March 2022

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

JB says that March 12-13, 1993 is a good analog for upcoming period.

That was a Triple Phase starting in the GOM.       Models of the day could not get the deep southeast tip of the cold and snow----but did get the overall idea right 120hrs. in advance.       I do not see even a double phase?

I remember leaving work that Friday and going to the supermarket immediately.       NYC had about 12" but got into the dry slot.        Other spots north and west were 20"-40".      Pressures were near a record and 60-70mph gusts were common.    The Deep South had 3"-10"-----a decades worth for them.

Here is the GFSens.  for the upcoming period snow wise:        The mean has been rising from run to run while the Control has been everywhere.

   

was March 1888 unavailable?...

[snywx]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Well NW and up the Hudson Valley I’d give it an F. Albany has 24” and their season average is in the low 60s. Highly doubt they come close to making that gap up. That’s a disaster for them. Scranton is still under 20” so an F there as well. 

23” ytd.. disaster up here. Only saving grace was the staying power of what little snow we did get. In shaded spots I still have coverage of about 2”

[kat5hurricane]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I’m at about 29” which is slightly below normal for the winter if there’s nothing else. I think @NorthShoreWX has 34” a few towns east of me. I’d give this winter a C if we get no more snow. 

Same here in northeast Queens. I'm at about 26" which is well more than places just west. A good old fashioned "average" winter, have seen very few of those in this new world of extremes.

[forkyfork]

44 minutes ago, uncle W said:

was March 1888 unavailable?...

1914 <3

[LoboLeader1]

 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

JB says that March 12-13, 1993 is a good analog for upcoming period.

That was a Triple Phase starting in the GOM.       Models of the day could not get the deep southeast tip of the cold and snow----but did get the overall idea right 120hrs. in advance.       I do not see even a double phase?

I remember leaving work that Friday and going to the supermarket immediately.       NYC had about 12" but got into the dry slot.        Other spots north and west were 20"-40".      Pressures were near a record and 60-70mph gusts were common.    The Deep South had 3"-10"-----a decades worth for them.

Here is the GFSens.  for the upcoming period snow wise:        The mean has been rising from run to run while the Control has been everywhere.

   

The story for us in that storm was the sleet and rain on top of the 10 inches of snow, which then froze solid. It wasn't a historic snow at all for us, but that amount of thick ice is something I've not seen before or since, and it could not be easily cleaned, resulting in multiple school closures for days.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Until something gets to within 72-96hrs take it with a big dose of suspicion. The situation with the AO/NAO may improve somewhat but still not ideal so we have the same risk of too progressive or too amped. We have plenty of cold nearby but there's the risk it gets mistimed between storms. The wavelengths are shortening now so we may luck out regardless. Bluewave/Don I'm sure will have good stats to describe our odds in this upcoming pattern. 

I'll be looking forward to the warmth on Sun/Mon even though rain comes with it. If the snow's done, last thing I want are more pointless cold shots. Let's just warm up and be done. Hopefully the backdoors aren't too frequent this spring unlike the last few.

I pretty much ignore predictions like this. He doesn't know what will happen anymore than anyone else, and I don't think analogs are particularly useful in the current climate. Just my unprofessional opinion. I wouldn't bet against snow, but I think we are pretty much done for this year; winters like this usually don't result in a snowy March.

[donsutherland1]

It will be variably cloudy and milder tomorrow. A sharp rebound in temperatures is likely on Sunday. Sunday and Monday could provide an early preview of springlike readings across much of the region. Afterward, readings could cool, but remain above seasonable levels until after March 10th. Then, there is growing model consensus that a noticeably colder pattern could develop. The development and duration of such a pattern remain somewhat uncertain.

Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March.

The SOI was +14.12 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was not available today.

On March 2 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.317 (RMM). The March 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.471 (RMM).

 

[brooklynwx99]

I'll continue to take my chances with this much cold air around. there's been signals for a larger system around the 13-18th, and it does fit the general pattern around that time

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS has 4 storms tracking to our west through the 13th.
 

 

Oh please no :( Winter can be over, I'm fine with it but please not 4 rainstorms in less than 2 weeks. 

[MJO812]

Mid month is still worth watching 

[winterwx21]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mid month is still worth watching 

GGEM still showing a snow event wednesday. Since this is the only model showing it, we'd have to say there's only a very slight chance of it happening. But bluewave has talked about how much better GGEM has performed since the upgrade. It has become a good model, so we can't completely discount this possibility. We have to keep an eye on wednesday.

[MJO812]

@Doorman

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 26 here as of 6:30 this AM, temps dipped to 23 overnite. 35 for a high yesterday.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.(38/54), or +5.

Reached 41 here yesterday.

Today: 46-49, wind s. to e., cloudy breaks, 48 by tomorrow AM.

Monday is a 3-Pointer for 70+.        (+3.1sd is possible)

Traces of Snow for the 9th., 13th?

