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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Grim discussion in the long range from Binghamton:

 

Our region continues to see a lack arctic high pressure systems
overall. These high pressure systems would have the potential to
shift the storm track further south, more favorably for snow.
The MJO looks to move into phases 2 and 3 which promote warmer
temperatures in mid to late January and storm tracks from the
southwest into the Great Lakes similar to this upcoming week. So
the possibility of the least snowiest January on record at
Binghamton (current snow 0.4 and the record 6.8 inches in 1973)
continues to be very real.
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Finally some active weather moving into New York!  Everyone here went to discord. If anyone would like an invite in the Ontario/New York corridor send me a PM for invite link. We have a really active ontario crew in our channel now, as our weather is pretty similar to theirs. We're up to 77 members that joined.

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Always interesting to do this exercise... looked at changes in March average high temperatures from 1871-1900, compared to the most recent complete 13 years (2010-2022) in the Great Lakes subforum. Decided to do the same to a few spots in our subforum.

Buffalo, New York

1874-1900: 37.3F

2010-2022: 43.4F (+6.1F)

Rochester, New York

1872-1900: 37.6F

2010-2022: 44.6F (+7.0F)

Erie, Pennsylvania

1874-1900: 40.3F

2010-2022: 45.2F (+4.9F)

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

1875-1900: 47.6F

2010-2022: 50.8F (+3.2F)

Keep in mind at Pittsburgh, this is comparing downtown records (elevation: 780-800 feet) to airport records (elevation: 1200 feet), and about 15 miles northwest, which hides a lot of the warming trend.

Based on the numbers, the March climate in Buffalo and Rochester during the late 19th century is about on par with recent (2010-2022) March weather in International Falls [37.4F mean] and Duluth, Minnesota [37.1F mean] and just about 2.5-3F warmer than Caribou, Maine [34.8F] - which is to say the 19th century March climate in Buffalo and Rochester is significantly closer to the modern March climate in Caribou, Maine than it is to the current climate at either location. 

I think this last point kind of serves to bring home the scope of the changes we are creating. Often times, this reality is lost in the focus on the numbers. But when you point to a concrete modern equivalent for those numbers, it really showcases how dramatically things have changed. Places like Duluth, International Falls and Caribou, Maine are thought of as unbelievably cold. Yet, many cities in in the lower Great Lakes saw comparable early spring temperatures to what those locations experience today.

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7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Always interesting to do this exercise... looked at changes in March average high temperatures from 1871-1900, compared to the most recent complete 13 years (2010-2022) in the Great Lakes subforum. Decided to do the same to a few spots in our subforum.

Buffalo, New York

1874-1900: 37.3F

2010-2022: 43.4F (+6.1F)

Rochester, New York

1872-1900: 37.6F

2010-2022: 44.6F (+7.0F)

Erie, Pennsylvania

1874-1900: 40.3F

2010-2022: 45.2F (+4.9F)

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

1875-1900: 47.6F

2010-2022: 50.8F (+3.2F)

Keep in mind at Pittsburgh, this is comparing downtown records (elevation: 780-800 feet) to airport records (elevation: 1200 feet), and about 15 miles northwest, which hides a lot of the warming trend.

Based on the numbers, the March climate in Buffalo and Rochester during the late 19th century is about on par with recent (2010-2022) March weather in International Falls [37.4F mean] and Duluth, Minnesota [37.1F mean] and just about 2.5-3F warmer than Caribou, Maine [34.8F] - which is to say the 19th century March climate in Buffalo and Rochester is significantly closer to the modern March climate in Caribou, Maine than it is to the current climate at either location. 

I think this last point kind of serves to bring home the scope of the changes we are creating. Often times, this reality is lost in the focus on the numbers. But when you point to a concrete modern equivalent for those numbers, it really showcases how dramatically things have changed. Places like Duluth, International Falls and Caribou, Maine are thought of as unbelievably cold. Yet, many cities in in the lower Great Lakes saw comparable early spring temperatures to what those locations experience today.

Another way to look at this is to compare locations today to places in the south in the past.

