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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's also room for perspective -

Teeeechnically this is an anomalous air mass.   So... it's not like we should be couching this and/or snow into any sense of "normalcy" for April 28. Thing is, 2000+ elevations ... will have a climo that is cut out from the valley floors but you know that...blah blah notwithstanding.

In fact, it's 44 in what has evolved into a partly to mostly sunny splashed mid day down here, where it is climate to be 65... Even if we make 50, talking -15 during the existential period of the diurnal cycle.   Maybe not shocking, but definitely unjust - haha.   

It may snow at those elevations up your way into May, but it can do so up that way without it being in the mid 40s east of the Berk's down here, just the same.

Ha, ...know what it is?  It's like we shouldn't be shocked that it is shockingly bad - lol

Yeah very true.  12z GEFS initialized at like -14 degrees C below average values over a large chunk of the area at 850mb.  Tomorrow isn't a whole lot higher either, still like -10 C below normal.

gfs-ens_T850a_us_1.thumb.png.e47dab4323a0b68ff9aeeb4aeb88a368.png

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

April1987_snowmap.PNG.3faf5a907ba18a1596060e9b696c3041.PNG

To me it means less that there is no snow in the air or underfoot - that's a separate aspect to just whether or not the air mass in situ would support - which this does with latitude to give even.   I mean as PF was just showing ... -10 to -14 C 850s ?    It's just as bad(good) depending on one's covet.

I mean this may be even colder air mass - not sure... Just sayn', that coulda been a marginal atmosphere when that potent mid level impulse settled through the trough.

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Let evening we had several hours of snowshowers  with just a dusting left over this morning. Had to an errand up in Lincoln NH. This afternoon the "snow on the ground" line is about 5 miles south of there. All the Whites down to the valley floors are snow-covered. Boy, snow-cover and late Aprl sun is blinding bright. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:
ORH,1987-04-28 10:00,METAR KORH 281000Z 10009KT 20SM SCT012 BKN023 OVC070 01/00 A3004 RMK PK WND SLP180 T00110000 50000
ORH,1987-04-28 11:00,METAR KORH 281100Z 10011KT 15SM -SN OVC012 01/M01 A3004 RMK PK WND /SB35MYL SA 1051 AMOS 39/28/0503/M PK WND 03 000 SLP180 T00111006 50000
ORH,1987-04-28 12:00,METAR KORH 281200Z 10011KT 10SM -SN OVC010 01/01 A3003 RMK /VSBY 2V3MYL SP 1230 AMOS 38/27/3100/M PK WND 03 000 SLP173 T00110006 50000
ORH,1987-04-28 13:00,METAR KORH 281300Z 08006KT 1SM -SN OVC006 02/02 A3002 RMK /SB20 SLP173 T00170017 50000
ORH,1987-04-28 14:00,METAR KORH 281400Z 08013KT 1SM -RASN FG OVC/// OVC005 02/02 A3000 RMK PK WND /F2 /RB30MYL SP 1412 AMOS 46/33/1200/M PK WND 00 000 SLP171 P0002 T00170017 50000
ORH,1987-04-28 15:00,METAR KORH 281500Z 09012KT 3/4SM -RASN FG OVC/// OVC004 02/02 A2999 RMK /VSBY 1/2V1 /F3 /80805 17// SLP168 P0003 T00170017 50005
ORH,1987-04-28 16:00,METAR KORH 281600Z 08008KT 1/2SM -RASN FG OVC002 01/01 A2999 RMK /VSBY 1/4V3/4MYL SA 1553 AMOS 58/38/2100/M PK WND 03 000 SLP168 P0006 T00110011 50003
ORH,1987-04-28 17:00,METAR KORH 281700Z 07007KT 1/16SM -RASN FG OVC002 01/01 A2998 RMK SLP165 P0005 T00060006 50007
ORH,1987-04-28 18:00,METAR KORH 281800Z 07007KT 1/16SM -SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2995 RMK / 81527 90402 (R
ORH,1987-04-28 19:00,METAR KORH 281900Z 04006KT 1/16SM SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2995 RMK / SNOINCR 1/1/4 SLP149 P0012 T00001006 50007
ORH,1987-04-28 20:00,METAR KORH 282000Z 05008KT 1/16SM SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2992 RMK / SNOINCR 1/2/5MYL SA 1952SA 1945 E60 BKN 45 77/39/2209/M PK WND 15 000 SLP138 P0014 T00001006 50012
ORH,1987-04-28 21:00,METAR KORH 282100Z 05008KT 1/16SM +SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2989 RMK 0 /72045 90409 SNOINCR 3/6/9 SLP132 P0019 T00001006
ORH,1987-04-28 22:00,METAR KORH 282200Z 05010KT 1/16SM SN FG OVC001 M01/M01 A2989 RMK SNOINCR 1/7/10MYL SP 2211 AMOS 77/38/2409/M PK WND SLP132 P0012 T10061006 50000
ORH,1987-04-28 23:00,METAR KORH 282300Z 06008KT 3/8SM SN FG OVC001 M01/M01 A2988 RMK / S OCNLY S+ SNOINCR 2/9/12 SLP128 P0012 T10061011 50023
ORH,1987-04-29 00:00,METAR KORH 290000Z 05010KT 1/2SM -SN FG OVC003 M01/M01 A2987 RMK / VSBY 1/2V1MYL SP 2330 AMOS 75/38/2306/M PK WND 13 000 SLP121 P0004 T10061011 50000
ORH,1987-04-29 01:00,METAR KORH 290100Z 04007KT 1/2SM -SN FG OVC002 M01/M01 A2985 RMK SLP114 P0003 T10111011 50000
ORH,1987-04-29 02:00,METAR KORH 290200Z 03009KT 1SM -SN FG OVC003 M01/M01 A2981 RMK SLP104 P0002 T10061011 50000
ORH,1987-04-29 03:00,METAR KORH 290300Z 03009KT 6SM CLR M01/M01 A2978 RMK