34*(90%RH) here at 6am.      37* at 9am.       40* at 10am.        44* at Noon.      45* at 1pm.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s always challenging to restart a snowy pattern once it shuts off. This winter was a one month wonder for snowfall in January. The SE Ridge became too dominant in February. Last year had the great February snowfall pattern that quickly reversed for March. 19-20 didn’t have any snowy intervals. 18-19 had the snowy November and the snowfall didn’t restart until March. 17-18 needed a major SSW to restart the snowy pattern in March following the snowy late December to early January. Snowfall in 16-17 was pretty evenly distributed despite the record 40° winter average temperature. 15-16 had the record snows from late January into early February before the snowy pattern reversed. 

who are these people who think that -NAO are more common than +NAO?  From everything I've seen +NAO is the base state and lasts longer than -NAO, which are fleeting and only last for short bursts.  On top of that not all -NAO are good anyway, we have east and south based ones which are bad for us.  So in most cases the NAO is unfavorable.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tough to bet against the SE Ridge with the record SSTs off the East Coast. 
 

 

Might as well get used to that, it looks like that is the new base state too, I thought you and some others said that warm sst are good for big bombing snowstorms? Maybe its too much of a good thing and we are finally seeing the other side of the equation now, where its actually heating up the atmosphere, where before it was only adding more moisture and energy to storms, causing higher snowfall totals?

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Snowman19 can shove his weenies 

shove them where?

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, snywx said:

23” ytd.. disaster up here. Only saving grace was the staying power of what little snow we did get. In shaded spots I still have coverage of about 2”

thats weird you got less snow than I did....I had 26" here which is about average.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

Same here in northeast Queens. I'm at about 26" which is well more than places just west. A good old fashioned "average" winter, have seen very few of those in this new world of extremes.

same 26" here in SW Nassau, pretty decent

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

The story for us in that storm was the sleet and rain on top of the 10 inches of snow, which then froze solid. It wasn't a historic snow at all for us, but that amount of thick ice is something I've not seen before or since, and it could not be easily cleaned, resulting in multiple school closures for days.

right that wasnt historic for us, I enjoyed March 2015 much more than either March 1993 or March 2018 for that matter.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Oh please no Winter can be over, I'm fine with it but please not 4 rainstorms in less than 2 weeks. 

no rain at all is far preferable....honestly, who needs or wants rain? I'd much rather have heat and dry heat at that

 

[rclab]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

shove them where?

Good morning Liberty. We will need a new thread for this, possibly age restricted. As always ….

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy and warmer today High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region and 50s in southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 54°

Near record and record warmth is likely tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 46.4°; 15-Year: 46.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 47.4°; 15-Year: 48.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.2°

[gravitylover]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

no rain at all is far preferable....honestly, who needs or wants rain? I'd much rather have heat and dry heat at that

 

No, no rain would be terrible. After a relatively dry last 7 months we need the water. There's very little snowmelt going to go into the reservoirs and those of us that live with wells also need it. Drought sucks and it can be worse than too wet. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Might as well get used to that, it looks like that is the new base state too, I thought you and some others said that warm sst are good for big bombing snowstorms? Maybe its too much of a good thing and we are finally seeing the other side of the equation now, where its actually heating up the atmosphere, where before it was only adding more moisture and energy to storms, causing higher snowfall totals?

 

The SE Ridge or WAR  has been the dominant player since the record breaking event in December 2015. So we have seen both record warmth and record snowstorms over this period. But no sustained cold with the last 7 winters coming in with above normal temperatures. The record warm pool was found to really enhance the snowfall and storm intensity in events like the January 2016 blizzard and December 2020 interior jackpot snowstorm. We just needed blocking to force the storm track to our SE for a cold enough for snow solution. 
 

 

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Who cares if the EPO is favorable if there's no Atlantic blocking. It just means the cold gets dumped west as the SE ridge amplifies. 

Also cold month? I see a couple 70+ days ahead and then seasonal to AN afterwards with a couple colder days mixed in.

The Atlantic blocking & +PNA shown was just a headfake and transitory. Also I'm not sure what Doorman is smoking. How will that lead to a coastal track exactly? 

There's no blocking to force the low to the coast. There's a better chance on the 9th. CMC has a little snow with it 

Doorman, of course is using the severely cold biased GFS, the worst scoring model there is. Has been abysmal all winter long. This is the same guy who insisted we were getting a major snowstorm with the last event and we didn’t see so much as a flake even up here in Rockland. He insisted it was going to be a big snow event right up until it started when it was blatantly obvious it was way too warm in the midlevels, it started and ended as all sleet

[Brasiluvsnow]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Doorman, of course is using the severely cold biased GFS, the worst scoring model there is. Has been abysmal all winter long. This is the same guy who insisted we were getting a major snowstorm with the last event and we didn’t see so much as a flake even up here in Rockland. He insisted it was going to be a big snow event right up until it started when it was blatantly obvious it was way too warm in the midlevels, it started and ended as all sleet

Hows that saying go ? I believe something like this = Snowman19 in his glass house should not throw stones 

[MJO812]

Cmc

[wdrag]

4 consecutive runs of 1-7” snow accum for our sub forum. Again and again, if the GGEM doesn’t have snow, very difficult to get anything.   If EC continues 00z/5 trend then I think we’re in a good place for a minor to moderate 9 to 12 hour event part of the area though lots of melting on pavement w temps 32-33F.  Wetter snow.   Early, but GGEM is our only real legit hope next 10 days.  
 

Disappointing outcomes this past Tue eve and Wed night.  It’s late.  I’d like to get past 20” for the winter in Wantage. 

 

have a day!