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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but what is it that causes the energy to hang back in the SW in such a progressive pattern?  In a progressive pattern shouldn't everything be moving?

 

It kind of just gets left behind between the diving in northern stream and steep PNA ridge it looks like, like a cut off eddy in a stream. But hopefully it ends up participating more and adding to the storm. 

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NAM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: NYC    LAT=  40.77 LON=  -73.98 ELE=    89

                                             7P JAN26
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED  7P 26-JAN  -4.7   -18.1    1031      47       3             539     515    
THU  1A 27-JAN  -7.0   -14.8    1031      64       4    0.00     546     522    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -8.4   -12.7    1032      82       6    0.00     549     525    
THU  1P 27-JAN  -2.2   -10.9    1029      59       8    0.00     549     527    
THU  7P 27-JAN  -2.4    -6.7    1026      63      38    0.00     547     527    
FRI  1A 28-JAN  -2.1    -6.0    1023      72      92    0.00     546     528    
FRI  7A 28-JAN  -2.3    -7.1    1021      88      91    0.01     544     527    
FRI  1P 28-JAN   1.1    -8.1    1021      66      66    0.00     542     526    
FRI  7P 28-JAN   0.1    -9.7    1020      67      83    0.00     541     525    
SAT  1A 29-JAN  -4.9   -10.2    1019      74      82    0.00     539     525    
SAT  7A 29-JAN  -9.1   -11.3    1016      87      87    0.10     537     526    
SAT  1P 29-JAN -10.4    -9.1    1008      84      87    0.14     532     526    
SAT  7P 29-JAN  -8.1   -10.6    1004      49      90    0.06     527     524    
SUN  1A 30-JAN                                                                  
SUN  7A 30-JAN                                                                  
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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

NAM digs a little too far south/closes off too far south and it kind of escapes east and occludes. Again since it’s the Nam I really couldn’t care less. Just hysterical. 

another run another solution....verbatim crappy for most of our area with north winds bringing in dry air

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Great run on the 0z NAM. It's not quite what we want - still needs work - but it was the kind of run we needed to stay in the game. There's a good chance the 700mb low shifts north on future runs if that basic upper level evolution holds. That could end up looking very Euro-like.

If everything else at 0z stays the same or shifts further east, this was probably a blip run and we're probably toast. It would be huge to see meaningful shifts west from the rest of 0z.

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