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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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A storm system will develop over the southeast and move up the eastern seaboard between January 28th and 30th.  As currently modeled this is a thread the needle type of event for our area.

There's strong ensemble support for a major storm somewhere off of our coastline.  This could work out for us but there's no real high lattitude blocking on the Atlantic side to slow things down and reinforce cold air into the area.  Please feel free to discuss all that in here. 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is a lot better than 00z... better alignment and amplification of the PNA ridge and it results in a much deeper trough

this will certainly result in a more favorable surface output

gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh126_trend.thumb.gif.130d31438d96e13f3b55ca0f2810f48e.gif

Height rises in the Canadian Maritimes also now being depicted = less progressive flow out  on the Atlantic side; amplitude - let's see if this becomes a trend with future guidance.

 

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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There’s a thread the needle scenario that could work out with with this system. While our biggest snowstorms usually have both a -AO and +PNA around storm time, the late January 2015 event only  had a +AO. Latest runs are just a little too far to the east with the PNA ridge. So the current runs take the storm to our east. But since we have a +AO, maybe latter runs can pump the ridge east of New England more?  This would allow the storm to came further west with a sharper WAR just to the east. 
 

00725E16-93E6-4A0C-B5BA-A97E03C6449B.thumb.png.4ed98c378e86bdc4adcaf4077d7f1398.png

 

well looky here. ..  BW

green means go???????    :unsure: 

paging mr cowan

 

1839981221_ScreenShot2022-01-23at10_01_58AM.thumb.png.9150fa4979aacdf9f4924ff3fa6bc971.png

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d6500wbg.gif

how about that?

 

wpc disco

...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...

Within the fairly agreeable mean pattern, the most prominent
forecast uncertainties have been with the eastern Pacific/western
U.S. evolution as shortwave energy approaches the upper ridge that
reaches the West along with expected western Atlantic development
as an amplified trough reaches the East late in the week.  Model
and ensemble spread remains considerable for the Pacific/West
area, with recent GFS runs and 12Z CMC holding onto a stronger
ridge versus the past couple ECMWF runs.  However the 18Z and new
00Z GFS runs have adjusted much closer to the 12Z ECMWF and the
ensemble means.  The 00Z CMC has also trended toward this
improving cluster.  This leaves the 00Z UKMET that diverges from
most other guidance for various aspects of the eastern
Pacific/northwestern North American pattern.  Perhaps with the aid
of this better western agreement, the 00Z models have trended
somewhat closer for the late week/weekend Atlantic development. 
In particular the 00Z GFS has gone away from the 12Z/18Z runs
whose slower/sharper/elongated upper trough had produced a farther
southwest storm than a great majority of GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ensemble
members.  The 00Z GFS/CMC and latest ensemble means are now
similar in showing low pressure somewhat east of the Mid-Atlantic
coast early Saturday and then tracking into or south of the
Canadian Maritimes by early Sunday.  The supporting shortwave
energy is currently over the North Pacific and is not scheduled to
round the East Pacific ridge until around Tuesday, plus guidance
is still varying with the western ridge/Pacific energy heading
into it, so it will likely take a while to gain much more
confidence in a particular scenario.

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11 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Trough is still too far east for us to get anything significant. 

Some years its just the way it goes. I was surprised at the one event we got earlier in this region, and while I'm never shocked to see snow against all odds ( it is winter after all ) I will not be surprised if that remains our only significant event this year ( going with history; snowless Dec in New Brunswick NJ area often correlates with below average snowfall for remainder of the winter, though in 2016 we did get a January whopper ). We'll see. Clock is ticking. 

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Truly insane snowfall NYC east on that CMC run. Actually everyone gets heavy snow, but eastern areas are buried! It's nice to see big solutions like this, but obviously we would need a near perfect upper level evolution to get something like this. It's on the table... but so is a complete miss.

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5 minutes ago, Doorman said:

gfs_z500_mslp_wus_fh132_trend.thumb.gif.472c5900186ddf05d8988f7e6f7c5879.gif

 

upstream TRENDS 500mb

Northwest  shifts translate well downstream (east coast)

 the small scale changes here can bring us a much better solution----imho

Positive changes on the gefs

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9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The CMC is a very powerful storm. Wow. And it deepens extremely rapidly down into the 960s at a perfect time for us. Sign me up for that solution. Could be rain for eastern sections... not sure yet.

How can we get a big snow without blocking? I'm no met or even close, but it seems to me from all I have read here over the years, that is critical....

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Cmc is about best case scenario with a system like this without blocking. Ukie still wide right but made improvements. I think every Miller B in history the ukie was wide right at this range hah. The gfs made improvements if you ignore the final solution it was actually more similar to yesterday's 18z run vs any other run. Wouldn't have taken much change to start forming a low near the Se coast. 

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

How can we get a big snow without blocking? I'm no met or even close, but it seems to me from all I have read here over the years, that is critical....

Any time you have a well placed strong western/Rockies ridge you can get a major snow event with a +NAO.  I think January 87 had a strongly positive NAO 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Strong enough ridging near the Canadian Maritimes and east of New England can act as a substitute -NAO and -AO.

Ok so it is possible, but how probable? I remember the Jan 87 storm; it was no blockbuster but highly disruptive due to timing. And for the times, it actually was a blockbuster, even if amounts weren't that high. Feb 2006, I thought we had some transient blocking?

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