Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I know my way around eastern CT, obviously.

Who the heck goes there? Lol. 

[NorEastermass128]

Oh wow. Fugly is an understatement. 

[WeatherHappens]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

relax relax. we need to all remember who the real enemy is - SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS

and that eastern Mass is the only place in New England that means anything 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Now the overrunning snows are all the way down to DC/RIC

lol, superb run to run continuity from ol' Nammy.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Big discontinuity on this 18z NAM... huge swing from 6z-12z-18z... wouldn't over-react to this

Yeah, we just comment on the runs as they roll out.  Not a forecast.

[RI Rob]

This looks terrible. 

[bristolri_wx]

I would confidently toss this NAM considering how different it is from all other models.  Of course if the other 18z's come in similar trends then we worry.  This concludes my John Madden-like weather model commentary.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

H5 is actually closer to the 0z run.

But there's this area of vorticity out ahead of the trough where it's deciding to place the surface low.

NCEP models are a joke.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

I would confidently toss this NAM considering how different it is from all other models.  Of course if the other 18z's come in similar trends then we worry.  This concludes my John Madden-like weather model commentary.

everyone seems to be using football analogies today lol

[Hoth]

Well, at least when I die I'll achieve total consciousness. So I got that going for me.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

So now it looks like it might pop a secondary low of the coast of SC.

[ineedsnow]

NAM is meh other models are moving east.. I think historic is off the table.. a good storm maybe but not like models were showing before.

[dryslot]

I wonder if some still hold the same thoughts from when 12z run came out about the Nam?

[WeatherWilly]

Oh NAM you wacky little devil

[WinterWolf]

We’re in the messed up storm range of modeling…there’s always a range/time where this happens to every system. This is it. Unfortunately, it lends nothing nor any confidence to the final outcome. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

what was that between 63 and 66?

[Baroclinic Zone]

By 12z Saturday, the trailing s/w finally catches up to the SLP and the low is tugged back W.

[dryslot]

Its just delayed the development and its further east because of holding back that s/w this run, Take that with a grain of salt.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, WeatherWilly said:

Oh NAM you wacky little devil

I mean, this is ICON-level inconsistency.

[NeonPeon]

This NAM is an almost poetic account of everything that could go perfectly wrong with something pretty good.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM is meh other models are moving east.. I think historic is off the table.. a good storm maybe but not like models were showing before.

I think historic left the building about 18 hours ago.  Major for many is still there though.

[NeonPeon]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I mean, this is ICON-level inconsistency.

What's several hundred miles between friends?

[WinterWolf]

GFS will nudge back west at 18z imo. 

[WxFreak11]

The NAM is whacked

[ORH_wxman]

Crazy that the NAM has zero snow in SNE still by 21z on Saturday.

[Brian5671]

from 12-16 inches to nothing in one run

[RI Rob]

We whiff? Lol.

[Ericjcrash]

Jesus. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

This is your LBFS run.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Congrats wallops Island