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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Holy weenie GFS run.  So we have the models that blew day 3 on the coastal, cold and snowy, and the model that nailed the coastal north and toasty. Maybe we get a reverse because this is an overrunning situation. Weenie deep thoughts brought to you by Blizzard 13% IPA  and the Epicosity bar where every order of  Blizzard beer comes with a free foot long.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy weenie GFS run.  So we have the models that blew day 3 on the coastal, cold and snowy, and the model that nailed the coastal north and toasty. Maybe we get a reverse because this is an overrunning situation. Weenie deep thoughts brought to you by Blizzard 13% IPA  and the Epicosity bar where every order of  Blizzard beer comes with a free foot long.

 

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m sure there’s been times, but I cannot recall a storm like this that went from rain to heavy icing. We’ve seen rain to sleet obviously, but I just don’t remember any that stayed as zr after starting as rain

Yea not a usual path. I remember one in 83 when I worked in  SCT. Went from 40s rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow. Had a horrible ride home. My buddy hit a tree and broke his ankle. Only reason I remember it was he was our star point guard on our YMCA team lol.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea not a usual path. I remember one in 83 when I worked in  SCT. Went from 40s rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow. Had a horrible ride home. My buddy hit a tree and broke his ankle. Only reason I remember it was he was our star point guard on our YMCA team lol.

I think it would be difficult to hold onto long term icing except in a very narrow zone... the boundary needs to stall out and I'd think the depth of the cold would try to keep getting deeper north of the boundary pushing p-type to sleet.  Rain, briefer ZR, then a bunch of sleet seems like it would be the path except for maybe a narrow battle ground?

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m sure there’s been times, but I cannot recall a storm like this that went from rain to heavy icing. We’ve seen rain to sleet obviously, but I just don’t remember any that stayed as zr after starting as rain

1998 did in VT, started above freezing but cold air drained in under the warmer air, exp in the Champlain Valley, flipping it to freezing rain for the heavier precip

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/IceStorm1998.pdf

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27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy weenie GFS run.  So we have the models that blew day 3 on the coastal, cold and snowy, and the model that nailed the coastal north and toasty. Maybe we get a reverse because this is an overrunning situation. Weenie deep thoughts brought to you by Blizzard 13% IPA  and the Epicosity bar where every order of  Blizzard beer comes with a free foot long.

I’ll always contend the euro sucked in that close range. 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I’ll always contend the euro sucked in that close range. 

Yeah I thought that was sort of a win for the GFS.  The EURO was trying to bring a monster slug of 1" QPF (like the NAM) in 6 hours all the way into your area and central Mass on a couple of those runs.  It even had a run with like 0.40" QPF back here.

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I thought that was sort of a win for the GFS.  The EURO was trying to bring a monster slug of 1" QPF (like the NAM) in 6 hours all the way into your area and central Mass on a couple of those runs.  It even had a run with like 0.40" QPF back here.

 

3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

It had the right idea in the 2-4 day time period, but it went from like 2.2" qpf here to 1" in 1 or 2 runs in the last 36hr. 

I just hated the 2 run flinch 00z and 06z Friday. It was trying to taint SE MA and deform WNE to my area. I mean SE SNE was modeled for a dumping either way whether it be coastal front, deform, etc, but the Euro made for a lot of bad forecasts west of DAW-ORH-IJD. 

But like I said to Will, they all struggled at times. 

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