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Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Talked about that all day yesterday and the 00z runs did little to help unfortunately...

wave space contentions plague the late mid/ext range, muddling/obscuring whatever signals are out there. 

The best fit is still the 24th... but, the 22nd is still in play.   There is an ambrosia of different aspects that leap out for me:

-- typically in a two+ wave contention scenario out in time, one or the other will emerge as the main player in future cycles. This is more complex than just that, because the 22nd has different causal roots than a would-be 24th.

-- the evolution of the flow from south the Alaska to the Maritime of Canada evolves to be gradient rich. The compression that implies is not allowing anything to manifest from the NP-OV-MA/NE-Maritime of Canada, per the 00z cycle, in either of the operational Euro/GFS.  I am not sure that is right ... it may be.  This is a separate matter to the first bullet above.  It represents a large scale vs smaller scale, negative interference ... a commonly found attribute in recent winters frankly but won't get into that - ...  I have found that events can "hide" in the hurried maelstrom of those types of latter mid range flow constructs, but start emerging over future cycles as fast movers. 

-- yet, I will add another aspect...  

image.png.47bf0757c999a829b8f120ac5f7bf43f.png

Those are top down, the EPS, GEFS and GEPS means, and they mature coherent +PNA --> +PNAP flow structure, a modulation that typically precedes storm genesis over eastern N/A.

The reason I've been leaning more 24th is that timing above lands on 23rd, and the next day in all these, that trough subtending through the Lakes amplifies pretty smartly down stream of that obvious +PNA flex.  The scaffold of the hemisphere is thus favoring the 24th - however, there are small systems that can materialize that are not anchored in such larger scaled modalities.  The 00z Euro's 22nd is one such suggestion... it more than less squirts out ahead of that larger cog work.  Those are trickier to gauge out in time, particularly in fast flows that are compressing below an elephant's ass of an SPV.

 

 

 

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40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

Full disclosure...I am probably going to come completely unhinged if this next one doesn't work out for my area. I've been trying to remain rational, and keep turning the page, but that one may do it.

OceanStWx
OceanStWx
ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

At least when Tip started threads, the events actually happen. 

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Talked about that all day yesterday and the 00z runs did little to help unfortunately...

wave space contentions plague the late mid/ext range, muddling/obscuring whatever signals are out there. 

The best fit is still the 24th... but, the 22nd is still in play.   There is an ambrosia of different aspects that leap out for me:

-- typically in a two+ wave contention scenario out in time, one or the other will emerge as the main player in future cycles. This is may be more complex than just that, because the 22nd has different causal roots than a would-be 24th.

-- the evolution of the flow from south the Alaska to the Maritime of Canada evolves to be gradient rich. The compression that implies is not allowing anything to manifest from the NP-OV-MA/NE-Maritime of Canada, per the 00z cycle, in either of the operational Euro/GFS.  I am not sure that is right ... it may be.  This is a separate matter to the first bullet above.  It represents a large scale vs smaller scale, negative interference ... a commonly found attribute in recent winters frankly but won't get into that - ...  I have found that events can "hide" in the hurried maelstrom of those types of latter mid range flow constructs, but start emerging over future cycles as fast movers. 

-- yet, I will add another aspect...  

image.png.47bf0757c999a829b8f120ac5f7bf43f.png

Those are top down, the EPS, GEFS and GEPS means, and they mature coherent +PNA --> +PNAP flow structure, a modulation that typically precedes storm genesis over eastern N/A.

The reason I've been leaning more 24th is that timing above lands on 23rd, and the next day in all these, that trough subtending through the Lakes amplifies pretty smartly down stream of that obvious +PNA flex.  The scaffold of the hemisphere is thus favoring the 24th - however, there are small systems that can materialize that are not anchored in such larger scaled modalities.  The 00z Euro's 22nd is one such suggestion... it more than less squirts out ahead of that larger cog work.  Those are trickier to gauge out in time, particularly in fast flows that are compressing below an elephant's ass of an SPV.

 

 

 

Your time frame shows colder temps as well( for now), we watch......thanks Tip

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS trying for 1/22-23 but a little wide right on the mean. You can see plenty of westward members though. 
 

 

957E0319-3DFD-4967-AAAC-567D64536017.png

B6F1A313-D207-4CF0-8EC6-3D9AE398A32B.png

Yep, definitely an OTS risk but far from decided, there's certainly a decent cluster that likes a benchmark-esque track.

w3AeMzK.gif

wkrekdv.gif

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Yeah.. haha. .. just read the ext. forecast discussion and there headline sums it up nicely!

Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1149 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Jan 20 2022 - 12Z Mon Jan 24 2022 ...Cooled Deep South to East Coast Snow/Ice threats with uncertain wave genesis pattern...

 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Agree, we'd need to see a decent correction for that one - not impossible, but need to see it pretty soon. I was more referring to the 23rd-25th period

Ya I’m thinking the 24th or 25th might be a bit more conducive…but it’s still out there, and modeling is gonna jump around on which one to key in on at this stage obviously. At least it’s active with cold around. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup. But Wave spacing didn’t look to good for this dog shit either..and then it did. The problem is it cut west. 

Yeah well I’m not counting on a repeat of a miraculous phase again to turn this due north. 
 

Euro looks pretty decent at 114h for the 1/22 threat. I’d like to see more guidance jump on it though. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah well I’m not counting on a repeat of a miraculous phase again to turn this due north. 
 

Euro looks pretty decent at 114h for the 1/22 threat. I’d like to see more guidance jump on it though. 

Me neither. The only point was, there’s wave spacing issues way out in time, until there isn’t. Like just now lol. 

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