Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM is dragging the southern stream compared to 12z....so the NAM didn't start a new trend for all 18z guidance.

Neither of those would start at trend at hr84 though so both are filed in the fwiw, which is not much, bucket. I know you know this. We'd like to see the gfs continue to tickle closer in though but not too close to scare SEMA peeps. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Clouds?

Airplanes?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Airplanes?

Hey you posted it laddy

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM is dragging the southern stream compared to 12z....so the NAM didn't start a new trend for all 18z guidance.

Reggie at 84 is like Ray driving on 84 to chase the LBSW .. shaken , erratic, and not good 

[MegaMike]

There are differences between 78' and 05', but I don't have time to describe them at the moment (I'm working, but I'm so distracted!).

I ran semi-high resolution (d1 = 12km. d2 = 4km) WRF simulations for both events and both evaluated pretty/reasonably well:

 

 

[moneypitmike]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Beautiful. 

I have a shaky hand. 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

ggem is the opposite - and amped

There's an 18z GGEM?

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Hey you posted it laddy

comprende now?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

There's an 18z GGEM?

Indeed, goes out to 84 hours on meteocentre

[WeatherHappens]

12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

No, but February 1898 tracked from Palm Beach to Eastport.  That one followed a crazy baroclinic boundary, with all-time cold to the west.

i remember that one!!! and i thought the Jan 1897 one was bad 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

comprende now?

Taking the 84 NAM seriously is reserved for Dendrite 

[Torch Tiger]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just give me a 980's or 970's low as it's passing southeast. Getting anything deeper (especially too intense deepening) and bad things happen. Precip starts to get more banded so while some cash in you need to be lucky and occlusion can happen to rapidly so you choke off the moist inflow and the CCB just shuts off and everything goes to poop. Save the 950's for tropical 

I'd like to see the stronger, more west solutions to keep the wind threat respectable.  this ain't a '78 redux

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Taking the 84 NAM seriously is reserved for Dendrite 

1) lol

2) i just scrolled through a page of discussion on the "PRE" the nam was showing

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Neither of those would start at trend at hr84 though so both are filed in the fwiw, which is not much, bucket. I know you know this. We'd like to see the gfs continue to tickle closer in though but not too close to scare SEMA peeps. 

18z RDPS has low same position as EURO at 84.

[JC-CT]

Plus, people need to remember this when the NAM inevitably cuts over Albany

[Spaizzo]

5 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

There are differences between 78' and 05', but I don't have time to describe them at the moment (I'm working, but I'm so distracted!).

I ran semi-high resolution (d1 = 12km. d2 = 4km) WRF simulations for both events and both evaluated pretty/reasonably well:

 

 

Hey Mark Zinnie is  in CT now maybe he can redo his 05!  

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Indeed, goes out to 84 hours on meteocentre

Looked solid - maybe a bit more amped than 12z?

[JC-CT]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Looked solid - maybe a bit more amped than 12z?

definitely more amped, both at the surface and that it hung back less energy

[ROOSTA]

In '78 it was known as going to be BIG. Not many predicted how BIG. 

[CoastalWx]

The Germans are east again.

[JC-CT]

2 hours ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

JMA:

 

 

I hope everyone realized that these two frames are 24 hours apart.

What it does in between these two positions is rather incredible.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

In '78 it was known as going to be BIG. Not many predicted how BIG. 

Probably because it was forecasted on an Atari 2600 and WWII radar.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

ggem is the opposite - and amped

Lol gotta love it when the two don’t even have the same trend. 
 

Deutschmark went east again. No trends at 18z so far. 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

This one?

 

Everytime I see this, I forget about the USVI part and LOL

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

 

I hope everyone realized that these two frames are 24 hours apart.

What it does in between these two positions is rather incredible.

Was it amazing and real?

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Lol gotta love it when the two don’t even have the same trend. 
 

Deutschmark went east again. No trends at 18z so far. 

I like any model prog that gets the adrenaline going, but that thing is honestly in a bucket with the NAM. It really doesn't handle east coast cyclogenesis very well.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That's the first time I've seen Scooter mention the icon, ever. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

I had the good fortune to meet him and watch the noon newscast in the studio.  I was only a kid of 10 or 12 back then and my mother had to take me in to WBZ.  I had written him a letter which led to the in person meeting.  He told me to study hard and go to the right colleges, the few at the time that had a meteorology curriculum.  I biked on several occasions from my home in Roslindale to his weather shack in N. Weymouth.  He was never there though.

How's that for a weenie...

Great story!  I have a picture of Don and I standing in front of his map circa 1972 but it’s too big to post.

 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Was it amazing and real?

SPECTACULAR

[weatherwiz]

Almost forgot 18z GFS is running. Anthony forgot to remind us...what a slacker