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April 2022


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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy with rain. Most of the rain will fall during the morning hours. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 59°

Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 58.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 59.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.5°

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The next 8 days are averaging 55degs.(47/62) or +4.

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today: 48-51, wind e. and breezy briefly, rain ending in early PM, cloudy, 45 by tomorrow AM.

April 12-16, 5 days, averaging 66(56/76) or +13.

48*(99%RH) here at 7am.       55* at 5pm.

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The storm system for tomorrow looks more impressive than the one that we are getting today. A morning warm front with convection. This is followed by the area getting warm sectored with a nice pocket of MUCAPE. Both the mesos and Euro have heavy convection. It will be interesting to see if we can break the inversion like we did last week for some stronger winds and perhaps an isolated spin up.
 

Weaker storm for today 

670108C6-B455-4D8A-A057-B5157C16F9C4.thumb.png.0b5b65a421724d0f64a217d3dd8d66dd.png

 

Heavy elevated convection on Thursday

D01E337D-B08A-4CDA-986C-BBB442AC2866.thumb.png.19b30787b353e41179e70bb219afa930.pngC2DAB5E7-06BD-49FC-87BC-A0D6224B468D.thumb.png.55e5c0264ebc57805e426b58ba8a44da.png

 

 


 

 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Would have been a nice snow storm mid winter. Nothing historic but a solid warning event. 

Not even. It would be a nice event but we’d be mad that the northern edge where we are is drying up and the heavy snow would be in S NJ. For liquid most of us in NYC/LI are about half an inch which would be maybe 6” or so with ratios. N of the city practically nothing. S NJ would be way better since ACY has nearly 2” from this. This storm fits the progressive winter pattern where we get a squashed fast mover. 

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22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not even. It would be a nice event but we’d be mad that the northern edge where we are is drying up and the heavy snow would be in S NJ. For liquid most of us in NYC/LI are about half an inch which would be maybe 6” or so with ratios. N of the city practically nothing. S NJ would be way better since ACY has nearly 2” from this. This storm fits the progressive winter pattern where we get a squashed fast mover. 

Same ol winter pattern.   Only had about .35 here and it's ending now

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The storm system for tomorrow looks more impressive than the one that we are getting today. A morning warm front with convection. This is followed by the area getting warm sectored with a nice pocket of MUCAPE. Both the mesos and Euro have heavy convection. It will be interesting to see if we can break the inversion like we did last week for some stronger winds and perhaps an isolated spin up.

Weaker storm for today 

Heavy elevated convection on Thursday

 

impressive moisture feed from the tropical atlantic and gulf tomorrow

namconus_mslp_pwata_eus_31.png

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

impressive moisture feed from the tropical atlantic and gulf tomorrow

 

Unusually strong closed low to our west from tomorrow into the weekend with all the blocking. 
 

EBFEFF81-F39A-4ADE-BF30-7BAD19A79D83.png.0de1543a06e23ff6403c31ee542fd65b.png

 

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Drizzle is likely overnight before additional steady rain arrives tomorrow. The rain could fall moderately to heavily at times tomorrow afternoon. A shower or two is possible on Friday.

Overall, the week will see mainly near to somewhat below normal temperatures. There are growing hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could move into the region next week for several days.

It is likely that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +31.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.640 today.

On April 4 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.343 (RMM). The April 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.356 (RMM).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Rain will develop and it could fall moderately to perhaps heavily this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 56°

Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 59.1°; 15-Year: 59.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 61.9°

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The next 8 days are averaging 55degs.(47/62) or +3.

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today: T steady near 47.     Rain in earnest by 2pm. to 3am. Friday, wind e. and breezy.     Elevated convective TS action?, 47 tomorrow AM.

Warmup next week looks more muted now, but at least dry till next Friday, less some renegrade showers on the weekend.

49*(80%RH) here at 7am.{was 53 at midnight}.     48* at 9am.      49* at 10 am{FOG<0.5mi.}.   

 

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Looks like a brief taste of spring for several days next week. Highs should at least reach the 70s. But a few warmer Euro and GFS runs have 80s for the usual warm spots. This is followed by the return of more blocking and cooler temperatures. The clash of air masses will result in more severe potential across the U.S.

Cool weekend

FE262D2B-78B4-4D59-AB86-8A9D7C1CBA06.thumb.png.453122ff477389fa9d4d9759c5ed6c6b.png

 

Brief warm  up next week 

 

9ACB4C04-39FA-44C5-A181-D03631FDD2D0.thumb.png.e233000cee7656256788b03c7e21c40d.png

 

Next cool down with more blocking 

 

31B06174-BC53-442F-AD25-81488721201A.thumb.png.ea707616f922cc4f9bba8efe9bac0997.png

 

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The Euro seasonal is going for a repeat of last summer. High dewpoint ridge east of New England. It could allow more tropical systems to get stuck underneath like we saw last summer. We had 2 tropical and 2 post tropical systems affect our region. There were a total of 21 named storms last year. The Euro has 18-19 named storms for this year. The big story for us was the historic flooding with Ida and Henri. 
 

69C7C6B9-2ED8-441B-A8DB-21C4EBDE3A1A.png.7f2f4aaff4529c44adf1fe9fece37cb4.png

FD0F0196-7446-4139-AA81-6215F18F4421.png.1c9b4dfbf37394ec75d37d144ff5d77f.png

C03E27C4-F2F3-40EB-B7DB-9C5C44723626.png.a423bb61a0dd5dbc3e3f52c9866fe4a2.png

 

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