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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"real" climate happens in the relativity of the numbers though...  And this unrelenting +PNAP ( not "PNA" ... I mean, 'amplified version of the Perennial North American Pattern') basal state, ...in the relative sense, gets balanced by no winter -

;)

I may have to just move to Moose up

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11 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Gonna be cold up that way for awhile.  I wouldn't want to be in SE Canada right now.  Even worse there.

814temp.new.gif

:clown:

below normal in July does not mean cold 

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I don't actually care to experience heat, locally...  Just for the record.  Patience grinds at 93/73 if that lastS more than a couple days...etc.   

I'm just noting idiosyncrasies both subtle and/or gross, trends in the modeling vs and/or in support of verification tendencies.  That, and as I have admitted in the past, I do carry a fascination for 'big heat synoptics' but... you know, that's fine.  It's no hypocrisy.  No nuclear physicist wants to spend time inside the actual tokamak reactor core - they want to observe it for the wonder of extremes.  It's like that.  

I think it is interesting that the summer has evolved ...or 'de'-evolved, into a kind of a winter configuration.  Yet, while AT summer-time heights - or even higher, actually.  Recent ridge projection have heights nearing 605 DM in these nodes that pulse diurnally out there.  I put up the annotation yesterday but it's apropos .. this is highly unusual. 

image.png.6cd69396f46cd82c2490f68629003515.png  

This may seem sort of innocuous or in-germane but that is the 594 contour with 50+ knot jet winds blowing along it in a trough ( which means positive vorticity) ... heights that normally are at the cores of ridge nodes over f'um India!

Separate discussion.. it's pretty fantastic.  I remember back in the 1980s I developed a pretty coherent impression of summertime ridges - 588 was the metric.  Now... ?  594 seems to be the normal ridgy heat balloon depth ..with these smatterings of 600+ Venetian bombs on the charts.    That's a another charm of CC...but whatever.

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How many record high temps were actually broken last June?   I wonder how the month on whole compared historically... Could have been a historically hot month packed into the low temps, too.  

Can't speak to other areas, but last June was 4.1° AN, quite respectable for a met summer month.  The 92 on 6/28 was one degree below the hottest here in the woods, 24 yr POR, and that day's mean of 80 is our hottest.  Previous record was 79.5 on 7/3/02.

This month will finish very close to 1.0° BN, with a rain deficit of about 1.6".  Very nice month overall though the garden wished for about 2" more RA - lots of CoC days and one near-severe TS with that extremely rare (for here) phenomenon of bouncy things falling.

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5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Staggering dews on Saturday, gonna be a hot one

Front moves through during the day. Fri night will be a miserable one after the hot day and dews continue to advect in. 

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29 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Love this hot summer wx!

Ha...

You know, I actually think you're an okay person.  We need guys/girls like you around to offset the coherent winter biased group this bastion of Internet bus-stoppers loiters on with in din and song.   Lol -

But please, for the love of god, stop.  When the numbers do not back the sentiment, it loses any presumptive value.   It's sort of worse than unappealing. It looks dumber.   I mean, you kinda just get ignored after awhile. 

If one wants to be the best subversive troll they can be, the BEST way to do it is to strategize like Sheev Palpatine (Darth Sidious) did in that earlier Star Wars saga .... He inured himself to the Jedi order first, spanning those earlier ...hard-to-watch ridiculous horse character movies... Then, when the order's guard was inCREdibly too stupid to see it coming considering their Jedi foresight ... he executed the brilliantly titled operation 66 (because I guess "666" was too on the nose)   

So yeah...the theme had logic problems and ruined those earlier movies that wasted some state of the art CGI.   Point being ... your wearing your carpet out there by statements that aren't selectively choosing for the right time to exact the most attack value... LOL

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cool start in the rad spots and dews won’t be too bad. It’ll just be damn hot during peak heating. 

I'm a little suspect of it all... It'll probably be 94.7 fine ..but, when that happens with the preset holding onto the previous air mass by luck of nocturnal timing, sometimes in the past we end up with morning ceiling issues due to make-shit warm advection riding over.   The models don't really "create" those kind of permutations so well. 

