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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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December will go down as one of the warmest in recent history for all Upstate recording stations.

December Temps

BUF: +6.5
ROC: +4.4
WAT: +5.1
SYR: +7.3

BING: +5.7

Buf average Dec. temp: 38.1

Buffalos top 3 Dec temps

42.1 (2015)

38.1 (2021)

37.6 (1923)

Buffalo will finish with the 2nd warmest December on record this year and likely the 3rd warmest year on record with last year being #2. Only 2012 was warmer. So in the last 2 years we've had 2 of the top 3 warmest years on record. 

May be an image of text

Snowfall Totals so far:

GSB Cities The 2021 - 2022
Snow Season
Normal Average 
to Date
This Time 
Last Season
Normal
Seasons Average
All Time Season 
Snowfall Record
           
Binghamton 14.1 25.9 51.6 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017)
Rochester 14.0 30.5 11.7 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)
Syracuse 13.7 40.6 14.8 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993)
Buffalo 10.7 34.0 33.8 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977)
Albany 5.5 16.2 27.4 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)

 

Lake temperatures are also near record highs

Surface Water Temp imageSurface Water Temp image

We will finally see the Pacific relax with the record breaking -PNA in the next few weeks and the CFS look very cold with a near perfect pattern for the lakes for January.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gifScreen_Shot_2021-12-31_at_4.11.39_PM.png

This will allow the cold air that was locked away in the Northwest and SW canada to finally be delivered eastward. With January being the coldest month of the year these departures will be impressive.

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

There are several opportunties for snowfall the next 10 days and the long range outlook looks quite good for winter lovers

The first event will start tonight into tomorrow morning with a general 2-4" followed by some lake effect snow for those along the Lake Ontario shoreline

NE_Snow.png

There will be a brief warmup Tues/Weds and then a arctic front will go through in the middle of the week. This will lead to a brief window of LES for both lakes.

The Canadian would lead to lake snow warnings for East/northeast of the lakes with a very impressive event on Thursday/Friday, the other models show LES but not nearly as strong

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

Following this we have to watch a window next weekend for a potent synoptic event.

The OP Euro is the farthest SE with the GEM/GFS farther NW

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png


Looking even further out here are the EPS Ensembles for next 2-3 weeks

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611eeeec630aa28371e30

 

Good luck to all and may the wind direction forever be in your favor. :snowwindow:

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Many expect it to get warmer the last 2 weeks of January but so far the long range GEFS and GPS don't show that. It continues the great pattern. The best part of that ENS suite is the PV on our side of the globe. Taking everything in I expect all of us to have a below average temp January and above average snowfall. It even has "epic" potential IF the models are correct.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Here, I’ll post it for you. image.thumb.png.2db965b878bf596a529aab814748a94d.png

Thanks, although I am not sure why you posted it? I said I liked the look of it. I saw it already. :) Maybe to show it's not showing downsloping? Many of the models are suggesting it, so it's just something to possibly be prepared for in a very localized area.

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks, although I am not sure why you posted it? I said I liked the look of it. I saw it already. :) Maybe to show it's not showing downsloping? Many of the models are suggesting it, so it's just something to possibly be prepared for in a very localized area.

It was completely passive aggressive. It’s my New Years resolution- just puke up all the nasty shit I think. 
No but seriously, mention a map- post a map. 

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24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It was completely passive aggressive. It’s my New Years resolution- just puke up all the nasty shit I think. 
No but seriously, mention a map- post a map. 

I almost always post the maps I discuss, but don't want to clog the sub with even more maps. So I am intentionally NOT posting every map I mention.

Don't make that your New Years Resolution. We already have enough people puking up nasty things all over social media.

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5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Hwrfs look great. 

Screenshot_20220101-095504_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20220101-095538_Samsung Internet.jpg

I think the NWS is putting too much weight in icing occurring. Every one of these models is 4+” of accumulation through the 90 corridor north.  One of two things is happening, IMHO is that the NWS is afraid to buy in to the lake enhancement or the system itself…either way looking upstream I’m not seeing much in the way of icing or mixing.

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think the NWS is putting too much weight in icing occurring. Every one of these models is 4+” of accumulation through the 90 corridor north.  One of two things is happening, IMHO is that the NWS is afraid to buy in to the lake enhancement or the system itself…either way looking upstream I’m not seeing much in the way of icing or mixing.

I agree. I don't blame them for being extra cautious. Many of the events this year have underperformed. I was a bit amused with BGM's Winter Weather Advisory for their CNY counties...but it gives a head's up to holiday travelers and can be adjusted up or down pretty easily. My little area actually has the best chance of their entire area to have the most wintry outcome.

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9 minutes ago, tim123 said:

I think nws is sleeping and being lazy to be honest. Not a huge storm at all but reading there write up is just horrible. Still saying 1 to 3 inches. 

That’s not  even the laziest! The new girl on the local WIVB station here is calling for 1-2”

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