th).

Another rapid change in three days, was from low max 62F June 22, 1952 to high max 99F June 25. The sequence there was 64, 62, 64, 85, 99, 100. 

Mar 3 2009 had a low max of 26F and Mar 7 had a high min of 51F. The min (12F) to max (70F) differential was impressive but neither were date records. May 12, 1881 (93F) still a valid high max was followed by two record low maxima within five days (52F 17th, 53F 18th). A similar occurrence happened in the autumn of that year, as noted in the first listing of records since it qualified there also.

In July 2013, record high minima of 81F, 83F July 18-19 were followed by a record low max of 68F on July 25th.

More recently, record low maxima of 51F on May 29-30 2021 were quickly followed by a high minimum of 76F on June 7 (June 6 also 76F but not a record). This was very similar to 1945 when a long string of record low max and min ending June 5th was followed by a record high minimum of 76F on the 15th and maxima of 92 to 93 each day 14th to 18th. A low max of 61F on June 7th 1891 was followed by two record highs (still valid) of 96F, 97F on 15th and 16th. A faster transition from max of 56F on June 6, 1894 to temporary record 90F on the 11th looks less impressive now that the eventual high maximum was 95F in 1973.

Two readings of 99F (June 30, July 1, 1964), only the first a record, were followed within eight days by a record low maximum of 63F on July 9th.

No record cold was involved but there were fast transitions from very cold to very warm weather in Feb 1930, and from very warm to cold in Feb 1946, both cases had record highs but not record lows. In Feb 1930, Feb 16-17 was quite cold (20F, 7F and 26F, 7F) then by Feb 19th it was 57F, and 20th 69F (still a record), followed by more record warmth including 75F on Feb 25th. In 1946, on the other hand, it went from a record high of 63F on Feb 14th to a reading of 14F around midnight 15th-16th then back up to 55F by the 17th. That was all followed by quite a warm March so the warm signal won out there. 

The temperature drop on Nov 12-13 1911 is remembered as being one of the largest, taking a plunge from a high of 69F to a low of 26F, the highs were 69, 33. Only the cold value is a low maximum record though. A record high of 67F on Dec 14, 1881 was followed within two days by a high of only 29F and low of 18F (not records but quite a drop).

One of the fastest warmups came in late December 1875. Lows of 2F and 1F on 19th and 20th, neither quite records within the "starter era" with -1 and -3 in 1884 on those dates, were followed by record highs of 59F on 22nd (later broken) and 64F on 23rd (also later broken). It then stayed very mild through January 1876 after what had been persistent record cold in late November and parts of December 1875. Similar flips occurred from Sept 1947 and 1963 (cold) to Oct 1947 and 1963 (very warm) but differences between records are more widely separated than we are tracking in this post (both Octobers were quite warm by the 10th but set most of their records later, both Septembers had several record lows near the end and 1947 also set a record low on October 1st). Another month to month transition worth noting without any adjacent records would be Jan-Feb 1984 (cold to very mild, then back to cold in March). The somewhat slower transition from record warmth in March-early April 1945 to variable then very cold at end of May into early June was also a full tour of the anomaly spectrum. 

A near record high of 98F on Aug 2, 1975 and 96F on Aug 3rd and a record high minimum of 78F on the third were quickly followed by a record low max of 64F on Aug 7th (lowest minimum with that only 60F). Aug 10, 1979 (95F) while not that close to a record the warmest day of that year was followed within two days by a very cool day (64F, 57F). Earlier in the record, Aug 7 1931 (99F, not a record) was followed on the 11th by a record low max of 68F.

There may have been other short transitions that involved valid records at the time but not valid now.

A record high of 98F on July 8, 1890 (surpassed in 1993) was followed within two days by a record low of 55F (max 70F not a record after 1917) on July 10, 1890.

June 29-30 1919 had record lows of 52F and 53F (still valid), July 3rd (97F, not a record in 1919) July 4th (99F a record to 1949) and July 5th (98F a record to 1999) made for a very fast transition. 

Oct 12 1886 (78F) was a record at the time broken in 1928, and 33F on 17th five days later still is a record. 76F on Oct 11th 1887 was also a temporary record and was followed in just two days by the still-valid but tied record low max of 49F. Also similar, 70F on Nov 4, 1903 later beaten out as a record was followed within three days by the still valid low maximum 41F (7th). In the eventually record cold November of 1880, a record high of 68F on 11th since broken, was followed by record cold as soon as the 19th (record low max 31F) and it stayed record cold for most of the following week. In 1951, record mild weather Dec 8-9 (the surviving records are high minima) was followed by near-record cold within ten days (64F 7th and 8th, 8F and 9F 17th, 18th).