 

Man obs.

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What are the three values for SNOINCR on those old obs?

I thought it was two values... new hourly snowfall/total on ground.  Is it New/Storm Total/Depth?  

SNOINCR 2/9/12

Snowfall in last hour/Snow depth change since last 6 hour obs/ Snow depth

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Snowfall in last hour/Snow depth change since last 6 hour obs/ Snow depth

Yep. That’s awesome. And to your point about daytime snow, my old coworker kept telling me how the roads were getting snow covered on his way to Lowell at the time. Couldn’t believe it. He said it was pounding.

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It’s like spring loaded … and making 55 out of this gelid piece o shit air mass ‘might’ speak to the potential on Sunday … 

We really haven’t yet taken advantage of the returning sun even once. Every day there’s been sun it’s been an offsetting battle in CAA or cellar starting grind. That’s an interesting under the radar aspect. Not once. 

Yet we’re above normal by insult decimals. Lol. 

Who knows how long we have to wait for the first free height boundary layer to work in - Sunday won’t be it but should recover to 70. At this rate that’ll seem hot 

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah very true.  12z GEFS initialized at like -14 degrees C below average values over a large chunk of the area at 850mb.  Tomorrow isn't a whole lot higher either, still like -10 C below normal.

gfs-ens_T850a_us_1.thumb.png.e47dab4323a0b68ff9aeeb4aeb88a368.png

I’m wondering how NASA’s April climate report shakes out the anomaly distributions (globally).  I’m curious if like the entire planet’s cooling offset budget was over us. Haha. 

I mean despite our feeble positive anomalies (are they even gonna survive the next 48 hrs?) … we could be cooler relative to everywhere else …

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I’m wondering if it’s gonna be a cool asshole boring summer …

Conventional wisdom coming of La Niña (I thought ?) winter/spring typically went on to warm summers. 

I may not be right about that. But suppose I am … when I think back to other hot summers it seemed like they didn’t come out of the gates this way. They were done stuffing -2sd cold turds down our throats by mid March. 

1976 … 2012 these were preceded by weak to moderate Niña 

I have a personal competing concept, tho. I’m not sure these ENSOs are the same in how they interact/force circulation modes like they used to before 10 … especially 20 years ago. They’ve been uncoupling more frequently than my love life, leaving forecasts rather stranded at times. Niña may not mean much. I mean if the hemisphere flips script and gets hot I’m sure Niña will get merit award but who knows.  

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