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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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I've finished my analysis of Buffalo air surface temperatures, using all available data. The coldest decade was the 1830s with a mean temperature of 45.7F, albeit with only 2 years of data. The warmest decade is the 2020s with a mean temperature of 51.1F, albeit with only 3 years of data. The coldest decade with full data is the 1880s with a mean temperature of 46.2F. The warmest decade with full data is the 2010s with a mean temperature of 49.4F.

image.png.2cb98c74c43314689c1eb07a51d82db2.png

A linear approximation for the warming in annual temperature is 1.6F per century over the period from 1830 to the present, with an r-squared value of 0.2776. There are significant seasonal variations in the rate of warming, ranging from no change in January to a rate of 3.0F per century in the month of May.

image.png.e71043b6d8230f00c370c918210a5492.png

Twenty coldest and twenty warmest years on record:

image.png.d106eb5cb3aace77df1f84e8be05794f.png

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As part of the analysis for Buffalo, I am also examining water temperature data for the Buffalo water intake crib, which dates back to 1927. The lake water temperature at Buffalo is warming somewhat faster than the surface air temperature. The largest changes are in the spring, and associated with earlier loss of ice from the east end of Lake Erie. The mean water temperature in the month of May has warmed about 4 degrees over the last century, per a linear approximation. As you can tell by some of the outliers, there used to be periods where this part of the lake was covered in ice deep into May (such as 1936 & 1971), but that does not happen anymore.

The water temperature analysis is not yet complete, but the May scatter plot with linear trend line is shown below.

image.png.9e4bea9dbf21810070faad3cd24aafcb.png

 

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And I have finished my analysis of water temperature readings at the Buffalo water intake crib (30' depth) from 1927 to the present.

The water temperature off Buffalo is warming at 1.87F/century, with an r-squared value of 0.1706.

image.png.808a9f2284ce80b8e71eba87527503f8.png

The twenty warmest and twenty coldest years (as measured by annual mean water temperature) are as follows:

image.thumb.png.b5f5b69648c59d009a01ce2b5735aba0.png

The decadal mean water temperatures:

image.png.b967674803679e2d49b75bd12a4f28c2.png

This pattern closely mimics the annual mean air temperature at Buffalo, although water temperatures tend to run about 1.5-2 degrees warmer than the corresponding air temperatures. This is likely because the water temperature cannot drop below 32F, so they tend to run warmer in the winter - especially during cold winters.

For comparison, the decadal annual mean surface air temperatures at Buffalo are given below:

image.png

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On 5/6/2023 at 5:28 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

And I have finished my analysis of water temperature readings at the Buffalo water intake crib (30' depth) from 1927 to the present.

The water temperature off Buffalo is warming at 1.87F/century, with an r-squared value of 0.1706.

image.png.808a9f2284ce80b8e71eba87527503f8.png

The twenty warmest and twenty coldest years (as measured by annual mean water temperature) are as follows:

image.thumb.png.b5f5b69648c59d009a01ce2b5735aba0.png

The decadal mean water temperatures:

image.png.b967674803679e2d49b75bd12a4f28c2.png

This pattern closely mimics the annual mean air temperature at Buffalo, although water temperatures tend to run about 1.5-2 degrees warmer than the corresponding air temperatures. This is likely because the water temperature cannot drop below 32F, so they tend to run warmer in the winter - especially during cold winters.

For comparison, the decadal annual mean surface air temperatures at Buffalo are given below:

image.png

Just to highlight how robust these trends are, here is a comparison to observed surface air temperatures from 1927 to the present. One correction: the air temperature is rising slightly faster than the water temperature [2.1F per century for air, 1.9F per century for the lake temperature].

image.png.478af95ce1f29d4a67c10202bc894560.png

Top twenty coldest and top twenty warmest years (1927-2022):

image.png.da8a6495af049022352a667f48701f6d.png

Looking at the top ten coldest Crib water temperature years, we can see there is a very strong correlation between air temperature and the nearby Lake Erie water temperature. The correlation is slightly less for the coldest years and I think that is because a cold spring and cold summer are more important for determining the water temperature ranking. For air temperature, the opposite is true - winters have more variability and can really build up large temperature deficits.  Conversely, for the water temperature reading, it is not physically possible for it fall below 32F. So even the very coldest winters do not see the water temperatures drop below 32F. That's why years with cold summers [e.g., 1982 & 1992] are able to punch above their weight on the water temperature ranking. Even so, six of the ten coldest water temperature years are also among the top ten coldest air temperature years over the same time period.

For the warm water years, the correlation is almost 1:1, because those years are mostly open water so these ice dynamics don't come into play. Among the warm water years, 9 of the top 10 [12 years, due to 3-way tie for 10th place] are also in the top ten for air surface temperature. The others are 12th, 14th, and 14th.

Coldest Years [air temperature rank in fourth column)

image.png.9dece39ecdc7b94d3750f2c5a27ee9be.png

Warmest years [air temperature rank in fourth column]

 

image.png.0ea6dd496df5d5a066ba01dd23fc70ef.png

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  • 5 months later...

As winter season picks up just want everyone to know here that we have migrated over to discord. If you would like an invite, please send me a PM. We're almost at 100 people that joined and over 10 being meteorologists. Anyone in the great lakes, ontario, and upstate new york are welcomed. Lots of lake effect discussion to be had with posters living all over the main snow belts in New York. :)

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Discord

Not sure why the move to discord other then to gatekeep. I was never really a active poster on here but I would come at least once a day to read all the new posts and I'm sure I wasn't the only one.

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35 minutes ago, Vicarious said:

Not sure why the move to discord other then to gatekeep. I was never really a active poster on here but I would come at least once a day to read all the new posts and I'm sure I wasn't the only one.

I'm not from the region but kind of in the ohio snow belt east of Cleveland  and enjoyed reading the discussions here as well 

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On 1/10/2024 at 1:52 PM, Vicarious said:

Not sure why the move to discord other then to gatekeep. I was never really an active poster on here but I would come at least once a day to read all the new posts and I'm sure I wasn't the only one.

We left due to the moderators here. We’re more active than ever on discord. About 1000 posts just today. The interface and accessibility is 100 times better than forums are. If anyone wants an invite, feel free to PM me. I don’t think there is anyone that wants to move back here that moved to discord. 
 

If you don’t want to join, you guys are more than welcome to continue discussing here. 

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Buffalo saw the temperature fall below 20° for the first time this winter. That was the latest first teens on record. The old record was set on January 3, 2016 and tied on January 3, 2022. Buffalo's record 322-day streak with temperatures at or above 20° also came to an end.

image.png.ff85cc029b0be8be1a3cbeb42f591138.png

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