Pittsburgh's average March high from 2010-2022 at 50.8F, is 0.6F warmer than Washington, D.C.'s average March high from 1872-1900 [50.2F]. By comparison, Washington, D.C.'s average March high in the most recent 13 years has been 57.6F.

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4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Always interesting to do this exercise... looked at changes in March average high temperatures from 1871-1900, compared to the most recent complete 13 years (2010-2022) in the Great Lakes subforum. Decided to do the same to a few spots in our subforum.

Buffalo, New York

1874-1900: 37.3F

2010-2022: 43.4F (+6.1F)

Rochester, New York

1872-1900: 37.6F

2010-2022: 44.6F (+7.0F)

Erie, Pennsylvania

1874-1900: 40.3F

2010-2022: 45.2F (+4.9F)

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

1875-1900: 47.6F

2010-2022: 50.8F (+3.2F)

Keep in mind at Pittsburgh, this is comparing downtown records (elevation: 780-800 feet) to airport records (elevation: 1200 feet), and about 15 miles northwest, which hides a lot of the warming trend.

Based on the numbers, the March climate in Buffalo and Rochester during the late 19th century is about on par with recent (2010-2022) March weather in International Falls [37.4F mean] and Duluth, Minnesota [37.1F mean] and just about 2.5-3F warmer than Caribou, Maine [34.8F] - which is to say the 19th century March climate in Buffalo and Rochester is significantly closer to the modern March climate in Caribou, Maine than it is to the current climate at either location. 

I think this last point kind of serves to bring home the scope of the changes we are creating. Often times, this reality is lost in the focus on the numbers. But when you point to a concrete modern equivalent for those numbers, it really showcases how dramatically things have changed. Places like Duluth, International Falls and Caribou, Maine are thought of as unbelievably cold. Yet, many cities in in the lower Great Lakes saw comparable early spring temperatures to what those locations experience today.

Many of these recording stations were different back then. Buffalos was right on the lakeshore before 1940 and much cooler than the location it is now (airport) Rochester and Syracuse changed locations too. Not sure about Erie. Any data pre 1940 needs to be tossed at least for Buffalo, not sure when ROC and SYR moved.

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On 3/29/2023 at 1:46 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

Many of these recording stations were different back then. Buffalos was right on the lakeshore before 1940 and much cooler than the location it is now (airport) Rochester and Syracuse changed locations too. Not sure about Erie. Any data pre 1940 needs to be tossed at least for Buffalo, not sure when ROC and SYR moved.

Not much of a change over the six Marches with overlapping records at the two sites. The downtown site had a mean maximum of 36.7, versus 37.6 at the airport.

Buffalo Downtown

March

1939: 36.9

1940: 33.0

1941: 32.4

1942: 42.1

1943: 38.3

1944: 37.2

6-year average: 36.7

Buffalo Niagara International Airport

March

1939: 38.0 [+1.1]

1940: 32.3 [-0.7]

1941: 34.5 [+2.1]

1942: 42.4 [+0.3]

1943: 39.8 [+1.5]

1944: 38.5 [+1.3]

6-year average: 37.6 [+0.9]

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9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Not much of a change over the six Marches with overlapping records at the two sites. The downtown site had a mean maximum of 36.7, versus 37.6 at the airport.

Buffalo Downtown

March

1939: 36.9

1940: 33.0

1941: 32.4

1942: 42.1

1943: 38.3

1944: 37.2

6-year average: 36.7

Buffalo Niagara International Airport

March

1939: 38.0 [+1.1]

1940: 32.3 [-0.7]

1941: 34.5 [+2.1]

1942: 42.4 [+0.3]

1943: 39.8 [+1.5]

1944: 38.5 [+1.3]

6-year average: 37.6 [+0.9]

Also, there was no change to the annual mean temperature [less than a 0.1F increase]. So the annual means are directly comparable between the sites with no adjustments needed. The airport has mean high temperatures about 2 degrees warmer than downtown, but mean low temperatures about 2 degrees cooler than downtown.

