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May 2022


bluewave
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HRRR is showing some nice storms, and 12z RGEM looks pretty active too. Hoping to see a good storm later today.

 

As for tomorrow, it looks as if the best chance of showers/storms is early to mid afternoon. Looking better late day, which is good news for evening cookouts. Great weather sunday and monday. A good holiday weekend overall.

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Unusual amount of amplitude to our blocking and MJO waves heading into early June. So we get a few days in the 90s followed by back door cold fronts with high pressure building into New England. Record SE Canada block for May has been pumping the high pressure over New England.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Eastern Maryland Southern and western New Jersey Southeastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms will spread northeastward through the afternoon across southeast Pennsylvania into eastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with bowing segments, though a tornado or two may also occur with embedded circulations in the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Allentown PA to 55 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associate

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3 hours ago, Eduardo said:

More sun and warmth than I expected today here in the City.  Not sure if that means anything regarding the severe potential later on.  Got my eyes peeled for a @forkyfork post.  :)

was at the beach. these ne moving lines tend to do well for nj/nyc and today was another example

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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers and thundershowers. Temperatures will reach the middle or upper 70s across the region. Some locations could again approach or reach 80°.

Following a seasonably warm weekend, much warmer air will move into the region early next week.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

Galveston saw the temperature reach 93° today. That broke the daily record of 90°, which was set in 1922. Galveston has now had 6 90° or above days this month. The old May record of 4 days was set in 2011. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.3° to 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +3.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today.

On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.185 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.463 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal).

 

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