July 16 1926 has the record low of 56F, July 21 1926 held the record high (100F) until beaten in 1930 (102F). In 1930 the record low was 57F on July 15th but the 1930 high of 102F is no longer a record either (1977 104F). Another fast transition in the summer of 1930 was from record 96F on Aug 5th to record low 55F on Aug 13th, but the record high was later broken by 1944 (101F).

Mar 11, 1967 had a (then) record high of 72F followed by a record low min of 8F on the 19th (a record low max of 20F on the 18th also), and it was back up to a record high of 81F on April 2nd. Another example is from a low max record still valid 41F Apr 15, 1885 to a high of 81F on Apr 22, a record broken in 1962 (which itself almost duplicated the change with a high of only 45F on the 15th). A shorter transition followed with a record of 89F on Apr 28, 1962 (since broken) followed by the date low max of 45F on May 2nd. (four days) By May 19, 1962 the monthly maximum of 99F was recorded, following another low max on May 8th of 49F.

June 20 1893 (95F) has been overtaken by 98F in 1923, but at the time went from record high to low max and min (63F, 56F, June 26) in six days with another record low 54F on the 28th. 

May 2-3 1913 had record highs of 89F later beaten in recent years, and a still valid record low of 36F on May 11th. May 5 1919 had a record high of 88F later edged out, followed by a record low max of 48F on the 10th. 

May 10, 1895 had a high of 90F, one deg short of the current record, and a low minimum of 39F on May 13th (still valid). That was followed by record highs on May 31 and June 1 (96F) which had been preceded by more temporary records on May 29 and 30. 

May 23 1902 (86F) was at that time a record high, and 43F on May 29 1902 is still the record low. This couplet is no longer valid as the record for May 23 has increased to 94 (1964) but in that year the temperature on May 29 was only 49F (a larger overall drop). May 24 1884 had a record high of 86F (since overtaken) and a still-valid record high min (70F) followed by record low max and min on the 29th (51, 43) and another record low on the 30th (42F). 

The record low of 55F for July 4 (1986) was followed by two days at 98F on 6th and 7th, both tied or set records that would fall in 1999 and 2010.

Records of 92F, 93F Sep 9-10 1895 (since broken) were followed by a near-record low max of 62F on the 12th, quite a fast drop (but the record even then was 60F (1873).

So in other words there are numerous occasions when the temperature flipped from one extreme to the other within a week. This is not a comprehensive list when it comes to the 9 to 15 day range, I left out several less spectacular but valid cases in that time range. I tried to find anything shorter than eight days but would need to validate as the work was done from color coded entries in max and min logs in my research file. 

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13 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Agree. I personally hope for a cooler summer, but met summer just started. Can’t September even have our hottest temperature?

Yes, for NYC, September had the hottest day in 1953 (2nd 102F), 1881 (7th 101F), 1929 (3rd, 99F), 1983 (11th, 99F), 1931 (11th, 99F, tied with 7th Aug), 1895 (23rd 97F), 2015 (8th 97F), 1921 (3rd 96F), 1932 (2nd 96F), 1914 (22nd 95F, tied with 27th May), 1915 (9th, 94F), 1897 (10th 93F tied with 6th July), 1970 (22nd 94F), 2014 (2nd 92F), also 1927 (15th 92F tied with four other days all in July, and it was also 90F on Oct 2nd 1927), and 1884 (91F 8th and 9th tied with 21st June and 20th Aug). 

So that was 16 of 153 years so far with at least a tie of the summer maximum in September. I listed them in order of their temperatures. The latest date was the 23rd in 1895, that year had a four-day heat wave May 31 to June 3 with 96F highs. This year NYC hit 93F on May 31, the  second hottest reading since that record value from 1895 was tied in 1939. It was 94F in 1987 and that year's eventual maximum was 97F from the previous day (May 30th). 

 

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  75degs.(65/84) or +1.

Month to date is  70.4[-0.2].       Should be near 71.6[Near Normal] by the  29th.

Reached 82 here yesterday.

Today: 75-80, wind variable, increasing  clouds, rain by 8pm, 65 tomorrow AM.

67*(53%RH) here at 7am.      70* at 8am.        74* at Noon.       Reached 76* at 2pm.      69* at 8pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be increasingly cloudy somewhat cooler than normal. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 82°

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be unreasonably cool.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 81.4°; 15-Year: 81.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 83.7°; 15-Year: 83.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.2°

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The most amazing story of this summer so far is the near absolute absence of high dew points. This just doesn't feel like our usual summers so far. Granted there is a long way to go, but so far this season just 'feels' different. 

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