wolfie09 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I think the front is coming through now or close to it..Wind starting to pick up.. From 6° late last night to 40° currently.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Colder air aloft will also move in tonight, with 850mb temperatures dropping to about -17c by daybreak Thursday. By late evening it should be cold enough for a lake response. This will be best defined off Lake Ontario when a secondary front drops south across the lake late tonight. Expect a band to develop southeast of Lake Ontario tonight as this front sweeps up any available moisture. This band will quickly push south of the lake by daybreak, producing a quick burst of snow with a quick inch or two possible. After this there will not be much moisture available Thursday, with light disorganized lake snows likely southeast of Lake Ontario during the day. Expecting a total of 2-4 inches from Wayne to Oswego counties tonight and Thursday. Some light snow showers possible south of Lake Ontario from Niagara to Monroe counties with accumulation mainly an inch or less. A cold front will track across the region Sunday as a clipper system moves north of New England. Northwest flow behind the front and 850mb temperatures falling to near -14C will yield another round of lake effect snow east/southeast of the Lakes into Monday. This round will be brief as surface high pressure tracks across the central Appalachians. Both the 12z GFS and 12z EC have come to a better agreement that an area of low pressure will track near, if not across the region Monday night into Tuesday. Widespread snow is possible with lake enhancement behind it. There is still question if a southern stream feature may phase with the northern stream as they approach the east coast. Temperatures will remain below normal during the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I think the front is coming through now or close to it..Wind starting to pick up.. From 6° late last night to 40° currently.. Wind has shifted to out of the west/northwest here now. Also has picked up pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 That arctic front should be pretty strong on Sunday. I'd expect a pretty strong Lake enhanced band to drift from north to south. Even low res GFS is showing it, something to watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Snowiest Januarys in Buffalo. Right now we are at 44.6". About to crack the top 10 with 13 days left. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That arctic front should be pretty strong on Sunday. I'd expect a pretty strong Lake enhanced band to drift from north to south. Even low res GFS is showing it, something to watch. Signal for midweek is there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Moon Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I just returned from a jog. It feels fantastic outside; 40 degrees is ideal running weather. The wind's starting to pick up. I could sense it getting colder near the end of my run. Bottom's going to fall out tonight with a low in the mid 10s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Moon Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Good ol' Sizzlecuse. The temp just keeps pumping up and up. Every time I think it's hit its max temp, it goes up another degree. The one thing this city CAN count on to overperform is warmth. I knew when I saw 38 degrees for the high that we would work towards almost the mid 40s. Always 5 degrees warmer. It got up to 43 in Oswego compared to the 37 we expected yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 38 for the high here. I just can't get over how piss poor the lake effect season has been so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Things def will be pick up in terms of precip events once we get close to february as the whole pattern shifts back towards the more canonical nina look. Can see the shift in the pacific start in about 7 days or so. This should allow for a -pna development and more se ridging to form. How strong the pna gets will determine if we benefit or not. The SPV looks to go on roids heading into February and that can also argue against cold air coming south of it couples with troposphere. Main MJO forcing still looks conducive for cold through end of month then it becomes a bit iffier if we see propagation into western IO or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Close to an interesting look from my dumb perspective 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Lots of snow up in the high peaks 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Temperature has fallen into the 20s here. Sidewalks icing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Latest NWS grid forecast for snowfall thru 18z Friday. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/national-digital-forecast-database 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Thanks BGM Just started flurrying Imby, not expecting much tonight, GFS looks solid for Sunday, hoping for better results lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Rgem/Nam will start to get into better range tomorrow.. Pretty similar in the LR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 It sure would be nice if we could get that "clipper" on Tuesday/Wednesday of next week to track SOUTH of us and not over Ontario or a Great Lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Icon has that feature just south of Lake Ontario and GFS is just to the north, obviously still time to figure that one out..At least something to follow besides LES lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Thanks, Wolfie. You can see, as a result, they both keep the banding over Lake Ontario/your location while bringing the dry slot (and rain...see the little specks of green around the glorious Sizzlecuse on the GFS...lol). It's like the never-ending new norm. A day of cold...a bit of lake effect...24 hours later a warm "clipper" that dirties and melts the snow as temps hit 40s. I know many snowmobilers who have just given up riding and selling their sleds because they say it's not worth it with how often conditions are trashed. Next week looks to offer some better chances...but I have also said that before during this winter as well. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The Canadian and Ukie offer several shots throughout the period. I was surprised to see the Ukie picking up on chances for decent lake snows early next week. It doesn't often show lake snows much. As far as tonight, I am a bit skeptical of getting much lake effect here. Just doesn't look like much to work with. I would love to be pleasantly surprised upon waking up though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: The Canadian and Ukie offer several shots throughout the period. I was surprised to see the Ukie picking up on chances for decent lake snows early next week. It doesn't often show lake snows much. As far as tonight, I am a bit skeptical of getting much lake effect here. Just doesn't look like much to work with. I would love to be pleasantly surprised upon waking up though... You were right to be skeptical. Other than the burst of SN we just had, not much overnight...now we freeze... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Woke up this morning and forgot we were scheduled to get a dusting to an inch or two thanks to the storm moving by south of us.Left my house in Middletown and it was coming down light but as I got closer to my warehouse in Florida it was really coming down nicely. Can't ask for much more on a weekday down here with no storms right now. 32-34f observed and so far a dusting in 45 minutes. Looks nice and feels good that's for sure. Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 16 minutes ago, Syrmax said: You were right to be skeptical. Other than the burst of SN we just had, not much overnight...now we freeze... Yup, had a dusting last night and this nice burst of snow this morning. Maaaaybe we'll squeak out an inch. I have become very leery of much snow when hearing or reading "NW winds." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lots of snow up in the high peaks Nice! I know exactly where that sign is. My wife and I did that as a summer hike a couple of years ago. Honestly can't imagine being out there on a deep winter day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yup, had a dusting last night and this nice burst of snow this morning. Maaaaybe we'll squeak out an inch. I have become very leery of much snow when hearing or reading "NW winds." No inch here. Another "heavy dusting", about 1/4"...#352 for the season. This is the business we've chosen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 15 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: That arctic front should be pretty strong on Sunday. I'd expect a pretty strong Lake enhanced band to drift from north to south. Even low res GFS is showing it, something to watch. I’m calling you the great Kreskin of snow predictions. The NWS text this am repeats exactly what you stated regarding the “sneaky” LES opportunity for Saturday night Sunday morning for Buffalo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 19 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Wow, different world up there! What’s your current snow depth? About 22'' , we didn't have much snow on the ground before Monday's storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Been snowing on and off like a SOB here all morning so far. Huge parachute flakes. Been yet every radar i look at shows nothing lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 33 minutes ago, cny rider said: Nice! I know exactly where that sign is. My wife and I did that as a summer hike a couple of years ago. Honestly can't imagine being out there on a deep winter day. Its a different world up there in the winter. I've done 6 winter high peaks so far, hoping to do another 1-2 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 23 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Been snowing on and off like a SOB here all morning so far. Huge parachute flakes. Been yet every radar i look at shows nothing lol. switch your sensitivity. Can see there was a band that went through the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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