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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unlikely …

bearing in mind that nighttime lows have owned the ballast of positive anomalies in recent decadal era, that is physically caused by elevated ambient dew points - which is a concomitant aspect of CC … ( warming results in increased evaporation —> elevating WV, predicted by climate models and observably bearing out )

Heh. It’s analogous to institutional humidity. Lol. It’s built in, in other words and quite likely that miasma is the new paradigm.

Unless we cap frequently … in which yeah … it may not rain much but the heat over 75 dps’ll be relentless. Not sure that kind of dry folks have in mind?

Dont think it’ll be a Kansas summer tho. 

We do A/C up here much more than we used to a decade ago, especially two decades ago when I first moved to N.VT.  It doesn't cool off at night as much as it used to.  That is the real A/C barometer in my opinion.  The nighttime cooling.  Open windows and sliding doors cooling things off nicely are the hallmarks of NNE mountain valley summers.  If it doesn't radiate though, the populous needs A/C.  That increase in temps overnight/during low diurnal solar cycle, has really pushed many of us to install A/C where it wasn't previously needed.

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wish AOUEDIT were wrong. We’ve been stuck in neutral since March. Everytime we have a great day, like tomorrow, we get punched in the gut the following day. Just can’t sustain true spring at all. Eventually though climo punches back and it’s HHH but we lose out with the quick transition. 

Sunday was awesome but this week has been complete meh' so far.  I've had .60" of rain the past 48hours and had the wood stove going Monday night.  Perhaps paradise waits somewhere on a hill in Tolland CT but this spring has been mediocre here.

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Pretty miserable day. High of 49F with murk and rain. This spring has definitely been cooler overall vs. last year. First 70F+ last year was March 26...still waiting this year. Heat hasn't been turned off yet but hopefully we can do that starting later next week.

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13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Saturday starting to get that soaker vibe 

I’m hoping all Mother's Day weekend gets claimed … then, Mem Day 4th of July and Labor Day …

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well that was a god awful euro run 9 days of rain and clouds from tomorrows storm. 

GFS wasn't much better ( 00z)...  

I've been around a lot of years and have suffered these spring/west Atl cut-offs in varying forms and degrees.  They due tend to (unfortunately) evolve when the PNA flips negative, and the westerlies abruptly pull out.   That much is consistent with climatology.. But, usually the resulting circulation is deeper than 1010 mb.  This is only 1010 mb, yet it takes proxy on the lower troposhere from Main to Florida like that?  that's unusual.  1010 located off the lower MA does not typically send long swell and gust winds into Logan. 

That is the oddity of that 00z outlook.  I'd say I am inclined to go with the GGEM for it's subdued, less pervasively scaling ...which seems more consistent with a system that doesn't really have the physical manifold to even drill much of a low to the surface...etc, 'cept that that model sucks donkey ballz.   So the one model that seems more sensible is the least useful for that range - great.   But the Euro and GFS don't have low much deeper than 1010 either - it's just odd that they menace a E trade component that's almost 1000 naut miles of latitude coming into the EC. 

 

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I like the marginal snow sounding over the interior on the NAM for early Sunday morning. Prob at least some pingers in there with that super cold layer near 900.

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As an aside, ... air mass supporting snow May 20th on the 06z GFS... no problem - right?   4th warmest spring in global history - still snowing in New England a mere month before the Solstice.  Makes perfect sense.   :wacko2:   

Something I've noticed for years...how it seems NASA's state of the climate publications since the year 2000, ~ 2/3rds of the months ( guesstimate) have a relative bottom out of temperatures if not over New England ... within distance of this region.  There's something about how CC is driving the Pacific relay over N/A ... causing the continental folding - like a planetary scaled Kelvin Hemholtz wave.  Stronger westerlies lagging later in the years... is going to go N due to corriolis as it encounters the western N/A topographic barrier...  After which, the coupling at large scale drives exaggerated compensating mass flow SE into SE Canada. It may not represent on a daily chart - per se ... But it's like an 'implied' systemic vector forcing that expresses sort of insidiously.  We end up above normal here, but not as much as other areas of the world per-annum. 

 

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06z GFS is more sensible with that thing.  

I think the transition time ... Sunday through next Tues/Wed is too conserved by prior runs.  They are/were exaggerating the momentum that ends up in that thing - or just plain exaggerating it's spatial dimension. It lacks too much baroclinic gradients going in,  and subsequently is normalizing after the fact. It's probably not as capable as the 00z versions were at menacing an impact so pervasively.  

It's a tedious difference, but one with huge ramifications for sensible weather: It's either fair and a warming trend vs complete rectal spray out of an exploding whale corpse.  One or the other ... hard difference.  Can't turn the flow SE at this time of year for any reason and ever have any other outcome than justifying leaving this area of the country out of frustration.   

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Stowe to Tamarack ftw next week? A true Tamarack torch.

Looking forward to some top 10 spring wx midweek, though it doesn't meet my def of "torch" - average for this coming Wednesday is 63/38 and forecast (modified for my microsite) is about 72/42.  Need 10°+ AN for a May torch.  See 2001, when 5/3,4 had 20-21° AN.

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42 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Looking forward to some top 10 spring wx midweek, though it doesn't meet my def of "torch" - average for this coming Wednesday is 63/38 and forecast (modified for my microsite) is about 72/42.  Need 10°+ AN for a May torch.  See 2001, when 5/3,4 had 20-21° AN.

You might do 80+ there, especially later in the week. I'll be happy to chop wood, pull weeds, whatever you need so I can enjoy the weather. :lol: 

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Two schools on that ...

1 ... The NAM is squarely in the 60 hour window for NW bias with coastals.   There are other guidance still S with rain on Saturday, enough to wonder if 06z/12z were just bias runs.

2 ... The climate of this spring has presented a leitmotif in verifying miserable ... relative to all possibilities in play that could/would have allowed for something better.  The verification found the worse weather relative to the input.  A persistence I am not sure won't just repeat here...  Not a very scientific approach - no. But, it's hard to knock consistency.

 

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23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A little worried about a freeze here Monday morning. Otherwise it looks like a nice week up here. Maybe we can even squeak out some breaks Sun afternoon.

I expect frost or freeze both Saturday and Sunday mornings, maybe Monday as well.  Fortunately, the more vulnerable trees are barely awake externally.  Oak buds are elongated but no green in sight, and ash/basswood have barely done anything.  No 1999 or 2010 killing freeze this year unless we get mid 20s after May 20. 

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs with a brutal run thru the 20th with cutoff galore. Some decent days mixed in but man, we can’t get out. 

Just can't catch a break this spring.

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