Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,179
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DClerico
    Newest Member
    DClerico
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

weak front with developing SLP riding it?  I mean SLP forms down in NW NC and then runs NE... gets to 995mb just east of us and 980s into NE

Yeah, but very odd with all the precip on the back of the storm and almost none in the warm sector.  It's almost just like a surface reflection of the strong ULL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I honestly rarely look but I do know at one point earlier in January they showed a total torch for February. 

That may be true, I definitely don’t chart it out.  Just hope the Valentines Day period pans out. Don’t want to rely on late  February/ March.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's similar to yesterday's 18z.  And it's really weird. Not sure even what you'd call that?

I’ve seen that synoptic progression happen a few times. Not impossible. But it’s not something models will get right from range. And to work we need the secondary to pop southeast of us now right over us like the 12z Gfs.   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, but very odd with all the precip on the back of the storm and almost none in the warm sector.  It's almost just like a surface reflection of the strong ULL.

The weird atypical presentation is because of the combo of the STJ wave out ahead of it and the stronger initial low along the front to the north. The stj wave is the focus of the deep tropical moisture and the low to the north prevents any closed circulation. The combo means no typical WAA precip to the northeast of the developing low until it eventually phases. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

That may be true, I definitely don’t chart it out.  Just hope the Valentines Day period pans out. Don’t want to rely on late  February/ March.

Hey we have one more historically more favorable weekend after that :lol: Not saying anything happens then, but in general...for us at the urban corridor elevation and lower, President’s Day tends to be that bookend for warning-level snows (always exceptions, of course). March can be a stat padder, however...might not get a flush hit (but maybe a slush hit), but we can still eek out an inch here or there. But overall yeah...don't wanna have to rely on that, lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Euro has almost no Southern Stream energy enter the country for the whole run, could someone who is smarter than me explain why that is?

Well, that would actually be more of what you'd expect in a nina (those are NS dominant) The active stj we've had has been a bit unusual for this enso...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...