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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thread 

Yup.  With New England style title:

The WinterWxLuvr Snow/Ice/ Impacts To Daily Life and Liberty that could Cause Power Outages Kill Pets Prolific Winds Turn Off the Lights, Let's Get Closer Power Outages Grocery Runs Mass Extinction Crop Killing Baby Shark Doo Doo Di Doo Di Doo Washington Commander HAHAH Storm. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  With New England style title:

The WinterWxLuvr Snow/Ice/ Impacts To Daily Life and Liberty that could Cause Power Outages Kill Pets Prolific Winds Turn Off the Lights, Let's Get Closer Power Outages Grocery Runs Mass Extinction Crop Killing Baby Shark Doo Doo Di Doo Di Doo Washington Commander HAHAH Storm. 

Need to work in kicking bunnies and cute puppies, but maybe "kill pets" covers that already!  Perhaps a mention of Rumpelstiltskin too, for good measure.

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These types of storms like the gfs is showing don't really need a carving setup in advance. Those are when cold approaches from the west. When something is pressing on top, it can bully its way down as cold air is very dense and confluence keeps pushing and pushing. It's completely reasonable to entertain the possibility of winning next weekend as it's not a huge stretch. That said, I wish we lived further north. 

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

These types of storms like the gfs is showing don't really need a carving setup in advance. Those are when cold approaches from the west. When something is pressing on top, it can bully its way down as cold air is very dense and confluence keeps pushing and pushing. It's completely reasonable to entertain the possibility of winning next weekend as it's not a huge stretch. That said, I wish we lived further north. 

Now I Googled and couldn't find it, so I'll ask: Could you clarify what you mean by a "carving setup"?

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

CMC stuck at 156 but slides precip shield so far south that we are barely on the north end getting some light snow

lol....hopefully this too suppressed bs we have seen all winter wont be a factor in Late Feb/early march

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

CMC stuck at 156 but slides precip shield so far south that we are barely on the north end getting some light snow

Almost looks like the two disturbances in the southwest mess with each other, has a storm afterwards but its a weak costal low that is purely an ice to rain setup. They almost shear each other out and bring the storms north? Seems like an odd outcome. 

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Just now, IronTy said:

I don't remove the bubbler and put the water pump back into my pond unless I'm confident the winter is basically over.  And I put the pump back in the pond yesterday.  Haven't removed the bubbler just to hedge a bit but I'm pretty confident.  

I agree. Winter is over for you 

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

These types of storms like the gfs is showing don't really need a carving setup in advance. Those are when cold approaches from the west. When something is pressing on top, it can bully its way down as cold air is very dense and confluence keeps pushing and pushing. It's completely reasonable to entertain the possibility of winning next weekend as it's not a huge stretch. That said, I wish we lived further north

Yeah, but then we'd have to live further north. :P  

Rooting for the GFS.  It has consistently been leading the other models wrt sniffing out frozen chances imby this winter.  Granted, it will say 12" to 20" and the other models will say little to nothing, and then it will come back down off its sugar high and show realistic solutions that do verify with like 4"-8".

I guess technically, a model spitting out 0" is closer to a snow of 4" than a model depicting 12", but I will take the model showing a chance of frozen that verifies over models showing nothing.  In this sense, the GFS has kicked the Euro's butt this year for mby.

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You don’t know understand. This place is a roller coaster of emotion. It’s “over” is cyclical. I’ve even created an equation to model it.

y = A sin(B(x + C)) + D

The amplitude and period of the ups and the downs vary depending on the amount of snow or lack there of for any particular model cycle.

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