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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thank God it’s not winter. :lol: 

you beat me to it. wouldb a melt fest in here. 

Forecasts of 4-6" down here as of yesterday morning, only to wake up to overcast skies and a light dusting. Meanwhile, Kevin touting south of pike WWAs and mets throwing caution flags due to dry air

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26 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

you beat me to it. wouldb a melt fest in here. 

Forecasts of 4-6" down here as of yesterday morning, only to wake up to overcast skies and a light dusting. Meanwhile, Kevin touting south of pike WWAs and mets throwing caution flags due to dry air

There probably would have been a mid level band farther north in a setup like this during cold season 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Awful day for May 7th

Pretty bad but it could be worse with a complete washout. We’ll just have to bundle up later and pretend it’s the best spring of our lives today. Then it get coc-y early in the week with the offshore low’s east winds before the humid humpers have a few days to lick each others swamp butts.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro looks a little more dicey at that time as the ULL unravels and sends moisture north. However dews come too.

That models is at minimum ... figuratively inventing reasons to eat away at the temperatures at the end of the week. 

~120 hour oblong U/A structure, I bet money, is an artificial construct of whatever bs they're doing for controls in the machinery of the Euro. 

If it's going to all turn out tepidly warm instead of mid 80s, so be it... but the atmosphere has to realize a lot of nuances the Euro appears to spontaneously inject into the synoptics out there.  Seldom when a model gets cute D5-7 do the dailies go on to reflect those details.  It seems like a scenario where the 4-D 'noise' smoothing isn't working too well.  Maybe because the ridge is top heavy and the whole domain is inverted - somehow that turns that off.  

 

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A thinning tendency is eroding S through the denser canopy.  Showed up at the region doorstep right around 12z ..and looping sat since, you can see it eroding SW through N-E zones.  There's still 300 mb milk and mare noodles stringing out over top, but you can see the 700 to 500 mb layer is calving backward - probably that dry air. Models did well to time that. 

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15 hours ago, Saguaro said:

Wow that looks like 10-day QPF maps here most of the time. The last time I can remember a rain-free stretch that long in Maine was the omega block "high over low" situation that lasted a good chunk of April back in 2013. Near the end of it, with all the dirt roads around dust clouds were being kicked up like the Dukes of Hazzard. Certainly not the typical April expectation, it was a welcomed respite.

I can say that the heat which is building out here this go around is the highest of the season thus far. We've hit 97 today and expecting the first 100 of the year tomorrow. GFS 850 temps over ME next week show some rare 18-19Cs. Tough to get those into ME even in summer.

Good conditions to translate that to 2m warmth, too - low dews, early August sun angle, trees <5% leaf-out (a guess for Thurs-Fri; <1% currently).  That last has 2 effects, very little transpirational moisture to be heated and sun beating on the leaf litter to add warmth from below.  We hit 89 on 5/2/2001 (with zero leaf-out, as pack lasted thru 4/23); can we sniff 90 next week?

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52 here with occasional breeze but the winds slackening off in the last couple of hours ..albeit slowly.  

Mowed the lawn, then took to clean up ... raking/thatching, minor landscaping and so forth.  Even at 52 was beading sweat at times.   It's really the perfect temperature for doing that kind of yard toil - even 70 with sun would be sack sticking, eye stinging, back soup with probably weed toxin welts itching shins and forearms like a pox festival...    It's dry and no high sun.   Perfect for doing that kind of work.   you should get out there -

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