Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Juno, January 25-27, 2015 also.

3 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

February 11-13, 2006 and January 25-27, 2011 also score high on CIPS.

 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Someone show us the members...ensemble that is.

Weather models doesn't want anyone to see it....lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Mocked? I think it’s got some similarities. No more no less. You just start calling people dumb and clueless when they express other thoughts than the box you have yours in 

Dumb? Quote that please.

Clueless, yes...and I apologized to JD. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Runaway says sell like Kooch. 

I mean...there will be the have's which the koochie will be right with but it will be wrong with the have nots. Just hard to broad brush 24-36" across most of the region like it does.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dumb? Quote that please.

Clueless, yes...and I apologized to JD. 

Drew?

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Juno, January 25-27, 2015 also.

 

No thank you for areas SW. I'll take 05/06 & 2011 though.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

Weather models doesn't want anyone to see it....lol

usually slow but not even updating.. might get a different subscription soon

[duncanwxnh]

21 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

...and both were better than any current Boston TV/radio met....

In the old days we didn't have these models to drive us nuts. So many have forgot the science without the machines. I was an intern at Bos NWS the night before the Blizzard of 78 and the Senior I was with HIT the storm 100%. He didn't say 2 feet (because he didn't want to panic the public) but he knew 2-3 feet were coming.  Thank you all btw because I love the 'analysis' comments. But some of these jokes today have had this ole man ROFL ing

[CT Valley Dryslot]

RECON data in for 0z tonight.  The threat is officially real now.

557 
NOUS42 KNHC 251835
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0135 PM EST TUE 25 JANUARY 2022
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JANUARY 2022
         WSPOD NUMBER.....21-056

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION ALONG
       TRACK 65 FOR 28/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
       A. 27/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 01WSC IOP04
       C. 26/1730Z
       D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 
          20.0N 180.0W, 20.0N 155.0W, 40.0N 155.0W, AND 40.0N 180.0W.
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 26/2030Z-27/0230Z
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT
       AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
       PACIFIC FOR THE 28/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:  A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT
       MAY FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
       AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 29/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

$$
WJM

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Drew?

Must be Martinez, the last significant free agent signing by Boston..

[jbenedet]

Wonky look. Warm core? 

 

As much as I like this solution, this doesn't make meteorological sense in January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Drew?

I apologized to him years ago after the game 7 of the 2007 ALCS.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

usually slow but not even updating.. might get a different subscription soon

I really don't use it for much else, But i see SV is adding EPS cyclones so that may have me checkout as well.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

well I took that willimantic 24" and since it is right on the 1.25/1 cutoff line, I used 1.25 qpf. 19:1, what did I screw up?

Text output better than graphics. 1.46

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I apologized to him years ago after the game 7 of the 2007 ALCS.

The $14 million grand slam....it was actually game 6 BTW (still an elimination game as it was)

[Go Kart Mozart]

I think too much is made of the wind=sand concept.  I can remember excellent snow growth during March 1993, and the Cleveland Super Bomb.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, duncanwxnh said:

In the old days we didn't have these models to drive us nuts. So many have forgot the science without the machines. I was an intern at Bos NWS the night before the Blizzard of 78 and the Senior I was with HIT the storm 100%. He didn't say 2 feet (because he didn't want to panic the public) but he knew 2-3 feet were coming.  Thank you all btw because I love the 'analysis' comments. But some of these jokes today have had this ole man ROFL ing

...and that was a good thing...same goes for future cast which for the most part has replaced real forecasting by TV mets...

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Wonky look. Warm core? 

 

As much as I like this solution, this doesn't make meteorological sense in January.

Seen a lot of these in Jan

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I really don't use it for much else, But i see SV is adding EPS cyclones so that may have me checkout as well.

WB is better, better on mobile...but costs a tick more. 

[Connecticut Appleman]

EPS mean really stretched east by cluster that blows by Nova Scotia.  Otherwise significant number of members west of the mean

[ROOSTA]

Grew-up watching Jack Chase and Don Kent. Kent lived in N. Wey. Stood-out in the neighborhood because he had an anemometer rooftop. I once tried to visit him, must have been a bad day. Told me to screw! LOL The first true meteorologist, a giant, pioneer for many who followed. 
In his illustrious words. "Friday will be a weather breeder day."    

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think Ginxy is using Cobb there.

Yes

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The $14 million grand slam....it was actually game 6 BTW (still an elimination game as it was)

I hesitated in questioning that, as I knew you would be all over it hahaha

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

WB is better, better on mobile...but costs a tick more. 

I know, I had it before, But i use 3 vendors and have to cut cost    lol

[dryslot]

Out to hr 102

[George001]

I have a question, wasnt the Boxing Day blizzard a Miller A? I would think Feb 2013 would be a better analog because it’s a Miller B.

[tiger_deF]

Since no one has actually posted the EPS ensemble mean, here's my artistic interpretation inspired by some of the takes I've heard

 

EDIT: 2 posts late....

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Seen a lot of these in Jan

You can buy, I'll sell. If it happens to be right that will increase uncertainty "chaos" with regard to the H500 capture. We won't know until inside 24 hrs, nevermind 96.

to me the surface reflection is ~100 miles west at that hour, and there is no warm occlusion/core.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

Wait’ll the NAM gets the memo on this thing in nearer terms.  You’ll be shoveling 45” off the charts to find the state lines …

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I know, I had it before, But i use 3 vendors and have to cut cost    lol

Lol The addiction requires some semblance of self control.