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Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.


Ginx snewx
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29 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How many of those snow maps have you posted since November???....and how many storms  have produced the snow shown on those maps???....The "batting" average is well below the Mendoza line...

It’s only 5 days out from the storm. This is different, also it’s the best model there is. If anything these maps are underselling the potential of this storm, if it verifies like the Euro says the snow ratios will be much higher than 10 to 1. With the storm last week the models had my area getting 4-6 inches or so, but I got a foot due to the snow ratios being much higher than 10:1. The QPF the euro is projecting is expected to be around double what it was for that storm, and the low is expected to be stronger. If the Euro is correct, due to the frigid temps in the upper levels and the optimal snow growth soundings this would really end up being like 16-20 inches of snow for eastern mass. 

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

How did today work out? Did you get those 600 miles in east ticks to make this a nice snower?

I think this is less about people being pessimistic and more about people willfully burying their head in the sand because they don’t like what they see.

We get it, there is potential. I think people are sick of shoveling delusion and potential this year though. It’s the end of January, it’s getting tiresome.

No, we’re sick of you’re whining. 
 

Bro, you need to take a break! Please. You’re way off base here. Nobody was or is saying anything. We showed the euro run. That’s all. You need to go hit some golf balls somewhere.  We don’t need the sorry ass whimpering from you every single potential. God what a Sally! 
 

Edit: And who’s burying their head? The run looked great. Nothing not to like with that run. So again, your point is amiss.  And, Nobody thinks carved in stone either. 

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33 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Tasty

ecmwf-deterministic-east-z250_speed-2842000.thumb.png.fc5b1093ed29165a1a8d18d823e7706f.png

It is delicious looking ...

There's a classic entrance region to the upper air jet over central New England, and the exit region of the 500 mb ( echoed by the 250 above), kissing its ass off the Mid Atlantic. 

Those two fluid mechanical aspects correlate well to strong surface low pressure genesis in that region, due to causing UVM over a broad area.  Enter, that is a climatologic region there along/astride the MA, because that's where the polar continental air meets the ocean and all that.. 

Add in that at the surface, at that time, that zone is being enhanced, with a very cold air mass lingering over New England and the eastern OV ... tucking down into the regions of PHL or so... that means there is a strong llv frontal boundary extending NEward of the coast. That feature would set up a steeply elevating frontal interface - ah... it just makes the rising air do so more efficiently...which lowers the pressure beneath...etc.

Lot of synoptic signals there within that frame going for it.. 

The problem is what is happening outside, and if that frame can even evolve to a state where those goodies can take place at all.   This is actually day 5.5 really ... Not hugely absurd to be handled but still just outside the Euro's wheelhouse.

I wen all the way back to hour 24 ... it appears this system's sensitivity isn't coming from the normal uncertainty Pacific.  The contributing mechanics are all over western/NW Canada already, and also ejecting from the SW ... over time, there is modest phasing over the western MV, around 96 hours ... eventually it curls around and does it's thing along the EC. The bottom of that trough is attempting to pinch off from a positive aspect..  Basically, it all comes down to that immense engineering feat by the Euro that takes the next 4 days while over the continent.   Doesn't lend to confidence.

 

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

How did today work out? Did you get those 600 miles in east ticks to make this a nice snower?

I think this is less about people being pessimistic and more about people willfully burying their head in the sand because they don’t like what they see.

We get it, there is potential. I think people are sick of shoveling delusion and potential this year though. It’s the end of January, it’s getting tiresome.

Just last week we had a nice storm with 6-12 for most of the area, some areas even got 14-15 inches. This storm we just had was our second threat and it didn’t work out for us. It happens, not every threat can pan out, but the pattern is still very good. 

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26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh… get ready for the rug pull 

It seems we have to deal with dual lows on almost every system.  Here we go again.  Back to chasing that eastward convection, lol.  How soon that happens will determine how much we get.  This run of the Euro op looks good, but a long ways to go...

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right - that's what I was suspecting .... trend -

My sense there ... if this is going to be the focus, such that the 22nd "winds" vs the 24th  ( like I said and maintain, not likely to get both done due to wave interference), it will get "less stressing to believability" by becoming a more and more dominant lead trough - it'd start to emerge that way going forward.. 

That whole positive sloped L/W that pinches off routine, seldom is handled well .. nor occurs very often.

I mentioned earlier, usually when we are caught in limbo between to waves in the guidance, ... one or the other tends to become dominant and the other becomes nothin'    They can also interfere and nothing that way. But cross the bridge -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My sense there ... if this is going to be the focus, such that the 22nd "winds" vs the 24th  ( like I said and maintain, not likely to get both done due to wave interference), it will get "less stressing to believability" but becoming a more and more dominant lead trough. 

That whole positive sloped L/W that pinches off routine, seldom is handled well .. nor occurs very often.

I mentioned earlier, usually when we are caught in limbo between to waves in the guidance, ... one or the other tends to become dominant and the other becomes nothin'    They can also interfere and nothing that way. But cross the bridge -

Is it possible we get both if the 24th wave slows down a bit to increase the wave spacing?

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Is it possible we get both if the 24th wave slows down a bit to increase the wave spacing?

I dunno, maybe....   I mean what would cause that to happen?   I don't see any mechanism for that, and in fact ...the flow being of canvased progressive in character, lends to these features maintaining their procession space - the flow is not going to accordion like that.

It's more likely to have one or the other just end up too weak ( or weak enough) such that it doesn't interfere with the other.

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42 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

How did today work out? Did you get those 600 miles in east ticks to make this a nice snower?

I think this is less about people being pessimistic and more about people willfully burying their head in the sand because they don’t like what they see.

We get it, there is potential. I think people are sick of shoveling delusion and potential this year though. It’s the end of January, it’s getting tiresome.

I find it interesting how taking a cautious and realistic approach is categorized as being whiny/negative. ....same thing happens in sports.  I can't tell you how many times I have cautioned someone about making snap decisions on players..... Last week Eric Fisher said something like "it's 5-6  days out, the model runs are going to change 100 times"... 

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The are way more horrible models than the Euro. Many of them are posted here multiple times a day too. The Euro is one of the best. People can debate if there is a better model than it based on various criteria. It doesn’t matter. The Euro is a good model either way. The GFS has gotten better though and started to win some of the battles. It wasn’t that long ago where the Euro saying no pretty much meant no. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The setup again looks tenuous at first with a shit positive tilted trough, but then curls left and up lol with the nrn stream s/w behind it. Why not? :lol: 

Yeah trying to pull a mini-version what just happened only further east. 

I still want to see more guidance on board. 

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32 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

We probably should wait 3 or so cycles and see if the trend continues/consolidates on the ensembles, then become more invested

I agree....hopefully my agreement isn't being too negative for some individuals....

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  • Ginx snewx changed the title to Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.
  • ORH_wxman unpinned this topic

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