Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Be careful about the Kevchera method of ratios. Tends to go wild. 

Kevchera is drunk off DIPA's

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I use  a george /kuro/ edible blend  

According to George, Methuen should have had 325 inches so far this winter but for some odd reason only 10.5 inches of snow has fallen so far...

[weatherwiz]

We continue to see slight improvements (across all models) with the main features aloft. That continues, at this time, to be the most important aspect overall. While it would be great to see these changes reflected within the surface, that is secondary at this point. If these improvements aloft continue I will bet anything all the models end up converging on a more westward track and we'll see heavier QPF thrown more west than what some models indicate. Just given what we're seeing aloft, IMO the chances of more west are much greater than more east. 

[snowman21]

7 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I'd weigh in the possibility of the at least the Route 7 corridor getting 0.0"

That's the real borderline.

The River valley is probably OK for, at a minimum, an advisory event.

I'm west of 7 by about 10-15 miles. I am bracing for the possibility of just a cloudy day with some flurries. But hey at least we'll have the wind chill to track!

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

what are you talking about

On the forecast page, there is a map, where you can click to get a forecast for that specific location.

Often the snow totals will differ greatly between locations just a few miles away.

[JC-CT]

Does anyone want to hump a french model with me? And yes I do mean weather model.

[WeatherWilly]

8-12 is what they all are going with in RI right now. Still hoping for more but we desperately need a legit storm of some kind.

[Westeasterly]

So many pages, so little…Maine.

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

On the forecast page, there is a map, where you can click to get a forecast for that specific location.

Often the snow totals will differ greatly between locations just a few miles away.

Except I clicked around and they don't differ greatly so it seems you made that up in this instance?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Except I clicked around and they don't differ greatly so it seems you made that up in this instance?

It doesn't happen all the time, but it has in the past.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

We continue to see slight improvements (across all models) with the main features aloft. That continues, at this time, to be the most important aspect overall. While it would be great to see these changes reflected within the surface, that is secondary at this point. If these improvements aloft continue I will bet anything all the models end up converging on a more westward track and we'll see heavier QPF thrown more west than what some models indicate. Just given what we're seeing aloft, IMO the chances of more west are much greater than more east. 

Your map looks good 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Westeasterly said:

So many pages, so little…Maine.

moose don't post often

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

It doesn't happen all the time, but it has in the past.

okay, in this case he appears to be mistaken.

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

We continue to see slight improvements (across all models) with the main features aloft. That continues, at this time, to be the most important aspect overall. While it would be great to see these changes reflected within the surface, that is secondary at this point. If these improvements aloft continue I will bet anything all the models end up converging on a more westward track and we'll see heavier QPF thrown more west than what some models indicate. Just given what we're seeing aloft, IMO the chances of more west are much greater than more east. 

Words like this are better and more settling than all the drugs in the world.  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Your map looks good 

Really don't see any reason to deviate from that yet. Obviously there were some concerns thrown in but I stated my reasonings for my map.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Really don't see any reason to deviate from that yet. Obviously there were some concerns thrown in but I stated my reasonings for my map.

Violently agree . To the point of shaking you 

[weatherwiz]

Sure there are surface features (convection, double-barrel low structure) but these are so complex and it's extremely difficult to know if these will materialize or not. There are some instances they do and other instances they don't (even when you have the model agreement). 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Does anyone want to hump a french model with me? And yes I do mean weather model.

you are missing out...it's gotten better 2 runs in a row now.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The ukie is a terrible model

How do you have those shifts close to an event ?

They're all doing that, as performance relates to this particular enigma. 

I'm not sure what is real vs fantasy anymore.   Those with varying wit as to how to interpret /categorize and analyze these models, are actually in a form of information overload.  There's no way to analyze all that is available from just one model, in just 6 hours, before the same buffet's served all over again ...Yet there's like some 8 or 12 sources. 

Yet, every little "tick" ...as the vernacular comes to call them, triggers these response explosions, the thread increases page numbers by 4 or 5 inside of 1/2 hr.  The problem is, there is hyper sensitivity and focus that's beyond the performance of any model really. 

So the disconnect seems to be where fantastic "expectations" are in a disconnect from reality.  These models were not going to show 18" every run, for 7 days... People say they know that... then go along and behave manic anyway -  I think showing 20" every cycle, even at 2 or 3 days lead, when there are run 4 times day, isn't likely to happen.

 

[ineedsnow]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But if you want more bang for your buck, do it in data sparse areas that are upstream. But I don't allocate where the money is going haha.

guess we'll see when the data goes into the models tonight from the atlantic mission.. I wonder if thats why the models were further west last night because they got the extra data from that mission and 12z didnt have any new data?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Really don't see any reason to deviate from that yet. Obviously there were some concerns thrown in but I stated my reasonings for my map.

I missed your map, please paste it again. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I missed your map, please paste it again. 

[HimoorWx]

22 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

These amounts are thru 7 PM on Saturday.  Are we expecting more accumulating snow after that?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

These amounts are thru 7 PM on Saturday.  Are we expecting more accumulating snow after that?

That’s a good point, that’s kind of misleading because most guidance is still snowing after that 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Where do I find the national blended model that TV mets like to use here in Houston?  What does the blend say?  Oh- is the national blended model like the FSU Super Ensemble, where it analyzes past events and model performance and then weights models accordingly?  Do they make clown maps for the national blend?

[TalcottWx]

[JC-CT]

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Oh how I pray but I’m not that bullish.

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I said I would wait to make a decision until 12z today, hopefully the Euro ticks back west....hope your map works for all of us. Biggest "storm" here so far is 7.5". It would be nice with all of this hype to at least top that, but we shall see.

[ROOSTA]

Giving credit to where credit is due
Start with GINX and go from there, give or take a day or two, NAILED!
Pattern recognition. This event was on the playing field back a few weeks with even a thread started. 
As all, most start digging out... here a killing freeze. Wouldn't be surprised reaching the teens, for this climate it has prompted headlines of "extreme cold".