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48 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

this storm will be  a bust for the city rain totals will be less that was predicted during the 6 pm news

Still have quite a ways to go with this, at least 12 more hours. HRRR still has the rain going and mod-heavy at that around noon-1pm. Rain totals over the city appear to be 0.7" or so, with the rain expected most of us from I-80 S should be over 2" by the end. 

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29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, so a higher chance of 100 in Seattle than in NYC again this summer lol?

 

Maybe not Seattle but probably somewhere north of our latitude. We're becoming much more Carolina like in the summers due to the distorted north ridge. Temps there are regularly in the mid 90s with oppressive humidity. Near the center of the ridge where westerly flow can be sustained is where the over 100 heat would be. 

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35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but at least the rain will end by Sunday morning so no more of that 5 days of rain nonsense some were talking about

 

If the sun can come out we'll be good for mid 60s most likely, but the mid 70s and higher will have to wait until we can start a westerly flow. NE wind won't allow it to get higher than mid 60s here and likely mostly cloudy/periods of low clouds. 

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20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe not Seattle but probably somewhere north of our latitude. We're becoming much more Carolina like in the summers due to the distorted north ridge. Temps there are regularly in the mid 90s with oppressive humidity. Near the center of the ridge where westerly flow can be sustained is where the over 100 heat would be. 

and I see the allergy season lasts much longer now.  I got some breaks from that when we had that dry air come in after the late April storm.  I'm wondering if the same thing will happen after this storm is out of the area?

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the sun can come out we'll be good for mid 60s most likely, but the mid 70s and higher will have to wait until we can start a westerly flow. NE wind won't allow it to get higher than mid 60s here and likely mostly cloudy/periods of low clouds. 

looks like cloudy periods and windy at least through Monday.  The annoying part is that the clearing line is so close-- looks like Western NJ will be clear at least on Monday?  Hopefully we'll be out of the clouds by Tuesday and the wind will be gone by then.

 

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27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still have quite a ways to go with this, at least 12 more hours. HRRR still has the rain going and mod-heavy at that around noon-1pm. Rain totals over the city appear to be 0.7" or so, with the rain expected most of us from I-80 S should be over 2" by the end. 

Would have been such a nice profile for an HECS if this was February lol

Long duration, high winds and heavy snow.  24-30 inches easily.  Maybe a PD2 type storm or even Jan 2016?

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Would have been such a nice profile for a HECS if this was February lol

Long duration, high winds and heavy snow.  24-30 inches easily.  Maybe a PD2 type storm?

 

Yep, this would be a NYC blockbuster if it could've been a few months ago. We already have the mid-storm bust proclamations. :lol: 

This is how the biggest snowstorms in NYC happen-massive wall of moisture that we're on the right side of and winning the Russian Roulette game vs. sharp confluence and slow moving. This will be a 24 hour rain event and great for the water table. We need to add that up for the inevitable LI dry summer period. 

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22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, this would be a NYC blockbuster if it could've been a few months ago. We already have the mid-storm bust proclamations. :lol: 

This is how the biggest snowstorms in NYC happen-massive wall of moisture that we're on the right side of and winning the Russian Roulette game vs. sharp confluence and slow moving. This will be a 24 hour rain event and great for the water table. We need to add that up for the inevitable LI dry summer period. 

Maybe this is a good sign for next winter.  Need to see how the following winter goes after we have a storm like this in springtime the previous year.

I bet people were saying similar things after the May 1977 storm lol.  Was that a similar storm to this one?  And the winter that happened after that was wonderful-- of course it was a second year weak el nino so that might have had something to do with it.

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(50/71) or about Normal.

Reached 62 here early yesterday-then in mid 50's in PM.

Today: 52 early, then dropping to mid 40's, wind n.e. and gusty to 30+, rain at any time till tomorrow AM with T in low 40's. by then.

AN (beating 72*)by the 12th. for sure---but pick your own T's.      80<-->93 by the 20th.

52*(91%RH) here at 7am.      53* at 9am.       50* at Noon.        47* at 7pm. 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be rainy, windy, and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 53°

Tomorrow will be unseasonably cool, but a few degrees warmer.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 69.2°; 15-Year: 70.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.0°; 15-Year: 72.6°

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Next week at this time the GFS has it at 85degs.>>>  750 miles to our north!!! with an 850mb T of 22*C there.      Low 60's here at the same time.          The GFS could be headed for Ward 5 and a regiment of intravenous thorazine.     Wild stuff.

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2 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning all. Ref NOAA/NWS at Central Park. 07:51, 50 degrees and .92 inches of rain recorded. Presently  moderate rain falling on the postage stamp. Stay well and dry, as always ….

I am assuming the rain gauge at Central Park is in the same area as the temperature gauge. If so I'm glad at least some sun must get thru, on the other hand, if the growth continues they will have to trim it or not get accurate rain readings.

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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Back to moderate rain. May still hit 2" all said and done

Yeah looking at radar, it appears that we're gonna have a few waves of moderate rain today. Should give us the .50 or so that we need to hit 2".

 

Miserable out there ..... looking forward to the much warmer weather coming for mid to late week.

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Would have been such a nice profile for an HECS if this was February lol

Long duration, high winds and heavy snow.  24-30 inches easily.  Maybe a PD2 type storm or even Jan 2016?

 

There are actually indications of snow aloft currently on radar over the Poconos.  Temps in the upper 30s will keep that from making it to the surface.

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4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

There are actually indications of snow aloft currently on radar over the Poconos.  Temps in the upper 30s will keep that from making it to the surface.

Too bad there aren’t any higher mountains at our latitude. The Catskills have lots of peaks over 3,000 and a couple 4,000 that would definitely be snow. 

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