Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Lots of abbreivations have emerged that I don't know.  LBSW?

Load. Blown. South. West.

Then there is LBRF which is Load. Blown. Rays. Face. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Lots of abbreivations have emerged that I don't know.  LBSW?

Load blown southwest. It’s his own saying where southwest of him gets the real goods. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS slays all.

Like this?

 

[Cold Miser]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Mood swings every model run.

 

13 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Welcome to the board!

By noon it will be showing as a fish storm and weenies will be planning their swan dives off of the Tobin.

[tiger_deF]

Some of these EPS members get in the 940's, when's the last time we've had a winter system that deep?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ray have a therapy session with Dr Phil?  my god, losing his shit over model runs left and right.

Ya the poor guy is a complete wreck on this. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Seeing H5 closing off south of LI on the 0z run follows the theory that it tends to happen further south then modeled, Would rather see that further north really.

That’s what FXWX pointed out to Raymond yesterday. Usually this happens south of LI

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Like Ray said, gotta watch for trends of LBSW

LBSW is my largest concern.....even a track over SE MA, I can deal with...that replaces deformation with low level fornto. I don't care to jackpot.....I just can't stomach being another regional minimum for like the 36th consecutive event. If this goes LBSW, I hope it cuts over SNE. Last thing I want is a LBSW that remains frigid and pins the low level fronto down in Duxbury.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Feel better after seeing overnights runs.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

Some of these EPS members get in the 940's, when's the last time we've had a winter system that deep?

Never. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

Some of these EPS members get in the 940's, when's the last time we've had a winter system that deep?

I believe it was never. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Feel better after seeing overnights runs.

Yah... I think it is still looking like a good event for many/most on here

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s what FXWX pointed out to Raymond yesterday. Usually this happens south of LI

Yes, he did explain that idea well yesterday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s what FXWX pointed out to Raymond yesterday. Usually this happens south of LI

I never disputed that it would trend that way. You are misunderstanding. In fact, I said I expected some LBSW runs, but I think it will tic a bit later with capture right at the last moment.

[dryslot]

Blowing up that hr 114 panel of the 06z EPS, There is only those 3 east members that take the low east of the GOM which is a real good sign to get crushed and there's some doozy's in there to.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yah... I think it is still looking like a good event for many/most on here

Yes, I think that’s biggest takeaway of all. A region wide beating. Even multi regions look to be affected. That’s nice to see. 

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never disputed that it would trend that way. You are misunderstanding. In fact, I said I expected some LBSW runs, but I think it will tic a bit later with capture right at the last moment.

02/13 did.

[EastonSN+]

Took from another thread.

I love keeping that 6 inch line out to western NJ.

Buffer!

[CoastalWx]

Yeah some signs this slows east of the Cape. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

02/13 did.

Well, like Will said...that actually captured as modeled, but stalled later. It was Juno that captured later, which is the best analog....my point is that usually these Miller Bs either stall and/or capture a bit later at the last moment.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Eps is a dream here 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never disputed that it would trend that way. You are misunderstanding. In fact, I said I expected some LBSW runs, but I think it will tic a bit later with capture right at the last moment.

Don’t worry brother. LBRF runs are a coming.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

02/13 did.

2/13 fit everybody.  That was a fabulous storm. Hopefully this ends up distributing the snow similar to how that did. 

[dendrite]

32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interesting that IT is usually the one who tends to hold energy back. 

I think some of these old perceived biases need to die. These models get so many updates and upgrades now that it’s difficult to apply biases from 15-20 yrs ago to today. I know many still believe in them, but I’d need to see some kind of research to be convinced. Just my $0.02. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some signs this slows east of the Cape. 

The good ones do that. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, like Will said...that actually captured as modeled, but stalled later. I was Juno that captured later, which is the best analog....my point is that usually these Miller Bs either stall and/or capture a bit later at the last moment.

No idea when Juno was, I hate names.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t worry brother. LBRF results runs are a coming.

I think these trends are good insurance for you....makes it less likely you get JUNOed even if it kicks a bit late.

[NorEastermass128]

EPS is a dream. We snow. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Eps is a dream here 

It’s a great solution for just about everybody…we take. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, like Will said...that actually captured as modeled, but stalled later. I was Juno that captured later, which is the best analog....my point is that usually these Miller Bs either stall and/or capture a bit later at the last moment.

We don't talk about Juno