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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Man ya gave me the hives with that equation...I'm allergic to math!!!

Simple equation for a sine wave. Applicable to almost everything in nature, from seasonal water table variations, to AC voltage and current, to Rossby wave behavior in the atmosphere. Math is fun!

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22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Simple equation for a sine wave. Applicable to almost everything in nature, from seasonal water table variations, to AC voltage and current, to Rossby wave behavior in the atmosphere. Math is fun!

Tell that to my PTMD...lol (though one teacher at CCBC pulled off a heck of a miracle when I got an A in some of the same Algebra I flunked in high school). I will say that I do appreciate WHAT math makes possible (even the simple math when it comes to music). But childhood memories of fruitless, torturous coach classes and tutoring remain...lol

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not much to say about HH GFS. It is still holding its ground for the most part. We will probably know in another 4-5 days whether or not it has a clue or if it is just doing GFS-like things that have largely been in error lately. 

Yup, I'm holding fire until Sunday.  Not getting vested into something like that this far out.  I know you like the period after that, but I'm still riding on the fact that it's 100+ hours out and there's now way the models have the exact High placement yet.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Yup, I'm holding fire until Sunday.  Not getting vested into something like that this far out.  I know you like the period after that, but I'm still riding on the fact that it's 100+ hours out and there's now way the models have the exact High placement yet.

I would love for the GFS idea to be more correct, but well, I just don't trust it after its recent performances. Ask Psu how much snow he had in his yard last weekend and then ask me lol. The GFS was inverted right up until game time.. and then we have the 2 events prior to that to consider. It is defo on a 'negative' heater. Tossing out all the guidance though, the other thing I don't like is the pattern leading in fundamentally isn't a good match for frozen in this area. Not impossible, but..

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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not much to say about HH GFS. It is still holding its ground for the most part. We will probably know in another 4-5 days whether or not it has a clue or if it is just doing GFS-like things that have largely been in error lately. 

I guess saying "GFS things" is probably the best way to put it.  There really doesn't seem to be an obvious bias.  The GFS has been too far NW with some systems, too far SE with others and locked in on a few. The last system to affect the midwest was a good example of the GFS being stubbornly NW while the EC and CMC were  pretty good if you blended the two. 

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Just now, poolz1 said:

I guess saying "GFS things" is probably the best way to put it.  There really doesn't seem to be an obvious bias.  The GFS has been too far NW with some systems, too far SE with others and locked in on a few. The last system to affect the midwest was a good example of the GFS being stubbornly NW while the EC and CMC were  pretty good if you blended the two. 

It has generally been more erratic than typical. Maybe it is about to get back on a hot streak.

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33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It has generally been more erratic than typical. Maybe it is about to get back on a hot streak.

Life was easier when the GFS was always more progressive and the euro was always amped/NW.  They had to go and upgrade everything and confuse the :weenie:s

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Looking at all of the ensembles today at WB 12Z the highest snow mean is centered in central NY to central PA.  Hopefully we will see a shift southward over the next week, but everyone should keep their expectations in check…I will post 12Z tomorrow for comparison.
C5711510-C2FC-4A46-B4BD-EB78A293DD99.thumb.png.90550a495c3462b14e08aaf4deab29f8.png
 
 
FCD344F7-5192-4326-ACB4-D39BE2DAEB7D.thumb.png.50628df91142d0f4a7edf4312309fb22.png
31D83453-F026-4B5E-9D20-E980EFA71B63.thumb.png.964e7db57db5eac099abd3607b173e73.png
Thanks William. Ill try to lower my sky high expectations
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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

y = A sin(B(x + C)) + D

The amplitude and period of the ups and the downs vary depending on the amount of snow or lack there of for any particular model cycle.

I was thinking a cosine graph with a negative leading coefficient so that we start low (preseason debs), then progress to the pinnacle only to be let down right in the middle of winter progressing to renewed enthusiastic right as winter ends (stupid fantasy) lol

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was thinking a cosine graph with a negative leading coefficient so that we start low (preseason debs), then progress to the pinnacle only to be let down right in the middle of winter progressing to renewed enthusiastic right as winter ends (stupid fantasy) lol

In other words….that’s how we roll

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20 minutes ago, Ji said:
53 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
Looking at all of the ensembles today at WB 12Z the highest snow mean is centered in central NY to central PA.  Hopefully we will see a shift southward over the next week, but everyone should keep their expectations in check…I will post 12Z tomorrow for comparison.
C5711510-C2FC-4A46-B4BD-EB78A293DD99.thumb.png.90550a495c3462b14e08aaf4deab29f8.png
 
 
FCD344F7-5192-4326-ACB4-D39BE2DAEB7D.thumb.png.50628df91142d0f4a7edf4312309fb22.png
31D83453-F026-4B5E-9D20-E980EFA71B63.thumb.png.964e7db57db5eac099abd3607b173e73.png

Thanks William. Ill try to lower my sky high expectations

After President’s Day, the inevitable March to spring accelerates.   I am definitely in the camp that says give me a 6 inch plus storm or let’s just go to Spring.  

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, Weather Will said:
Looking at all of the ensembles today at WB 12Z the highest snow mean is centered in central NY to central PA.  Hopefully we will see a shift southward over the next week, but everyone should keep their expectations in check…I will post 12Z tomorrow for comparison.
C5711510-C2FC-4A46-B4BD-EB78A293DD99.thumb.png.90550a495c3462b14e08aaf4deab29f8.png
 
 
FCD344F7-5192-4326-ACB4-D39BE2DAEB7D.thumb.png.50628df91142d0f4a7edf4312309fb22.png
31D83453-F026-4B5E-9D20-E980EFA71B63.thumb.png.964e7db57db5eac099abd3607b173e73.png

Thanks William. Ill try to lower my sky high expectations

Hogwash.. Weather Won't will come through

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So... No comments on the 00Z GFS? Still looks like an icy mess for the most part with a lot of precip while 2m temps are below freezing. DC area goes above freezing sometime after 18Z Friday but in the mid 30s or so. Precip moves out after 00Z and temps cool again. Just took a quick glance but that's kinda how it looks. Will let others with more insight chime in. 

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12 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

So... No comments on the 00Z GFS? Still looks like an icy mess for the most part with a lot of precip while 2m temps are below freezing. DC area goes above freezing sometime after 18Z Friday but in the mid 30s or so. Precip moves out after 00Z and temps cool again. Just took a quick glance but that's kinda how it looks. Will let others with more insight chime in. 

Here is the 0z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain through next Saturday am.

1B62315C-DC37-45A8-907A-99F6AF6437A3.png

 

C9B6D9F1-7704-4D81-A274-A141C151BA77.png

0CC654C0-7842-46DB-A700-C1184636095E.png

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7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Nothing to hold it in place. Wish I could believe the gfs. Cmc isn't really close to frozen and neither was the 12z euro.

Gfs cold bias at Play most likely.

Hope I'm dead wrong. 

GFS has been really good this winter

 Let's get this colder so we all win

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