Might seem like a bit of a reach, but if we end up more partly sunny haunting edges off the high, I've seen that sort of thing in the past.  We need to sacrifice the day...then at night stays elevated.  Then, have that boundary on Saturday come in at 8 pm ... that's your sack-sticker day.

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha...

You know, I actually think you're an okay person.  We need guys/girls like you around to offset the coherent winter biased group this bastion of Internet bus-stoppers loiters on with in din and song.   Lol -

But please, for the love of god, stop.  When the numbers do not back the sentiment, it loses any presumptive value.   It's sort of worse than unappealing. It looks dumber.   I mean, you kinda just get ignored after awhile. 

If one wants to be the best subversive troll they can be, the BEST way to do it is to strategize like Sheev Palpatine (Darth Sidious) did in that earlier Star Wars saga .... He inured himself to the Jedi order first, spanning those earlier ...hard-to-watch ridiculous horse character movies... Then, when the order's guard was inCREdibly too stupid to see it coming considering their Jedi foresight ... he executed the brilliantly titled operation 66 (because I guess "666" was too on the nose)   

So yeah...the theme had logic problems and ruined those earlier movies that wasted some state of the art CGI.   Point being ... your wearing your carpet out there by statements that aren't selectively choosing for the right time to exact the most attack value... LOL

90+ degrees is not hot to you...got it

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Boundary comes through early up here, it’s a tomorrow afternoon/evening heat and muggy night before early AM FROPA.

This summer so far is characterized by brief single afternoons of heat, then days of 70s over 50s.

As of 348 AM EDT Thursday...From Monday night through mid-week there remains a large spread in guidance in the evolution and strength of an upper ridge over the central CONUS and any shortwave energy that roles over into the Northeast. There`s little to hang your hat on leaning towards any one solution so have continued to highlight low chances for showers at this time. In general, the Northeast does look to remain under cyclonic flow though, favoring slightly below normal temperatures.

 

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This summer so far is characterized by brief single afternoons of heat, then days of 70s over 50s.

 

It's tough to keep any heat sustained in NNE with those consistent cold anomalies in S QB. One moose fart and you flip the flow out of the north and start advecting in lower dews and then you guys get the clouds and upslope cooling on top of it.

If we keep this up through the first 10-15 days of July it'll start to feel like the summers from our younger days.

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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

90+ degrees is not hot to you...got it

That's hot - sure..I've said so countless times, explicit and implicitly ...

You said, "Love this hot summer wx! "

You said that - "this" is 77 F right now. 

Sorry if logic interferes with your narrative but I'm just responding to what came from you

 

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's hot - sure..I've said so countless times, explicit and implicitly ...

You said, "Love this hot summer wx! "

You said that - "this" is 77 F right now. 

Sorry if logic interferes with your narrative but I'm just responding to what came from you

 

just had a day in the U80's to 90's regionwide, in fact HFD had back-to-back 90+

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10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

just had a day in the U80's to 90's regionwide, in fact HFD had back-to-back 90+

Yeah... but the climo sites all but reflect 'N/S' bias measures for the month, because they are less than .5 + or -

So it has not actually been worthy of the 'love this 90s' sentiment if based upon that metric ...  Subjectively?  you'll find that no one lucid within the consideration believes otherwise.    

Now, it may just be semantics but I suspect you choose your words that way, deliberately.   Just sayn'

Look, I don't care - you can be a jive ass turkey and spin your intent as somethin' else, all you want.  Typically I don't pay attention to the antics and just like to see substance that is more coherently unbiased.   That said, I was trying also be humorously droll in that - which was vroom! right over the heads I guess...

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It's tough to keep any heat sustained in NNE with those consistent cold anomalies in S QB. One moose fart and you flip the flow out of the north and start advecting in lower dews and then you guys get the clouds and upslope cooling on top of it.

If we keep this up through the first 10-15 days of July it'll start to feel like the summers from our younger days.

Yeah BTV is -0.7 for June which for them is almost unbelievable.  The new 30-year climo numbers must be helping… as that airport always had a baseline like +2.

I think BTV is like -2 on maxes and normal on mins or just above.  But shows the daytimes have been cooler than normal when people are out and about.

Its been a while since BTV has had a summer month come in below normal.  Just above normal precip too... "cooler and wetter" relative to average.  Fits with NW flow climatology.

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