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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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Day 2 SLGT

2/15/15

Exerpt for MidAtl...

... 

At this time, one area of potentially greater storm coverage -- and
   thus severe potential, given the favorably strong wind field
   forecast atop the region -- will be along and east of the higher
   terrain of the central Appalachians.  Storms should develop by early
   afternoon, and spread east-southeastward with time. 
   Organized/rotating updrafts should evolve, given the available
   shear, with these stronger storms capable of producing large hail
   and damaging winds.  Risk may continue well into the evening across
   portions of the area, as one of the more pronounced disturbances
   aloft shifts southeastward out of the Midwest and across the
   mountains during the evening/overnight.

 

 

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On 6/5/2022 at 8:11 AM, Kmlwx said:

@ravensrule would be in here in 2 seconds with a comment like that. 

I've just gone down the rabbit hole reading the "Noteworthy Derecho Events" page on the SPC site. 

If only severe made me horny like snow, you would be 100% correct. 

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3 hours ago, yoda said:

I've moved on to the MCS threat Monday night into Tuesday morning... and um... the 00z NAM and 06z NAM are very concerning

All of the models except the NAM Nest fire an MCS Monday afternoon north of Chicago and keep it going to the east coast.  NAM and GFS are north of us (NYC/Philly), but the Euro is right over us.

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First, while it's not clear how much instability will be available today, and storm coverage may therefore be very limited, the shear does support some supercell structures if any storms can be sustained.

Onto early Tuesday, it's hard to ignore the explicit MCS signals in several CAMs, and we all know that the overall pattern supports the idea.    What's not clear to me is whether it would be a severe MCS (I'll avoid the D word for now) or just a rainy, noisy elevated MCS.    Verbatim, forecast soundings suggest that the system would not be surface-based, which would reduce the threat of big surface wind, but it's certainly too early to dismiss a widespread SVR threat.

 

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First, while it's not clear how much instability will be available today, and storm coverage may therefore be very limited, the shear does support some supercell structures if any storms can be sustained.
Onto early Tuesday, it's hard to ignore the explicit MCS signals in several CAMs, and we all know that the overall pattern supports the idea.    What's not clear to me is whether it would be a severe MCS (I'll avoid the D word for now) or just a rainy, noisy elevated MCS.    Verbatim, forecast soundings suggest that the system would not be surface-based, which would reduce the threat of big surface wind, but it's certainly too early to dismiss a widespread SVR threat.
 

Some nice clearing inbound and observed sun here. 0843216c49be1df3abce3333a80799c4.jpg
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We might be too far north or east to receive the storms forming out in Ohio and West Virginia. However, at least one of yesterday's SPC Convective outlook discussions, mentioned that the shortwave coming out of the Ohio Valley today and crossing over the Appalachians would produce some strong to severe storms well into the night for some portion of the Mid Atlantic region.  Probably going to be a Richmond target.

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Well it's almost 4 pm and there is nothing on radar so that probably doesn't bode well.

     It doesn't, but 18Z HRRR and NAM Nest still suggest that a cell or two is possible closer to sunset, especially in central or northern MD.     And as mentioned earlier, any sustained cell today has potential to rotate.

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It's been a busy weekend...but I'm just now having a chance to come up for air and take a look at everything. 

We tend to get lines of storms ahead of schedule...not sure if this would apply to the D-word or large MCSs as well...but I'd assume so. Still, the current timing is well into the overnight period tomorrow night and even closer to 12z Tue AM on some of the models. That's not ideal as @high risk already said for true surface based activity. 

The 2012 derecho came through late into the evening - but it was also a ridiculously hot airmass area-wide and it was before midnight. 12z is like the worst time entirely for anything severe t'storm related (it's happened, yes...but it's rare). 

MCS activity (and particularly derechos) are insanely tough to model/predict...and when we are talking about sensible weather, a different of a hundred miles or two is going to mean a ton for your specific location. 

Few things that I'll be watching for - 1) how much instability is left if the line/complex comes through at that awful time in the diurnal cycle. 2) If the timing really is 12z Tue AM - I think even 6 hours earlier would increase the risk substantially - make it 8-12 hours earlier and even better for severe odds (I think 12 hours might be a tall task, though). 3) We'll need to see where the instability gradient sets up - it's a razor sharp margin on some of the models and if you're too far NE of that...game over. 

I think EVERYONE is in the game in this subforum for right now. That will obviously change as we get closer to (and into) the event. 

Doesn't mean anything - but that day 2 Outlook has "the look" of 2012...obviously not basing that on any other analog factor other than map drawings (which don't mean much). 

I think today will be a feast or famine - if a supercell or two form, somebody will get pummeled - but I'm punting. If something pops this evening, I'll track it of course. 

Buckle up...let's see what tomorrow holds as we get closer to the potential.

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Also - looking at CIPS - it's pretty darn quiet and unenthused with anything in the short term (may not mean a ton). Around 100hrs and shortly after, there's a decent signal from the GL region/midwest and into our region. Bears watching since we are potentially entering a period with increased chances for a "ring of fire" pattern. 

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