  Buffalo Airport Buffalo Downtown Difference
1939 56.1 54.4 1.7
1940 53.7 52.1 1.6
1941 57.4 54.8 2.6
1942 56.3 53.7 2.6
1943 54.8 52.8 2
Avg 55.66 53.56 2.1
       
  Buffalo Airport Buffalo Downtown Difference
1939 38.5 41 -2.5
1940 36.7 39.1 -2.4
1941 39.2 41.8 -2.6
1942 39.5 41 -1.5
1943 37.7 38.7 -1
Avg 38.32 40.32 -2
       
  Buffalo Airport Buffalo Downtown Difference
1939 47.3 47.7 -0.4
1940 45.2 45.6 -0.4
1941 48.3 48.3 0
1942 47.9 47.3 0.6
1943 46.3 45.7 0.6
Avg 47 46.92 0.08
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Given there was essentially no change to the annual means from the site change, this is a particularly interesting analysis:

Last year with annual mean below 44: 1917 [43.7F]

Last year with annual mean below 45: 1926 [44.3F]

Last year with annual mean below 46: 1943 [45.6F]

Last year with annual mean below 47: 1996 [46.9F]

Last year with annual mean below 48: 2014 [47.2F]

I think it's safe to say it's impossible at this point for Buffalo to have an annual mean below 46F, and probably not too far off before we can say the same thing for 47F. Already been 27 years since the last sub-47F annual mean; however, it was only a couple of tenths warmer just 9 years ago. So I don't know if it can be completely ruled out.

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3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Not much of a change over the six Marches with overlapping records at the two sites. The downtown site had a mean maximum of 36.7, versus 37.6 at the airport.

Buffalo Downtown

March

1939: 36.9

1940: 33.0

1941: 32.4

1942: 42.1

1943: 38.3

1944: 37.2

6-year average: 36.7

Buffalo Niagara International Airport

March

1939: 38.0 [+1.1]

1940: 32.3 [-0.7]

1941: 34.5 [+2.1]

1942: 42.4 [+0.3]

1943: 39.8 [+1.5]

1944: 38.5 [+1.3]

6-year average: 37.6 [+0.9]

A degree is a massive difference in that timeframe 

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3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Also, there was no change to the annual mean temperature [less than a 0.1F increase]. So the annual means are directly comparable between the sites with no adjustments needed. The airport has mean high temperatures about 2 degrees warmer than downtown, but mean low temperatures about 2 degrees cooler than downtown.

  Buffalo Airport Buffalo Downtown Difference
1939 56.1 54.4 1.7
1940 53.7 52.1 1.6
1941 57.4 54.8 2.6
1942 56.3 53.7 2.6
1943 54.8 52.8 2
Avg 55.66 53.56 2.1
       
  Buffalo Airport Buffalo Downtown Difference
1939 38.5 41 -2.5
1940 36.7 39.1 -2.4
1941 39.2 41.8 -2.6
1942 39.5 41 -1.5
1943 37.7 38.7 -1
Avg 38.32 40.32 -2
       
  Buffalo Airport Buffalo Downtown Difference
1939 47.3 47.7 -0.4
1940 45.2 45.6 -0.4
1941 48.3 48.3 0
1942 47.9 47.3 0.6
1943 46.3 45.7 0.6
Avg 47 46.92 0.08

This data is flawed. 5 yrs isn’t nearly enough data to justify a conclusion. It’s clearly colder along lakeshore than at airport. 

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3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Given there was essentially no change to the annual means from the site change, this is a particularly interesting analysis:

Last year with annual mean below 44: 1917 [43.7F]

Last year with annual mean below 45: 1926 [44.3F]

Last year with annual mean below 46: 1943 [45.6F]

Last year with annual mean below 47: 1996 [46.9F]

Last year with annual mean below 48: 2014 [47.2F]

I think it's safe to say it's impossible at this point for Buffalo to have an annual mean below 46F, and probably not too far off before we can say the same thing for 47F. Already been 27 years since the last sub-47F annual mean; however, it was only a couple of tenths warmer just 9 years ago. So I don't know if it can be completely ruled out.

We’ve discussed on our discord about the urban heating effect at Buffalo. Check out some of the overnight lows in summer this year and see if you see anything fishy. Love this kind of data 

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