eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The CMC might be the best model run of the winter so far. Snow would start late Friday night and continue for almost 24 hours! Weekend snow! Very heavy snow with major accumulations region-wide. Blizzard conditions probably on LI. It stays cold with a follow-up 2-4" on Monday with an inverted trof associated with a late developing coastal low. Wow what a weenie run! My take is a miss east is favored here. The sharpness, amplitude, and orientation of the trof are very sensitive to minor changes. Eastern SNE seems to stand the best chance for significant precipitation. But seeing this huge solution means we're still in the game I think. Just gotta keep expectations in check. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The UKMET is not even in the same universe as the CMC It's worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 This is not bad at all for this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 39 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Was wondering why there were 25 posts since I checked on the GFS run 45 min ago lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, eduggs said: The CMC might be the best model run of the winter so far. Snow would start late Friday night and continue for almost 24 hours! Weekend snow! Very heavy snow with major accumulations region-wide. Blizzard conditions probably on LI. It stays cold with a follow-up 2-4" on Monday with an inverted trof associated with a late developing coastal low. Wow what a weenie run! My take is a miss east is favored here. The sharpness, amplitude, and orientation of the trof are very sensitive to minor changes. Eastern SNE seems to stand the best chance for significant precipitation. But seeing this huge solution means we're still in the game I think. Just gotta keep expectations in check. I wouldn’t be getting sucked into this one too quickly… like you said it’s a nice thought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I wouldn’t be getting sucked into this one too quickly… like you said it’s a nice thought. Agreed. I expect this storm to miss east. The CMC is very sharp and amplified compared to other guidance, but it still isn't expansive with precipitation on the western quadrant. That's a red flag to me. But we haven't had that many fantasy blizzards this year, so it's fun to revel in one for a little while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The most famous example of a WAR substituting for a -AO -NAO was 1-27-15. Not much of a storm around here IIRC; around 6-7 inches. Think it was mostly east. Was this the one the Euro held onto long after the other models dropped off? Still, in a year like this, 6-7 inches is just fine. I think this is way early to be getting excited over, but there's nothing else going on ( other than a possible war in Europe ....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Admittedly, I usually don't look at the Canadian ensembles. So I don't know how useful they are. But they seem to be getting more on board at 12z for whatever it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 CMC snow map from 12Z today for the 30th, and the GFS snow map for the 30th from three days ago. Very similar for the northeast, it probably doesn't mean a lot but certainly worth monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I’m almost certain that it won’t snow, if only to not get sucked in to checking the models.. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: CMC snow map from 12Z today for the 30th, and the GFS snow map for the 30th from three days ago. Very similar for the northeast, it probably doesn't mean a lot but certainly worth monitoring. GFS from yesterday too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Still sticking with at least 2 models have to show a hit in same cycle before I get too interested, so CMC on it's own isn't going to excite me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Euro still OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro still OTS Bias in play? I'm still waiting for my snow this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Bias in play? I'm still waiting for my snow this weekend Look at 500mb - no bueno - trough is flatter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: The most famous example of a WAR substituting for a -AO -NAO was 1-27-15. Was that the storm which gave us 10 inches instead of the 3 feet we were supposed to get? If not we really need to start naming these storms, because two big storms in a month gets very confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 42 minutes ago, North and West said: I’m almost certain that it won’t snow, if only to not get sucked in to checking the models. . The face in that last one says it all. You're excited because it offers you hope but you're angry because you know it's false hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Bias in play? I'm still waiting for my snow this weekend It's always right when it shows no snow lol. Thats why we call it Dr No! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: The face in that last one says it all. You're excited because it offers you hope but you're angry because you know it's false hope Good afternoon Liberty. In my case the plumbing won’t allow me to sleep. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro still OTS It has zilch for snow, it’s actually gotten worse aloft for anything here. We’ll see what happens at 0z but for now it’s the CMC vs the world, no other model is even remotely close to what it just showed 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The Euro is not close. The UK is far off, but not hopeless. GFS is a clear miss but close enough to be interesting. The CMC is nearly perfect but no wiggle room east. I feel like we're always in this position kind of hoping for a miracle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It has zilch for snow, it’s actually gotten worse aloft for anything here. We’ll see what happens at 0z but for now it’s the CMC vs the world, no other model is even remotely close to what it just showed This threat has been dead. Who cares what one op run of a model shows 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Look at 500mb - no bueno - trough is flatter. Possible holding back energy See SNE threads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 A few weeks ago it was the GFS vs the world. Then the EC vs. the world. And now the CMC takes its turn. I doubt the CMC will hold up resistance as long as the others did, however. It trends to be more variable beyond 5 days. This is a clear miss east for now... but continue to monitor... unless there is a multi-model trend towards more impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Possible holding back energy See SNE threads SNE will weenie out the longest because they have the best shot if this misses east. They will wishcast with the best of them and call it analysis. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: So we'll likely go into a warmer pattern without any storm whatsoever Looks like it unfortunately. We kept the same unfavorable fast flow despite colder air coming in due to Alaskan ridging. The CMC is on an island. Tonight will make or break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: So we'll likely go into a warmer pattern without any storm whatsoever Probably. And then we might get our best snows of the year in a "warm" pattern. Sometimes it's just random like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 There’s potential enough that a model keeps “seeing” it - just different ones so far. Still a couple days to see it there is any movement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, eduggs said: Probably. And then we might get our best snows of the year in a "warm" pattern. Sometimes it's just random like that. When the wavelengths start to change that's when things could get wonky. And sometimes that wonkiness can lead to a snowstorm. CC has accelerated the odds of such freak occurrences deep into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Looks like it unfortunately. We kept the same unfavorable fast flow despite colder air coming in due to Alaskan ridging. The CMC is on an island. Tonight will make or break it. One thing to realize is with this fast flow all events are thread the needle events regardless of how cold it is. This area is very dependent on coastal systems and when they dont happen 90 pct of the time it wont snow. If you're not going to have a coastal storm the only other way to get snow is to have LESS COLD AIR and to have mild air down by southern NJ setting up the storm track there. And that's why we are in a thread the needle type pattern. People always talk about gradient patterns, well we have thread the needle patterns too- and this is it. It can't be too cold or too warm it has to be just right for it to snow here in this kind of stable pattern. And on another note, these fast flows have become much more common lately, might be another function of CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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