winterwx21 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Yeah quite a few gusts in the 30s with this storm. Saw some baby pea sized hail too. Very heavy rain again and some lightning. The 4th storm here in a 24 hour period, and now over 2 inches of rain for the period. Pretty impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like the main focus is a bit further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Main action just missed me by a few miles. Some wind and light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Really tropical like torrential downpours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Incredibly heavy rain and impressive lightning. No rotation anywhere, kinda shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Pea sized hail now. My poor veggie garden…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Pea sized hail now. My poor veggie garden….Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Incredibly heavy rain and impressive lightning. No rotation anywhere, kinda shocked. On radar, it looks like the entire system is rotating with everything staying in placeSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 gusty winds and heavy downpour. thunder in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Hail on the UWS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Quick scare: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Some very small hail in Larchmont, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Thundershower moving thru here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Thunder here. My mom told me it absolutely poured in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Thunder here. My mom told me it absolutely poured in Long Beach. yup, it's clearing over here now. It lasted for about 20 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Pretty tame storm, maybe a gust to 25 mph with a few rumbles of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2022 Author Share Posted May 28, 2022 Tuesday looks like it could be the 3rd 95° day of the season so far. Very warm WNW flow ahead of the backdoor. Quite a difference between our area and New Hampshire. JFK could beat the record high of 92° set in 1988. Data for May 31 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1988-05-31 92 65 0.00 0.0 0 1991-05-31 91 69 1.08 0.0 0 1986-05-31 91 69 0.01 0.0 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 two day total of 2.5" in springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Port Jefferson as storms approach. Buddy on other side about to take ferry in Bridgeport reported hail 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Parts of Rockland are underwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Heavy quick storm here with good wind and vivid lightning-ending now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Some photos: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and seasonably warm. Much warmer air will move into the region for Monday and Tuesday before another cold front breaks the short warm spell. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward in the Middle Atlantic region through the middle of next week. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 82.7°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +13.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.360 today. On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.805 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.187 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will be partly sunny and seasonably warm. Much warmer air will move into the region for Monday and Tuesday before another cold front breaks the short warm spell. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward in the Middle Atlantic region through the middle of next week. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 82.7°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +13.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.360 today. On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.805 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.187 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal). Don - the SOI has been way above average between moderately strong and extremely above average for seemingly weeks now. I presume this despite MJO/ CCKW crossing the pacific - nonetheless it is reinforcing a La Niña pattern . Can this lend confidence to at least next 4 months ? even if things suddenly changed - isn’t this La Niña pattern baked into future at this point ? i am not sure but presume we are safe with La Nina styled pattern for summer at this point . mot sure where we stand statistically at this point although this is quite anonymous with a third year La Niña . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2022 Author Share Posted May 28, 2022 The +SOI gave us the -PNA and the La Niña contributed to the record ridge over SE Canada. But we got a more amplified version of the typical May La Niña background state. Rare combination of unusually cold spring La Niña SSTs, +SOI, and negative IOD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 29, 2022 Share Posted May 29, 2022 2 hours ago, bkviking said: Don - the SOI has been way above average between moderately strong and extremely above average for seemingly weeks now. I presume this despite MJO/ CCKW crossing the pacific - nonetheless it is reinforcing a La Niña pattern . Can this lend confidence to at least next 4 months ? even if things suddenly changed - isn’t this La Niña pattern baked into future at this point ? i am not sure but presume we are safe with La Nina styled pattern for summer at this point . mot sure where we stand statistically at this point although this is quite anonymous with a third year La Niña . The odds increasingly favor a persistent La Niña. We’ll probably see a 3rd consecutive La Niña winter. By mid-summer, the guidance will be in a range where one can have good confidence in the forecast outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 29, 2022 Share Posted May 29, 2022 Picked up 0.30" of rain for the day. Two day total 0.73" Current temp 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted May 29, 2022 Share Posted May 29, 2022 11 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Really tropical like torrential downpours here. A little over 2 inches in since last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 29, 2022 Share Posted May 29, 2022 The last 3 days of May are averaging 78degs.(66/90) or +10. Month to date is 63.0[+0.2]. May should end at 64.4[+1.2]. Reached 76 here yesterday. Today: 73-80, wind direction variable, m. sunny, 66 tomorrow AM. EURO is coolish/wet after Tuesday. CMC is dry with normal T's. Next T outburst on the GFS is June 09/10. For Tues the GFS is 97, the remaining models and NBM are 92-94. 64*(78%RH) here at 7am. 69* at Noon. 71* at 3pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 29, 2022 Author Share Posted May 29, 2022 Tuesday could feature a very impressive temperature drop especially east of the Hudson. Near record highs in the 90s could drop sharply at night. It will all depend on how fast and far west the backdoor makes it before stalling out. It may come down to nowcast time for the higher resolution models. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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